IFR just 5.4% of the time

As I sit on the ground, on a day off, not flying due to (yet more)
ice, I thought I'd share these interesting results with the group...

Pilots are always surprised when I tell them that Mary and I have
traveled the country extensively by light plane for 12 years, all
VFR. While it's true that we have to be flexible, my experience has
been that it is rare, indeed, that we must cancel a flight due to IFR
conditions that we would have flown in our Pathfinder (a Piper
Cherokee 235), even with the rating.

Many people have questioned the validity of our experience, wondering
if we scud-run everywhere, or are simply not telling the truth. Well,
in a strange twist of fate, a friend of mine recently completed a
study of ASOS observations from 2002 - 2004 here in Iowa City. His
primary goal was to determine prevailing wind direction while IFR
conditions existed, but he inadvertently turned up some interesting
data that supports my informal observations.

During that two year period, he looked at ~33,000 recorded hourly
observations at KIOW. Just 1765 of those observations were IFR, or
5.4%.

Now, of course, there were an unknown number of marginal VFR
conditions in the data set, but these results pretty well confirm my
(non-scientific) observation that showed us canceling just a handful
of flights each year due to weather, and a truly tiny set that were
canceled due to "soft IFR" conditions that we would feel safe flying
Atlas in. Most of our IFR weather in Iowa City is due to icing, fog,
or thunderstorms, meaning that we're not about to challenge Mother
Nature in a Piper Spam Can anyway.

What does this mean? A few conclusions:

1. VFR conditions prevail roughly 95% of the time, even here in the
rough-and-tumble Midwest.
2. VFR cross country flying can be safely done, with the right
attitude, even in marginal equipment like most of us fly.
3. Obtaining the instrument rating is an excellent exercise, and makes
you a much more precise (and thus proficient) pilot, but unless you're
moving up to heavier metal, it won't help you much.
4. This explains why just half of all pilots have pursued the
instrument rating, and why a very small percentage of instrument rated
pilots are current or proficient. There simply isn't much need for
it, unless you're flying on a schedule, in rated equipment.

My purpose in sharing this is not to belittle those who have obtained
the instrument rating. On the contrary, I am a much better pilot
thanks to the instrument training I have obtained, and intend to
finish up the rating when we have finished the hotel remodeling.

However, I no long harbor the notion that an IR is going to help us
fly more, or longer, or more regularly -- at least not until we can
afford something like a Pilatus.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

On 2/28/2007 12:08:47 PM, "Jay Honeck" wrote:

Most of our IFR weather in Iowa City is due to icing, fog,
or thunderstorms, meaning that we're not about to challenge Mother
Nature in a Piper Spam Can anyway.

Is this your informal observation or that of a weather researcher?


--
Peter

-- at least not until we can
afford something like a Pilatus.

Let me know when you're ready for a PC-12. We'll partner with ya
Jim

Most of our IFR weather in Iowa City is due to icing, fog,
or thunderstorms, meaning that we're not about to challenge Mother
Nature in a Piper Spam Can anyway.

Is this your informal observation or that of a weather researcher?

Well, I took a few meteorology classes in college... ;-)

No, that's my informal observations, after living here for 9+ years
and spending waaay too much time at the airport...

:-)
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Let me know when you're ready for a PC-12. We'll partner with ya
Jim

The cool thing is, a PC-12 is so fast that a multi-state partnership
would actually WORK!

:-)
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

And haul BOTH our families!
Jim

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message
s.com...
Let me know when you're ready for a PC-12. We'll partner with ya
Jim

The cool thing is, a PC-12 is so fast that a multi-state partnership
would actually WORK!

:-)
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

On Feb 28, 11:08 am, "Jay Honeck" wrote:
As I sit on the ground, on a day off, not flying due to (yet more)
ice, I thought I'd share these interesting results with the group...

Pilots are always surprised when I tell them that Mary and I have
traveled the country extensively by light plane for 12 years, all
VFR. While it's true that we have to be flexible, my experience has
been that it is rare, indeed, that we must cancel a flight due to IFR
conditions that we would have flown in our Pathfinder (a Piper
Cherokee 235), even with the rating.

As another VFR pilot I am not surprised.
--
Gene Seibel
Tales of Flight - http://pad39a.com/gene/tales.html
Because I fly, I envy no one.

Point made, and it coincides with my observation that most of my IFR
flying ends up in visual conditions.

Just 1765 of those observations were IFR, or 5.4%.

That's at one airport. To complete a =flight= VFR, both airports have
to be VFR, and so does the intervening space. The further apart the
airports are, the more chance for IFR conditions, but also the more
opportunities to go around them.

and a truly tiny set that were
canceled due to "soft IFR" conditions that we
would feel safe flying Atlas in.

What conditions are those? Sounds like you would be comfortable making
up your own rules. Would you be comfortable letting everyone make up
their own rules?

However, I no long harbor the notion that an IR is going to help us
fly more, or longer, or more regularly -- at least not until we can
afford something like a Pilatus.

That is probably true for your style of flying. (flexible as to time
and destination)

Jose
--
Humans are pack animals. Above all things, they have a deep need to
follow something, be it a leader, a creed, or a mob. Whosoever fully
understands this holds the world in his hands.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

As another VFR pilot I am not surprised.

I know you're not, Gene -- but you're the exception. You've flown
more cross-country VFR flights than any active pilot I know.

One thing I think the IR *does* give many pilots is the confidence
boost they needed to launch on a truly cross-country flight. The fact
that their enhanced weather-handling ability is largely illusory
(again, unless they're flying a Pilatus) is irrelevant -- the rating
gives them the extra confidence necessary to launch themselves into
the unknown.

"Oz didn't give nuthin' to the Tin Man, that he didn't already
have..."

My observation is that most pilots rarely leave their home state.
Many local pilots rarely leave a five-county area.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

and a truly tiny set that were
canceled due to "soft IFR" conditions that we
would feel safe flying Atlas in.

What conditions are those? Sounds like you would be comfortable making
up your own rules. Would you be comfortable letting everyone make up
their own rules?

Ah, I guess that wasn't clear. That line should read:

"...that were canceled due to 'soft IFR' conditions that we would feel
safe flying Atlas in IF WE HAD THE INSTRUMENT RATING."
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"