Question on ditching an Orion

In 2001 a US reconisance plane fell into Chinese
hands for full examination
(for fuller background, read the below).

If pilot Osburn had tried to fly as far as he could
toward an 'authorized' airport and had to 'ditch'
in the open ocean, what were the chances of
the 24 crew surviving?

http://readersupportednews.org/off-s...-online-threat
Annals of National Security
The Online Threat
Should we be worried about a cyber war?
by Seymour M. Hersh
November 1, 2010
On April 1, 2001, an American EP-3E Aries II reconnaissance plane on an
eavesdropping mission collided with a Chinese interceptor jet over the South
China Sea, triggering the first international crisis of George W. Bush's
Administration. The Chinese jet crashed, and its pilot was killed, but the
pilot of the American aircraft, Navy Lieutenant Shane Osborn, managed to
make an emergency landing at a Chinese F-8 fighter base on Hainan Island,
fifteen miles from the mainland. Osborn later published a memoir, in which
he described the "incessant jackhammer vibration" as the plane fell eight
thousand feet in thirty seconds, before he regained control.

The plane carried twenty-four officers and enlisted men and women attached
to the Naval Security Group Command, a field component of the National
Security Agency. They were repatriated after eleven days; the plane stayed
behind ----

"Eugene Griessel" wrote in message...
"a425couple" wrote:
In 2001 a US reconisance plane fell into Chinese
hands for full examination.
If pilot Osburn had tried to fly as far as he could
toward an 'authorized' airport and had to 'ditch'
in the open ocean, what were the chances of
the 24 crew surviving?

What a question. If you are in a head-on collision with another car
what are your chances of surviving?

I'm sorry you do not like it.

They range from 0% to 100%, don't they?

The reason I asked it on these newsgroups, is that I thought
there might be some who could give historical information
to pin it down better than "from 0% to 100%".

He was able to control it well enough to fly it 70 miles
and land it at an airport (Red Chinese).
Have any Orions been 'ditched' i.e. controled landings
on water?

If he ditched well the thing should have floated long enough
for the crew to take to the dinghies. Thereafter it would have been a
case of how far away (and how competent) was the rescue. If he made a
dog's mess of the ditching they could have all gone down with it.
It's a low-wing aircraft so it should ditch fairly well and float well
too. Sea-state permitting of course. A reasonably competent pilot
should have been able to handle it if he sea was playing along.
Eugene L Griessel

On Oct 28, 7:37*am, "a425couple" wrote:
"Eugene Griessel" wrote in message...
*"a425couple" wrote:
In 2001 a US reconisance plane fell into Chinese
hands for full examination.
If pilot Osburn had tried to fly as far as he could
toward an 'authorized' airport and had to 'ditch'
in the open ocean, what were the chances of
the 24 crew surviving?

What a question. *If you are in a head-on collision with another car
what are your chances of surviving? *

I'm sorry you do not like it.

They range from 0% to 100%, don't they? *

The reason I asked it on these newsgroups, is that I thought
there might be some who could give historical information
to pin it down better than "from 0% to 100%".

He was able to control it well enough to fly it 70 miles
and land it at an airport (Red Chinese).
Have any Orions been 'ditched' *i.e. controled landings
on water?



If he ditched well the thing should have floated long enough
for the crew to take to the dinghies. *Thereafter it would have been a
case of how far away (and how competent) was the rescue. *If he made a
dog's mess of the ditching they could have all gone down with it.
It's a low-wing aircraft so it should ditch fairly well and float well
too. *Sea-state permitting of course. *A reasonably competent pilot
should have been able to handle it if he sea was playing along.
Eugene L Griessel- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

yes, one did -- all (or nearly all) of the enlisted aircrew died when
they went down in the Northern Pacific. The fallout for that event
was the requirement that all enlisted aircrews go to survival schools
and get some training before they end up in a raft (prior to that, it
was possible to bootstrap into aircrew status and not necessarily go
through the aircrew pipeline that would include all that).

