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VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather
I was listening to LiveATC.net's feed of Syracuse, NY, yesterday (Sunday)
during the approach of a large thunderstorm line that was moving towards the airport from the south. At one point a VFR a Cessna 172, approaching the airport from the west, checked in stating his intention to land at SYR. As the C172 progressed, the controller called the pilot to report that the aircraft was eight miles from and heading directly towards a line of extreme weather. The pilot responded in a somewhat unappreciative tone that he was "painting" it. The controller responded with a rather surprised, "Roger." Moments later the controller again called to warn the pilot of extreme weather at his twelve o'clock. The pilot then replied in what sounded like an annoyed tone that he was "picking our way through the weather using our XM." Again, the controller replied with a surprised "Roger." With a quiet moment on the frequency, the controller called the pilot a third time to ask him to explain what XM meant. The pilot described the concept of XM NEXRAD on his Garmin 396, but then added that the refresh rate allowed him to see heavy weather on the 398 from 2 to 8 minutes old. When I heard that the refresh rate was up to 8 minutes old, I cringed to think that this pilot (this one didn't sound like an experienced freight dog to me, but maybe I was wrong) was picking his way through a field of thunderstorms on a day where returns went from light to extreme in less than ten minutes. Granted that the pilot was VFR so presumably he was seeing and avoiding using the outside picture primarily. But this day it was a typical northeast US hazy and humid day with visibility around the 6 to 8 mile range, so having the Garmin 396 for strategic avoidance was a good thing. It still made me sweat from the comfort of my office chair to imagine that this pilot was flying through the weather line using up to 8 minute old data (not even considering the NEXRAD delay before the picture is uplinked to the XM satellites) and declining the more real-time weather guidance offered by ATC (SYR approach has excellent weather radar). Eventually a thunderstorm cell erupted right over the airport, resulting in numerous wind shear alerts and at least one microburst alert, so the pilot called approach to state his intention of diverting southeast towards an airport 50 nm south of SYR to wait out the weather. -- Peter |
#2
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VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather
"Peter R." wrote in message
... I was listening to LiveATC.net's feed of Syracuse, NY, yesterday (Sunday) during the approach of a large thunderstorm line that was moving towards the airport from the south. At one point a VFR a Cessna 172, approaching the airport from the west, checked in stating his intention to land at SYR. As the C172 progressed, the controller called the pilot to report that the aircraft was eight miles from and heading directly towards a line of extreme weather. The pilot responded in a somewhat unappreciative tone that he was "painting" it. [snip] The more I fly, the more I believe that the body of pilots that regularly do things that most will consider "stupid pilot tricks" is larger than what many people think. The odds are that this guy will get away with this multiple times before he gets bit. Of course there's also a small chance that he may never get bit hard enough to scare or kill himself. I bet if there was a reliable way to find the number of pilots who have or do fly in the clouds while "VFR," it would be eye-opening. Marco |
#3
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VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather
The more I fly, the more I believe that the body of pilots that regularly do
things that most will consider "stupid pilot tricks" is larger than what many people think. The odds are that this guy will get away with this multiple times before he gets bit. Of course there's also a small chance that he may never get bit hard enough to scare or kill himself. While what you say is true, it really depends on the type of thunderstorms Peter is describing. (And I don't mean to imply that his observations were inaccurate in any way.) In the Midwest, in summer, it's common for afternoon thunderstorms to develop. Sometimes these are in a line (associated with a front), but many times they are similar to Florida "pop-up" thunderstorms, in that they build in place. We call them "popcorn storms". Penetrating a line of storms associated with a front is dicey at best, even with a 396/496. Flying *around* "popcorn" thunderstorms, however, can be perfectly safe, given decent visibility. It's even doable without XM in the plane, but the satellite data in the cockpit makes it MUCH less stressful, mostly because you can tell where the storms are building, and where they are subsiding. This gives you an important strategic leg up on the situation that makes it truly easy to stay out of trouble. When you can see a towering cumulus cloud building into a 35,000 foot monster over *there* -- but it's perfectly clear over *here* -- it's pretty