December 6,1941

I have often wondered. Given a 24 hour advanced notice that an attack
was eminent in 72 hours or less, what would have been the outcome at
Pearl Harbor? Say on dec 6, Pearl was given intel that an attack would
come anytime in the next 72 hours.

What could have been done differently to affect the outcome?
Granted at that point in the war, some of the hardware was not up
to snuff with the Japanese. With a 24 hour warning, how many fighter
aircraft could have been prepared, armed, and either flying or on
alert? What (if any) could have been used for night operations?
What would have been the likely outcome of an even plane
dogfight scenario?

Given the 24 hour warning time, where would you position the
carriers that were out at sea and why? Offensive or defensive?

What about the surface ships in the harbor. In or out?
Was there better way to position them against air attack?

What combination of aircraft could have been marshalled for an
offensive strike against the carrier group at the range they
were at? Were there enough trained aviators to even attempt this
at this time? Were the Japanese aviators better trained and equipped
at this point in the war?

Would the crude land based radar have been any major help with the
advanced warning and defensive attack ?

Would the US fleet have attempted to put to sea to go after the Japanese
task force, or stay close in for the defence against the possible
invasion of Hawaii? Was the fleet safer at sea knowing the
japs were coming, or safer in the harbor?


It would make an interesting movie.....


BOB




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"BOB URZ" wrote in message
...
I have often wondered. Given a 24 hour advanced notice that an attack
was eminent in 72 hours or less, what would have been the outcome at
Pearl Harbor? Say on dec 6, Pearl was given intel that an attack would
come anytime in the next 72 hours.

What could have been done differently to affect the outcome?

They could have issued ammunition for the army fixed AA guns
instead of keeping it in depots (the army didnt like its shells
getting dirty - no kidding)

The USAAF could have been alert with some fighters airbornes
and the rest properly dispersed instead of parked together in the
middle of the field lacking only a neon sign saying 'bomb here'

The fleet could have been on a higher state of readiness instead
of enjoying a sunday morning lie in

They could have taken some basic precautions like rigging torpedo
nets.


Granted at that point in the war, some of the hardware was not up
to snuff with the Japanese. With a 24 hour warning, how many fighter
aircraft could have been prepared, armed, and either flying or on
alert?

The army hearings estimated that if they had been alert between 70 and
80 fighters could have been in the air.

What (if any) could have been used for night operations?
What would have been the likely outcome of an even plane
dogfight scenario?

Given the 24 hour warning time, where would you position the
carriers that were out at sea and why? Offensive or defensive?


They were too far way to make an effective counterstrike or defense.

What about the surface ships in the harbor. In or out?
Was there better way to position them against air attack?


The BB's could have been sent back to the West Coast.

What combination of aircraft could have been marshalled for an
offensive strike against the carrier group at the range they
were at? Were there enough trained aviators to even attempt this
at this time? Were the Japanese aviators better trained and equipped
at this point in the war?


There really wasnt an effective strike force available.

Would the crude land based radar have been any major help with the
advanced warning and defensive attack ?


The land based radar detected the incoming attack very succesfully,
trouble is the information center couldnt handle the data and
simply assumed the aircraft were friendly, no IFF was available.

Would the US fleet have attempted to put to sea to go after the Japanese
task force, or stay close in for the defence against the possible
invasion of Hawaii? Was the fleet safer at sea knowing the
japs were coming, or safer in the harbor?


Safer halfway to San Francisco, sortieing against the carriers
was a hopeless task, they were too slow to catch them and
would likley have lost more men as ships were sunk in the
deep ocean and would not have been salvageable.

Keith

I have often wondered. Given a 24 hour advanced notice that an attack
was eminent in 72 hours or less, what would have been the outcome at
Pearl Harbor? Say on dec 6, Pearl was given intel that an attack would
come anytime in the next 72 hours.

It might well have been worse in some ways. I understand that part of the
Navy's planning was to move the fleet out of the harbor to a different
anchorage that was much deeper. So if some of the ships could have been
torpedoed or sunk by bombs there they might well have been unrecoverable.

John Dupre'

BOB URZ writes:

I have often wondered. Given a 24 hour advanced notice that an attack
was eminent in 72 hours or less, what would have been the outcome at
Pearl Harbor? Say on dec 6, Pearl was given intel that an attack would
come anytime in the next 72 hours.

What could have been done differently to affect the outcome?