The P-3 is not a very good platform for ditching -- relatively short
wings, long tail that would likely pitch you forward if you trying
aero-braking in surface effect at the final moment -- I wouldn't do
it. Personally, I would have had the crew bail out over land, radio
the Chinese that the aircraft was not controllable at slow speeds and
aim it for the nearest mountain. Reverse engineering doesn't work
well with melted aluminum.

During my very limited time on P-3s (14 months), we had one really
exciting flight that lasted less than half an hour, trying to get all
the way airborne in a 3-engine, overloaded Orion on a 90-degree day.
We skimmed the lagoon, flying between ships on our way out to sea,
hoping we could get it all in hand. Eventually, we got everything
sorted out, but in the meantime, we discussed ditching and ruled it
out -- we prepared for ditching but the likelihood was that we
wouldn't make it, so it was more "prepare to crash -- get out as best
you can and good luck" as opposed to "get the raft after we settle
into the water".

In a similar situation (balky helicopter nearing the point of falling
out of the sky) we had the choice to land on a Soviet aircraft carrier
(Novorosiisk) or ditching in the Northern Pacific -- the two pilots
voted for landing on the Soviet ship, delivering an intact modern
(cof) ASW helo into our enemies hands. My rather loud dissenting vote
was that we should crash it into the bridge of the Novoro (we had
intel that Admiral Gorchkov was on board - the modern era's version of
Admiral Doenitz or Isoroku Yamamoto), or anything else but to give it
to the damn Russians. Fate intervened -- our tiny frigate realized
we were off the radio and likely in trouble and had doubled back to
reach us. We got aboard, barely, and the helicopter never flew
again.

Ultimately, the pilot has responsibility for the safety of his crew --
but when it involves spyplanes or other strategic assets that would
obviously help the enemy, crews should understand that every effort
must be made to keep those aircraft out of the hands of the enemy. I
was appalled by the EP-3 pilots decision to land in China..

v/r Gordon

"Eugene Griessel" wrote in message...
"a425couple" wrote:
"Eugene Griessel" wrote in message...
"a425couple" wrote:
In 2001 a US reconisance plane fell into Chinese
hands for full examination.
If pilot Osburn had tried to fly as far as he could
toward an 'authorized' airport and had to 'ditch'
in the open ocean, what were the chances of
the 24 crew surviving?

What a question. If you are in a head-on collision with another car
what are your chances of surviving?

I'm sorry you do not like it.
They range from 0% to 100%, don't they?
The reason I asked it on these newsgroups, is that I thought
there might be some who could give historical information
to pin it down better than "from 0% to 100%".

Explain how anyone could do that?
No matter how many prior successful ditchings have occurred you have
no way of knowing the one you are heading into will be survivable.
You can console yourself with prior statistics until you are blue in
the face but you will not know until you either survive or otherwise.
Each ditching is in a way unique - just as most crash-landings are.
People have walked away from mangled twisted burning wreckage without
a crease in their trousers and others have been killed when the
aircraft appears undamaged. I recall a Spitfire making a controlled
wheels down "crash-landing" on a long stretch of sandy beach due to
engine failure. Ideal, but at the very last the thing tipped up -
and the pilot having loosened his harness for a quick getout was
thrown out of the cockpit and his head contacted the only rock in 1/2
a mile in any direction. Those days they still wore leather helmets
otherwise he might have survived. The aircraft was righted, the engine
problem repaired and it was flown back to base - not even the prop was
damaged. The pilot however had a load of mush in a leather helmet
where his head used to be.

He was able to control it well enough to fly it 70 miles
and land it at an airport (Red Chinese).
Have any Orions been 'ditched' i.e. controled landings
on water?

Is something else going on with you today Eugene?
(From reading a question to launching a criticism in 12 minutes!?)

Explain how anyone could do that?

Odds and probabilities.
That is how most of us make many decisions each
and every day. Yes, every action MIGHT result in
disaster. But we still get out and do things.
But we do try to do things in a reasonable manner
to increase the odds of a reasonable outcome.
And this is even more important when something
has already gone badly wrong.

