Too many accidents

I have been soaring since the late 70's and can recall many accidents in the past. It seems, however, that recently the accident rate has spiked. While I don't have exact data to confirm this (I'm sure our friends at the SSF have it), it seems that we are experiencing higher than average accidents and fatalities.

I find myself wondering what is causing this. Is it the complexity of gliders emerging in recent years? Is it the age/experience of the pilots? Lack of training? I don't have the answers but I would be interested in other's thoughts on the issue. One accident is too many and loss of any life is tragic.

Greig

On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 3:37:44 PM UTC-4, wrote:
I have been soaring since the late 70's and can recall many accidents in the past. It seems, however, that recently the accident rate has spiked. While I don't have exact data to confirm this (I'm sure our friends at the SSF have it), it seems that we are experiencing higher than average accidents and fatalities.

I find myself wondering what is causing this. Is it the complexity of gliders emerging in recent years? Is it the age/experience of the pilots? Lack of training? I don't have the answers but I would be interested in other's thoughts on the issue. One accident is too many and loss of any life is tragic.

Greig

Unfortunately, accidents have always been part of the sport. We have more slippery gliders, fly at higher wing loadings, and deal with more stresses of everyday life than any of the previous generations.
I narrowly avoided similar faith at the age of 16. It was a lesson for life that taught me a lot about how I should approach flying. That lesson was also reinforced soon after by loss of a dear friend at a very young age. Then there were many more losses and each loss made me more determined to stay focused. Flying has its risks and it demands from us proper risk mitigation techniques and learning from mistakes of others. We as glider pilots are not doing enough of it.

On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 3:35:53 PM UTC-5, Andrzej Kobus wrote:
On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 3:37:44 PM UTC-4, wrote:
I have been soaring since the late 70's and can recall many accidents in the past. It seems, however, that recently the accident rate has spiked. While I don't have exact data to confirm this (I'm sure our friends at the SSF have it), it seems that we are experiencing higher than average accidents and fatalities.

I find myself wondering what is causing this. Is it the complexity of gliders emerging in recent years? Is it the age/experience of the pilots? Lack of training? I don't have the answers but I would be interested in other's thoughts on the issue. One accident is too many and loss of any life is tragic.

Greig

Unfortunately, accidents have always been part of the sport. We have more slippery gliders, fly at higher wing loadings, and deal with more stresses of everyday life than any of the previous generations.
I narrowly avoided similar faith at the age of 16. It was a lesson for life that taught me a lot about how I should approach flying. That lesson was also reinforced soon after by loss of a dear friend at a very young age. Then there were many more losses and each loss made me more determined to stay focused. Flying has its risks and it demands from us proper risk mitigation techniques and learning from mistakes of others. We as glider pilots are not doing enough of it.

Well said.

Many of these pilots have many hundreds if not thousands of hours in gliders.
That is the most sobering aspect; experience seems to make little difference in 2018.

Otherwise, I think we are seeing statistics play out pretty morbidly.

Hopefully, 2019 and beyond will statistically average out a horrible year for fatalities in our beautiful sport.

Some random variation in the accident rate over the years is natural, and expected. It is tragic that we have had more than usual this year, but one bad year doesn't necessarily signal a trend.

This is a terrible topic to be sure so I hesitate to get analytical.

Sadly, this year is not yet out of the ordinary. Over the past ten years the average number of glider accidents per year reported to the NTSB is 25.2. So far this year we are at 17 (including the tragic event over the weekend). Fatal accidents over ten years have averaged 5.2. This year we are at 6. The probable causes this year seem not inconsistent with the overall trend, though obviously we have less information about more recent accidents. The mix of aircraft type/performance has not been significantly different from a casual review.

I think we tend to block bad memories out over time, but we have always paid a terrible price for our beautiful sport.

Respectfully,

Andy Blackburn
9B

On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 2:06:28 PM UTC-7, Pete wrote:
Many of these pilots have many hundreds if not thousands of hours in gliders.
That is the most sobering aspect; experience seems to make little difference in 2018.

Otherwise, I think we are seeing statistics play out pretty morbidly.

Hopefully, 2019 and beyond will statistically average out a horrible year for fatalities in our beautiful sport.



A glider pilot is experienced when s/he no longer makes small mistakes.

On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 3:54:24 PM UTC-6, wrote:

A glider pilot is experienced when s/he no longer makes small mistakes.

I guess I don't know any experienced pilots.

On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 2:44:55 PM UTC-7, Andy Blackburn wrote:
This is a terrible topic to be sure so I hesitate to get analytical.

Sadly, this year is not yet out of the ordinary. Over the past ten years the average number of glider accidents per year reported to the NTSB is 25.2. So far this year we are at 17 (including the tragic event over the weekend). Fatal accidents over ten years have averaged 5.2. This year we are at 6. The probable causes this year seem not inconsistent with the overall trend, though obviously we have less information about more recent accidents. The mix of aircraft type/performance has not been significantly different from a casual review.

I think we tend to block bad memories out over time, but we have always paid a terrible price for our beautiful sport.

Respectfully,

Andy Blackburn
9B

We need to count passengers as well. I counted 10 so far in the US which were mentioned on RAS:
Avenal - 1
Grand Teton - 2
Arizona - 2
Vermont - 3
Truckee - 2

This is not just an anomaly. This is double the average.
Also the seemingly trend of decline in fatality rate over the years is an illusion. The number of participants declining in even faster rate.

Ramy

Ramy

On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 3:30:06 PM UTC-7, Ramy wrote:
On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 2:44:55 PM UTC-7, Andy Blackburn wrote:
This is a terrible topic to be sure so I hesitate to get analytical.

Sadly, this year is not yet out of the ordinary. Over the past ten years the average number of glider accidents per year reported to the NTSB is 25.2. So far this year we are at 17 (including the tragic event over the weekend). Fatal accidents over ten years have averaged 5.2. This year we are at 6. The probable causes this year seem not inconsistent with the overall trend, though obviously we have less information about more recent accidents.. The mix of aircraft type/performance has not been significantly different from a casual review.

I think we tend to block bad memories out over time, but we have always paid a terrible price for our beautiful sport.

Respectfully,

Andy Blackburn
9B

We need to count passengers as well. I counted 10 so far in the US which were mentioned on RAS:
Avenal - 1
Grand Teton - 2
Arizona - 2
Vermont - 3
Truckee - 2

This is not just an anomaly. This is double the average.
Also the seemingly trend of decline in fatality rate over the years is an illusion. The number of participants declining in even faster rate.

Ramy

Ramy

Not trying to derail, but can you elaborate on the passenger thing at Avenal? I'm only aware of the one accident their from last May, which was a pilot in his personal single place. Other than that an owner in a single place (HP-14) in the 90's spun in from a rigging error.