If the fleet had been dispersed, the attackers might have gone
after the fuel storage area. If I recall, it was mostly above ground.


http://www.cpf.navy.mil/pearlharbor/...ilability.html


During the attack on Pearl Harbor, the fuel tank farm at
the Pearl Harbor Navy Supply Depot was a strategic target
that was extremely vulnerable but was not attached and
remained undamaged through two waves of bombing.

This tank farm held the entire fuel oil supply for the
United States Pacific Fleet. A single bomb could have
destroyed over four and a half million barrels of oil and
would have prolonged the war for years, according to Admiral
Chester Nimitz.
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"Keith Willshaw" escreveu na mensagem
...
Given the 24 hour warning time, where would you position the
carriers that were out at sea and why? Offensive or defensive?
They were too far way to make an effective counterstrike or defense.

Keith,

Sorry if this is a stupid question, but AFAIK, the Enterprise had some of
its Dauntless (VS-6) on patrol while on her way to Pearl when they were
engaged by jap planes returning to the carriers. One of them (pilot was
Ensign McCarthy, IIRC) was shot down. Devastators from VT-6 were launched to
find and attack the jap force, but their search was fruitless. With a 24h
advanced warning, could the Enterprise be put in a "favorable" position to
attack the jap force, if this could be located? Did she have enough
"firepower" to do face the jap fleet alone?

Tks in advance,

Vicente

(Resisting "But Roosevelt *did* know urge")

"Keith Willshaw" wrote:

"BOB URZ" wrote in message
...
I have often wondered. Given a 24 hour advanced notice that an attack
was eminent in 72 hours or less, what would have been the outcome at
Pearl Harbor? Say on dec 6, Pearl was given intel that an attack would
come anytime in the next 72 hours.

What could have been done differently to affect the outcome?

They could have issued ammunition for the army fixed AA guns
instead of keeping it in depots (the army didnt like its shells
getting dirty - no kidding)

The USAAF could have been alert with some fighters airbornes
and the rest properly dispersed instead of parked together in the
middle of the field lacking only a neon sign saying 'bomb here'

The fleet could have been on a higher state of readiness instead
of enjoying a sunday morning lie in

They could have taken some basic precautions like rigging torpedo
nets.


Carrier aircraft could have flown to land-based fields, refueled there,
then attacked the Jap carriers as they approached.

Subs may have also have been able to intercept.

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"BOB URZ" wrote in message
...
I have often wondered. Given a 24 hour advanced notice that an attack
was eminent in 72 hours or less, what would have been the outcome at
Pearl Harbor? Say on dec 6, Pearl was given intel that an attack would
come anytime in the next 72 hours.

Depends on if it was clear the attack was by air instead of clandestine.
The area commanders were preparing for sabotage which had the
effect of creating excellent targets. Convince them the attack was
coming from carrier aircraft and lots changes.

What could have been done differently to affect the outcome?

Disperse the air assets, fly CAP, sortie the fleet and have AAA
emplacements set, armed and manned. PAY ATTENTION to the
radar crew.
There are other things you would do, such as moving the army into
defensive positions, that as history played out wouldn't have meant
much but could have under different circumstances.

Granted at that point in the war, some of the hardware was not up
to snuff with the Japanese. With a 24 hour warning, how many fighter
aircraft could have been prepared, armed, and either flying or on
alert? What (if any) could have been used for night operations?

Catalinas for patrol, nobody was going to attack Pearl at night in '41:
that would have required night carrier ops.

What would have been the likely outcome of an even plane
dogfight scenario?

Given the 24 hour warning time, where would you position the
carriers that were out at sea and why? Offensive or defensive?

With as many other surface combatants as I could round up.
If I then have time to position that group I'ld try for a place off
to the side of the expected approach so as to be able to trail
enemy planes back to their fleet.
As I recall it, one of the carriers was coming back from a delivery
run dropping off aircraft at Wake(?); that ship would need fighter
flown out to it.

What about the surface ships in the harbor. In or out?

Out, moving targets are harder to hit -if they can be found at all-,
have freer use of their AA guns and they can try to intercept the
Japanese fleet.

Was there better way to position them against air attack?

What combination of aircraft could have been marshalled for an
offensive strike against the carrier group at the range they
were at? Were there enough trained aviators to even attempt this
at this time? Were the Japanese aviators better trained and equipped
at this point in the war?