Even with your logic, and example. By the same token
Osborn trying to land at the airport could have gone
very wrong and killed everyone.
He considered odds and probabilities.
What likely were some of the prior facts that he considered in
his calculations?

{ 'No matter how many prior successful *
* insert choice of
sail boatings / sports car races / vacations / rock climbs
have occurred you have no way of knowing the one you are
heading into will be survivable. You can console yourself with prior
statistics until you are blue in the face but you will not know until
you either survive or otherwise.' }

"Gordon" wrote in message...
- "a425couple" wrote:
- "Eugene Griessel" wrote in message...
- "a425couple" wrote:
- In 2001 a US (big snip)
-Ultimately, the pilot has responsibility for the safety of his crew --
-but when it involves spyplanes or other strategic assets that would
-obviously help the enemy, crews should understand that every effort
-must be made to keep those aircraft out of the hands of the enemy. I
-was appalled by the EP-3 pilots decision to land in China..
-v/r Gordon

Thank you Gordon.

On 28 Oct, 16:31, Gordon wrote:
On Oct 28, 7:37*am, "a425couple" wrote:





"Eugene Griessel" wrote in message...
*"a425couple" wrote:
In 2001 a US reconisance plane fell into Chinese
hands for full examination.
If pilot Osburn had tried to fly as far as he could
toward an 'authorized' airport and had to 'ditch'
in the open ocean, what were the chances of
the 24 crew surviving?

What a question. *If you are in a head-on collision with another car
what are your chances of surviving? *

I'm sorry you do not like it.

They range from 0% to 100%, don't they? *

The reason I asked it on these newsgroups, is that I thought
there might be some who could give historical information
to pin it down better than "from 0% to 100%".

He was able to control it well enough to fly it 70 miles
and land it at an airport (Red Chinese).
Have any Orions been 'ditched' *i.e. controled landings
on water?

If he ditched well the thing should have floated long enough
for the crew to take to the dinghies. *Thereafter it would have been a
case of how far away (and how competent) was the rescue. *If he made a
dog's mess of the ditching they could have all gone down with it.
It's a low-wing aircraft so it should ditch fairly well and float well
too. *Sea-state permitting of course. *A reasonably competent pilot
should have been able to handle it if he sea was playing along.
Eugene L Griessel- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

yes, one did -- all (or nearly all) of the enlisted aircrew died when
they went down in the Northern Pacific. *The fallout for that event
was the requirement that all enlisted aircrews go to survival schools
and get some training before they end up in a raft (prior to that, it
was possible to bootstrap into aircrew status and not necessarily go
through the aircrew pipeline that would include all that).

The P-3 is not a very good platform for ditching -- relatively short
wings, long tail that would likely pitch you forward if you trying
aero-braking in surface effect at the final moment -- *I wouldn't do
it. *Personally, I would have had the crew bail out over land, radio
the Chinese that the aircraft was not controllable at slow speeds and
aim it for the nearest mountain. *Reverse engineering doesn't work
well with melted aluminum.

During my very limited time on P-3s (14 months), we had one really
exciting flight that lasted less than half an hour, trying to get all
the way airborne in a 3-engine, overloaded Orion on a 90-degree day.
We skimmed the lagoon, flying between ships on our way out to sea,
hoping we could get it all in hand. * Eventually, we got everything
sorted out, but in the meantime, we discussed ditching and ruled it
out -- we prepared for ditching but the likelihood was that we
wouldn't make it, so it was more "prepare to crash -- get out as best
you can and good luck" as opposed to "get the raft after we settle
into the water".

