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#1
August 21st 10, 08:46 PM
posted to rec.aviation.soaring
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WX forecasts
We've had a pretty crummy soaring season this year in So Cal.
But has anyone else noted that the WX predictions from XC Skies and Blipmaps seem to be too optimistic? Sure seems that way to me. Anyone else noticed that? Dan WO 
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#2
August 22nd 10, 03:36 AM
posted to rec.aviation.soaring
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WX forecasts
On Aug 21, 12:46*pm, Dan wrote:
We've had a pretty crummy soaring season this year in So Cal. But has anyone else noted that the WX predictions from XC Skies and Blipmaps seem to be too optimistic? Sure seems that way to me. Anyone else noticed that? Dan WO Yes, but I don't think it has been any MORE optimistic than last year. It's just that when it predicts lift to 20k, and the lift only goes to 18k, we don't get too worked up. When the forecast is for lift to 14k, and we only get to 12k, it will make a significant difference in your flight.
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#3
August 22nd 10, 02:29 PM
posted to rec.aviation.soaring
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WX forecasts
Yes, but I don't think it has been any MORE optimistic than last
year. *It's just that when it predicts lift to 20k, and the lift only goes to 18k, we don't get too worked up. *When the forecast is for lift to 14k, and we only get to 12k, it will make a significant difference in your flight. I tend to agree. Actually, for the El Mirage area, the RUC forecast seems to be right on, the NAM, as usual, is a little optomistic as regards cu's. Sometimes we get really good days in early Sept, so don't write off the season yet... aerodyne
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#4
August 23rd 10, 12:31 AM
posted to rec.aviation.soaring
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WX forecasts
On Aug 22, 6:29*am, wrote:
Yes, but I don't think it has been any MORE optimistic than last year. *It's just that when it predicts lift to 20k, and the lift only goes to 18k, we don't get too worked up. *When the forecast is for lift to 14k, and we only get to 12k, it will make a significant difference in your flight. I tend to agree. *Actually, for the El Mirage area, the RUC forecast seems to be right on, the NAM, as usual, is a little optomistic as regards cu's. Sometimes we get really good days in early Sept, so don't write off the season yet... aerodyne The newer experimental Rapid Refresh model (soon to become the operational RUC) is significantly better. I have been using it for several months in Arizona and it consistently outperforms RUC, NAM and GFS, at least in the short-term. It has sufficient spacial and time resolution that it can forecast areas of individual storms and convergence. It is available (usually) on the NOAA soundings page, but loads slowly as it is experimental. When it differs significantly from RUC and NAM, I go with RR. Mike Mike
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