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#1
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Real stats on engine failures?
Howdy. I was discussing with a friend of mine my concerns about flying
single-engine planes at night or in hard IFR, due to the possibility of engine failure. My buddy is a CFI/CFII/ATP as well as an A&P, about 3500 hours, and been around airplanes for a long time, so I tend to give credence to his experiences. He asked me how often I thought a piston engine had an in-flight engine failure. I guestimated once every 10,000 hours or so. He said that was *dramatically* over-estimating the failure rate. He said that in his experience it is at least 40,000 to 50,000 hours per in-flight engine failure. The place where he works sometimes as a mechanic has plenty of planes come in for overhauls and annuals, and he estimates that for every plane that has had an engine failure before TBO, at least 20-30 make it to TBO without any failure (which would extrapolate to a similar figure). The flight school he teaches at has 7 Cessnas used for primary training and rental that have flown at least 40,000 hours total in the six years he has been there, and they have not experienced a single engine failure. I emailed Lycoming, and (unsurprisingly) they told me they did not keep records about engine failure rates. So I'd like to find out if anyone has done any objective analysis of certificated, piston-engine failure rates in light airplanes. I have seen all kinds of 'guesses', but little in the way of objective facts. After analyzing NTSB accident data and comparing to annual GA flight-hours, I'm starting to think my friend is on the right track, but that is a relatively small sample, and has some methodologial flaws. It's funny. I know 20,000 hour CFIs who have never had an engine failure, and I also know 300 hour PP-ASELs who have had engine failures. Just for giggles, I asked 8 pilot friends/relatives if they had ever had an engine failure. The only 'yes' was a relative who lost an engine after takeoff on his first solo cross-country in 1958. And I know one other pilot who had an engine failure, who I wasn't able to talk to. So what is it? If the engine-failure rate is one failure for every 50,000 flight hours, I'll feel much less reticent about night/IFR single-engine flying than if it is one in 10,000 hours. Anybody have any facts or hard data, or have any idea where I might be able to track some down? Thanks, Cap |
#2
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In article , Captain
Wubba wrote: So what is it? If the engine-failure rate is one failure for every 50,000 flight hours, I'll feel much less reticent about night/IFR single-engine flying than if it is one in 10,000 hours. Anybody have any facts or hard data, or have any idea where I might be able to track some down? The real question is, "How do you determine when it it your turn?" :-))) |
#4
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In 7000 hours I had one engine "failure," which was just a loose hose
between the turbocharger and intake manifold. Engine didn't really fail, it just lost boost on that side. I've had some engine anomalies, but nothing that would meet the definition of failure. I would tend to agree that honest-to-goodness failures are very rare when considered in the context of total operating hours for all powered aircraft. Bob Gardner "Captain Wubba" wrote in message om... Howdy. I was discussing with a friend of mine my concerns about flying single-engine planes at night or in hard IFR, due to the possibility of engine failure. My buddy is a CFI/CFII/ATP as well as an A&P, about 3500 hours, and been around airplanes for a long time, so I tend to give credence to his experiences. He asked me how often I thought a piston engine had an in-flight engine failure. I guestimated once every 10,000 hours or so. He said that was *dramatically* over-estimating the failure rate. He said that in his experience it is at least 40,000 to 50,000 hours per in-flight engine failure. The place where he works sometimes as a mechanic has plenty of planes come in for overhauls and annuals, and he estimates that for every plane that has had an engine failure before TBO, at least 20-30 make it to TBO without any failure (which would extrapolate to a similar figure). The flight school he teaches at has 7 Cessnas used for primary training and rental that have flown at least 40,000 hours total in the six years he has been there, and they have not experienced a single engine failure. I emailed Lycoming, and (unsurprisingly) they told me they did not keep records about engine failure rates. So I'd like to find out if anyone has done any objective analysis of certificated, piston-engine failure rates in light airplanes. I have seen all kinds of 'guesses', but little in the way of objective facts. After analyzing NTSB accident data and comparing to annual GA flight-hours, I'm starting to think my friend is on the right track, but that is a relatively small sample, and has some methodologial flaws. It's funny. I know 20,000 hour CFIs who have never had an engine failure, and I also know 300 hour PP-ASELs who have had engine failures. Just for giggles, I asked 8 pilot friends/relatives if they had ever had an engine failure. The only 'yes' was a relative who lost an engine after takeoff on his first solo cross-country in 1958. And I know one other pilot who had an engine failure, who I wasn't able to talk to. So what is it? If the engine-failure rate is one failure for every 50,000 flight hours, I'll feel much less reticent about night/IFR single-engine flying than if it is one in 10,000 hours. Anybody have any facts or hard data, or have any idea where I might be able to track some down? Thanks, Cap |
#5
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Know a bloke well with over 15'000 hours, he has had no engine failures. He has had however 4 self inficted engine failures, these were fuel system failures. Mostly failure to put enough in, failure to check for water contamination properly, failure to know the aircraft fuel system. This blokes expirence is all single engine, going from little Lyc's to Radial's and turbine. Most Iv'e come across in the last 25 years aviating have had no problems, usually if there are it's a maintaince issue or operator induced. -- studentpilot ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Posted via OziPilots Online [ http://www.OziPilotsOnline.com.au ] - A website for Australian Pilots regardless of when, why, or what they fly - |
#6
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#7