In a similar situation (balky helicopter nearing the point of falling
out of the sky) we had the choice to land on a Soviet aircraft carrier
(Novorosiisk) or ditching in the Northern Pacific -- the two pilots
voted for landing on the Soviet ship, delivering an intact modern
(cof) ASW helo into our enemies hands. *My rather loud dissenting vote
was that we should crash it into the bridge of the Novoro *(we had
intel that Admiral Gorchkov was on board - the modern era's version of
Admiral Doenitz or Isoroku Yamamoto), or anything else but to give it
to the damn Russians. * Fate intervened -- our tiny frigate realized
we were off the radio and likely in trouble and had doubled back to
reach us. *We got aboard, barely, and the helicopter never flew
again.

Ultimately, the pilot has responsibility for the safety of his crew --
but when it involves spyplanes or other strategic assets that would
obviously help the enemy, crews should understand that every effort
must be made to keep those aircraft out of the hands of the enemy. *I
was appalled by the EP-3 pilots decision to land in China..

v/r Gordon- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Fascinating Gordon, thank you, However it leads to another question,
how easy is it to bale out of a P-3, especially the last man out?

Guy

On Thu, 28 Oct 2010 06:44:33 -0700, "a425couple"
wrote:

In 2001 a US reconisance plane fell into Chinese
hands for full examination
(for fuller background, read the below).

If pilot Osburn had tried to fly as far as he could
toward an 'authorized' airport and had to 'ditch'
in the open ocean, what were the chances of
the 24 crew surviving?

There have been at least two P-3 ditchings.

One was in the North Pacific after a "prop fails to feather" emergency
(a VERY serious failure in a P-3). They frequently lead to engine
fires, which is what happened here.

http://www.vpnavy.com/vp9586.html

I did not, in quick search, find a the story but I'm sure some time
with Google will turn it up. It was written up at least in APPROACH
in years past.

One was in the Gulf:

http://www.vpnavy.com/vp47ditch.html

Ditching at sea is a very dicey proposition if the aircraft is
undamaged and easily controlable. With major airframe damage it's not
something I'd look forward to. Further, the A/C did not KNOW what his
status actually was. For all he knew a wing was going to fall off
without much warning. So picking even a potentially hostile airfield
was probably the wisest choice under the circumstances.

An ASW crew is smaller than an ELINT crew so there is the question of
egress.

The P-3 is a nice aircraft to fly with boosted controlls. Boost out
it's a real chore to keep it under control.

On Oct 28, 10:56*am, "a425couple" wrote:
"Gordon" wrote in message...
- "a425couple" wrote:

- "Eugene Griessel" wrote in message...
- "a425couple" wrote:
- In 2001 a US (big snip)
-Ultimately, the pilot has responsibility for the safety of his crew --
-but when it involves spyplanes or other strategic assets that would
-obviously help the enemy, crews should understand that every effort
-must be made to keep those aircraft out of the hands of the enemy. *I
-was appalled by the EP-3 pilots decision to land in China..
-v/r Gordon

Thank you Gordon.

Which is why you tey to destroy as much as you can as they did. most
secret stuff first. Like when the U boat gets the surrender order to
the merchantman. once the captain shows up, its where is the codebook
and log, pretty much standard answer was, those went over the side
when you surfaced.

They should have only had current code cards for the encryption gear,
most of the rest is, lets get our frustrations out on the government
issued equipment.

Supposedly we did learn from USS Pueblo where way too much COMSEC
stuff was packed into that boat.

On Oct 28, 11:11*am, guy wrote:
On 28 Oct, 16:31, Gordon wrote:



On Oct 28, 7:37*am, "a425couple" wrote:

"Eugene Griessel" wrote in message...
*"a425couple" wrote:
In 2001 a US reconisance plane fell into Chinese
hands for full examination.
If pilot Osburn had tried to fly as far as he could
toward an 'authorized' airport and had to 'ditch'
in the open ocean, what were the chances of
the 24 crew surviving?

What a question. *If you are in a head-on collision with another car
what are your chances of surviving? *

I'm sorry you do not like it.

They range from 0% to 100%, don't they? *

The reason I asked it on these newsgroups, is that I thought
there might be some who could give historical information
to pin it down better than "from 0% to 100%".