Would the crude land based radar have been any major help with the
advanced warning and defensive attack ?

The radar historically picked up the inbound attack flight and the
information was called in to head quarters, it was dismissed.
Acted on in real history a lot more American fighters could have
been gotten into the air which would have decreased the efficiency of
the attack. An effective defense could have been attempted. Given a
24 or more hours of head start the US fleet would have taken
trivial losses compared to reality; perhaps the USS Arizona could
have sailed to Coregidor before it fell.

Would the US fleet have attempted to put to sea to go after the Japanese
task force, or stay close in for the defense against the possible
invasion of Hawaii? Was the fleet safer at sea knowing the
japs were coming, or safer in the harbor?

They would likely have attempted to engage the op fleet but not chased
them more than a day or two. 24 hours is short notice to provision
the entire Pacific fleet in Pearl Harbor and concern for undetected
invasion fleets would be in everybodys' mind.

"David Lesher" wrote in message
...
BOB URZ writes:

I have often wondered. Given a 24 hour advanced notice that an attack
was eminent in 72 hours or less, what would have been the outcome at
Pearl Harbor? Say on dec 6, Pearl was given intel that an attack would
come anytime in the next 72 hours.

What could have been done differently to affect the outcome?

If the fleet had been dispersed, the attackers might have gone
after the fuel storage area. If I recall, it was mostly above ground.


http://www.cpf.navy.mil/pearlharbor/...ilability.html


During the attack on Pearl Harbor, the fuel tank farm at
the Pearl Harbor Navy Supply Depot was a strategic target
that was extremely vulnerable but was not attached and
remained undamaged through two waves of bombing.

This tank farm held the entire fuel oil supply for the
United States Pacific Fleet. A single bomb could have
destroyed over four and a half million barrels of oil and
would have prolonged the war for years, according to Admiral
Chester Nimitz.

It's only been in recent years (late 1990s?) that the US declassed
that there were underground fuel tanks in the mountains around
Pearl Harbor and they had been there '41. I seem to recall reports
of the fuel stored in them on Dec 7th, '41, but I don't recall what
it was.

"Vicente Vazquez" wrote in message
...

"Keith Willshaw" escreveu na mensagem
...
Given the 24 hour warning time, where would you position the
carriers that were out at sea and why? Offensive or defensive?
They were too far way to make an effective counterstrike or defense.

Keith,

Sorry if this is a stupid question, but AFAIK, the Enterprise had some of
its Dauntless (VS-6) on patrol while on her way to Pearl when they were
engaged by jap planes returning to the carriers. One of them (pilot was
Ensign McCarthy, IIRC) was shot down. Devastators from VT-6 were launched
to
find and attack the jap force, but their search was fruitless. With a 24h
advanced warning, could the Enterprise be put in a "favorable" position to
attack the jap force, if this could be located? Did she have enough
"firepower" to do face the jap fleet alone?


I think the likely outcome would have been the loss of the Enterprise
and her air crews, a far more valuable asset than the old battleships
that were lost.

Keith

Keith Willshaw wrote:

"BOB URZ" wrote in message

I have often wondered. Given a 24 hour advanced notice that an attack
was eminent in 72 hours or less, what would have been the outcome at
Pearl Harbor? Say on dec 6, Pearl was given intel that an attack would
come anytime in the next 72 hours.

What could have been done differently to affect the outcome?

The USAAF could have been alert with some fighters airbornes
and the rest properly dispersed instead of parked together in the
middle of the field lacking only a neon sign saying 'bomb here'

[...]

The army hearings estimated that if they had been alert between 70 and
80 fighters could have been in the air.

[...]

What (if any) could have been used for night operations?
What would have been the likely outcome of an even plane
dogfight scenario?

Given the quality of Japanese aircraft and especially pilots in Dec 1941,
along with the American P-40 and pilots trained to dogfight, the AAF
wouldn't have done much better in actual A-A combat against the Japanese
than happened with no warning.

Perhaps the good part of having no warning was that more pilots lived,
while their aircraft died. Somewhat similar to Navy ships being sunk
in harbor (salvageable; lower loss of crew) versus open water.

It took time for US pilots to learn dogfighting Japanese fighters
wasn't good policy. That would have been unknown on Dec 7.

About the best the AAF could have salvaged with advanced notice and
preparation, was the saving of more aircraft, but I think such notice
would have killed more pilots; a net loss over the total surprise
that actually occurred.


SMH