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"Captain Wubba" wrote in message
om... Howdy. I was discussing with a friend of mine my concerns about flying single-engine planes at night or in hard IFR, due to the possibility of engine failure. My buddy is a CFI/CFII/ATP as well as an A&P, about 3500 hours, and been around airplanes for a long time, so I tend to give credence to his experiences. He asked me how often I thought a piston engine had an in-flight engine failure. I guestimated once every 10,000 hours or so. He said that was *dramatically* over-estimating the failure rate. He said that in his experience it is I would say the failure rate is not uniform, and would depend a lot on how the aircraft are maintained and utilized. Ex: the large univesity flight school I went to that flies on the order of 10,000 hours a year, has had no engine failures in the past 10 years that weren't due to pilot error. However, the company I towed banners for had two complete engine failures and two partial power failures in the two 3 month seasons I worked for them. In my 1100 hours, I've had one quit on takeoff when a mag that was improperly torqued down slipped and put the ignition way out of time, and one partial power loss when a leaky oil control ring finally let go and fouled out one cylinder. And be careful using NTSB data for your analysis, as not all engine failures are cause for a report; both of mine ended with me making it home and no bent metal, so they aren't in the database. -- Mike |
#8
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"Mike O'Malley" wrote in message ... "Captain Wubba" wrote in message om... Howdy. I was discussing with a friend of mine my concerns about flying single-engine planes at night or in hard IFR, due to the possibility of engine failure. My buddy is a CFI/CFII/ATP as well as an A&P, about 3500 hours, and been around airplanes for a long time, so I tend to give credence to his experiences. He asked me how often I thought a piston engine had an in-flight engine failure. I guestimated once every 10,000 hours or so. He said that was *dramatically* over-estimating the failure rate. He said that in his experience it is I would say the failure rate is not uniform, and would depend a lot on how the aircraft are maintained and utilized. Ex: the large univesity flight school I went to that flies on the order of 10,000 hours a year, has had no engine failures in the past 10 years that weren't due to pilot error. However, the company I towed banners for had two complete engine failures and two partial power failures in the two 3 month seasons I worked for them. In my 1100 hours, I've had one quit on takeoff when a mag that was improperly torqued down slipped and put the ignition way out of time, and one partial power loss when a leaky oil control ring finally let go and fouled out one cylinder. And be careful using NTSB data for your analysis, as not all engine failures are cause for a report; both of mine ended with me making it home and no bent metal, so they aren't in the database. I had an engine failure (sort of on landing) when a plug failed. I noticed it after landing at Everglades City. I put on some power to turn and backtrack and boy did the engine run rough. I then spent a couple of hours speculating about what would have been the result if I had screwed up the final approach and had to go around again. The engine did not like full power. My home base runways are small than Everglades City so it was not too bad. |
#9
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I don't have any personally but I have a friend that has had three in
3500hrs. One connecting rod failure in a 210. A crankshaft failure in an Azetec and I forget the details of the third failure. It has been estimated that 10% of Malibus have had inflight engine failures of some kind. Mike MU-2 "Captain Wubba" wrote in message om... Howdy. I was discussing with a friend of mine my concerns about flying single-engine planes at night or in hard IFR, due to the possibility of engine failure. My buddy is a CFI/CFII/ATP as well as an A&P, about 3500 hours, and been around airplanes for a long time, so I tend to give credence to his experiences. He asked me how often I thought a piston engine had an in-flight engine failure. I guestimated once every 10,000 hours or so. He said that was *dramatically* over-estimating the failure rate. He said that in his experience it is at least 40,000 to 50,000 hours per in-flight engine failure. The place where he works sometimes as a mechanic has plenty of planes come in for overhauls and annuals, and he estimates that for every plane that has had an engine failure before TBO, at least 20-30 make it to TBO without any failure (which would extrapolate to a similar figure). The flight school he teaches at has 7 Cessnas used for primary training and rental that have flown at least 40,000 hours total in the six years he has been there, and they have not experienced a single engine failure. I emailed Lycoming, and (unsurprisingly) they told me they did not keep records about engine failure rates. So I'd like to find out if anyone has done any objective analysis of certificated, piston-engine failure rates in light airplanes. I have seen all kinds of 'guesses', but little in the way of objective facts. After analyzing NTSB accident data and comparing to annual GA flight-hours, I'm starting to think my friend is on the right track, but that is a relatively small sample, and has some methodologial flaws. It's funny. I know 20,000 hour CFIs who have never had an engine failure, and I also know 300 hour PP-ASELs who have had engine failures. Just for giggles, I asked 8 pilot friends/relatives if they had ever had an engine failure. The only 'yes' was a relative who lost an engine after takeoff on his first solo cross-country in 1958. And I know one other pilot who had an engine failure, who I wasn't able to talk to. So what is it? If the engine-failure rate is one failure for every 50,000 flight hours, I'll feel much less reticent about night/IFR single-engine flying than if it is one in 10,000 hours. Anybody have any facts or hard data, or have any idea where I might be able to track some down? Thanks, Cap |
#10
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"Captain Wubba" wrote in message Anybody have any facts or hard data, No hard data, just a fact. Flying since '72, including 18 years of airline flying, and I've never had a catastrophic failure of any kind, ever. Just lucky, I guess. JG |
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