El Nino impact on NZ soaring

According to the NOAA this year will be a El Nino (ENSO) year
(http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2317.htm), but likely a
weak one. My trusty copy of The New Zealand Weather Book tells me that
in a negative Southern Oscillaton (El Nino) there are more frequent SW
flows with more rainfall W of the Alps and less in the rain shadow
behind the range.

So, my question is does anyone have experience with how this impacts
soaring conditions at Omarama? Seems like it would set the stage for
potentially more wave flights in the southern summer this year. Or is
this just hopefully thinking and my week of soaring in early Dec will
just be as randomly unpredictable as always..

BTW, 1998 was a strong negative ENSO, 1999 and 2000 were negatives and
the last three years have been positives.

For futher discussion, it seems that strong negative ENSO events tend
to dry up the North American Southwest. Anyone notice a correlation to
soaring conditions in CA/NV?

Thanks for your thoughts,

-Richard