He was able to control it well enough to fly it 70 miles
and land it at an airport (Red Chinese).
Have any Orions been 'ditched' *i.e. controled landings
on water?

If he ditched well the thing should have floated long enough
for the crew to take to the dinghies. *Thereafter it would have been a
case of how far away (and how competent) was the rescue. *If he made a
dog's mess of the ditching they could have all gone down with it.
It's a low-wing aircraft so it should ditch fairly well and float well
too. *Sea-state permitting of course. *A reasonably competent pilot
should have been able to handle it if he sea was playing along.
Eugene L Griessel- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

yes, one did -- all (or nearly all) of the enlisted aircrew died when
they went down in the Northern Pacific. *The fallout for that event
was the requirement that all enlisted aircrews go to survival schools
and get some training before they end up in a raft (prior to that, it
was possible to bootstrap into aircrew status and not necessarily go
through the aircrew pipeline that would include all that).

The P-3 is not a very good platform for ditching -- relatively short
wings, long tail that would likely pitch you forward if you trying
aero-braking in surface effect at the final moment -- *I wouldn't do
it. *Personally, I would have had the crew bail out over land, radio
the Chinese that the aircraft was not controllable at slow speeds and
aim it for the nearest mountain. *Reverse engineering doesn't work
well with melted aluminum.

During my very limited time on P-3s (14 months), we had one really
exciting flight that lasted less than half an hour, trying to get all
the way airborne in a 3-engine, overloaded Orion on a 90-degree day.
We skimmed the lagoon, flying between ships on our way out to sea,
hoping we could get it all in hand. * Eventually, we got everything
sorted out, but in the meantime, we discussed ditching and ruled it
out -- we prepared for ditching but the likelihood was that we
wouldn't make it, so it was more "prepare to crash -- get out as best
you can and good luck" as opposed to "get the raft after we settle
into the water".

In a similar situation (balky helicopter nearing the point of falling
out of the sky) we had the choice to land on a Soviet aircraft carrier
(Novorosiisk) or ditching in the Northern Pacific -- the two pilots
voted for landing on the Soviet ship, delivering an intact modern
(cof) ASW helo into our enemies hands. *My rather loud dissenting vote
was that we should crash it into the bridge of the Novoro *(we had
intel that Admiral Gorchkov was on board - the modern era's version of
Admiral Doenitz or Isoroku Yamamoto), or anything else but to give it
to the damn Russians. * Fate intervened -- our tiny frigate realized
we were off the radio and likely in trouble and had doubled back to
reach us. *We got aboard, barely, and the helicopter never flew
again.

Ultimately, the pilot has responsibility for the safety of his crew --
but when it involves spyplanes or other strategic assets that would
obviously help the enemy, crews should understand that every effort
must be made to keep those aircraft out of the hands of the enemy. *I
was appalled by the EP-3 pilots decision to land in China..

v/r Gordon- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Fascinating Gordon, thank you, However it leads to another question,
how easy is it to bale out of a P-3, especially the last man out?

Guy

Ideally, its straight and level then set the autopilot. realistically,
it all depends. even if you have an ejection seat, if you're out of
parameters, you're a goner. They probably would have had no problems,
but in a flyable airplane, much safer to land. You could have chute
problems, separation during bailout, drown getting out of the chute.
Its like throwing a pass in football, 2 out of 3 things that could
happen are bad.

a425couple wrote:
"Gordon" wrote in message...
- "a425couple" wrote:
- "Eugene Griessel" wrote in message...
- "a425couple" wrote:
- In 2001 a US (big snip)
-Ultimately, the pilot has responsibility for the safety of his crew
--
-but when it involves spyplanes or other strategic assets that would
-obviously help the enemy, crews should understand that every effort
-must be made to keep those aircraft out of the hands of the enemy. I
-was appalled by the EP-3 pilots decision to land in China..
-v/r Gordon

Thank you Gordon.

I took the liberty of looking up Gordon's website: www.oldboldpilots.org

Some really good reading, including bios, there. Lots of distinguished
members too.

- nilita