easy to circumnavigate the problem, and steer a wide berth away from any potential wind shear, precipitation, or bad visibility. This is especially true in the "big sky" Midwest, where there is little terrain to block your view to the horizon. Add the XM satellite data to that visual information, and you've got a perfectly doable situation -- given the "right" kind of storms. (It helps to be a student of weather, in order to discern the difference -- but the differences are pretty obvious, once you know what to look for...) I bet if there was a reliable way to find the number of pilots who have or do fly in the clouds while "VFR," it would be eye-opening. I don't know any VFR pilots who would voluntarily fly into clouds. I'm sure they exist, but I think modern flight instructors have very thoroughly indoctrinated their students with the dangers of instrument flight without proper instruction. -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993 www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination" |
#4
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VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather
On Jun 4, 10:10 am, Jay Honeck wrote:
The more I fly, the more I believe that the body of pilots that regularly do things that most will consider "stupid pilot tricks" is larger than what many people think. The odds are that this guy will get away with this multiple times before he gets bit. Of course there's also a small chance that he may never get bit hard enough to scare or kill himself. While what you say is true, it really depends on the type of thunderstorms Peter is describing. (And I don't mean to imply that his observations were inaccurate in any way.) In the SW summer TS's are frequent but usually easily circumnavigatable VFR. I would never attempt to try IFR in that type of weather, if you get in IMC you're probably going into a TS. VFR is the way to go. |
#5
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VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather
Robert M. Gary wrote:
In the SW summer TS's are frequent but usually easily circumnavigatable VFR. I would never attempt to try IFR in that type of weather, if you get in IMC you're probably going into a TS. VFR is the way to go. Nope, we've got the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry all over the NE. It's not isolated, you could really get yourself "painted" into a corner. |
#6
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VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather
On 6/4/2007 1:10:07 PM, Jay Honeck wrote:
While what you say is true, it really depends on the type of thunderstorms Peter is describing. (And I don't mean to imply that his observations were inaccurate in any way.) Jay, here is a radar image that was taken about 10 minutes before the pilot checked on. I have indicated cell movement using red arrows and the pilot's approximate course using the yellow arrow: http://i192.photobucket.com/albums/z...un-03-2007.jpg The cells were closer to Syracuse airport when the exchange took place. As you can see, this is not a field of pop-corn cells. -- Peter |
#7
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VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather
In article . com,
Jay Honeck wrote: Penetrating a line of storms associated with a front is dicey at best, even with a 396/496. Flying *around* "popcorn" thunderstorms, however, can be perfectly safe, given decent visibility. It's even doable without XM in the plane, but the satellite data in the cockpit makes it MUCH less stressful, mostly because you can tell where the storms are building, and where they are subsiding. This gives you an important strategic leg up on the situation that makes it truly easy to stay out of trouble. When I was working this past Sunday morning, I watched the sky go from clear to 8/10ths broken towering cumulus in 15 minutes. You will not out climb it, you will not out run it. You will get caught in the middle of it. |
#8
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VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather
"Jay Honeck" wrote ... We call them "popcorn storms". That was a good one ;-) Haven't heard that one before. (oops, sign of my sub-1000 hrs experience ;-) But then most of my flying is local anyway, so it's easy to stay on ground when the popcorns appear. I much prefer the edible variant |
#9
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VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather
On 2007-06-04, Jay Honeck wrote:
While what you say is true, it really depends on the type of thunderstorms Peter is describing. (And I don't mean to imply that his observations were inaccurate in any way.) Yes, there are thunderstorms, then there are THUNDERSTORMS, even amongst the isolated cell variety. When I lived in Houston, if we didn't fly when there were thunderstorms, we probably wouldn't fly all summer. But these were airmass storms, usually very small (in both the size over the ground they covered, and vertical development). Much like the popcorn storms Jay was talking about. However, I was flying in Nevada a couple of years ago when there were isolated thunderstorms. It was severe clear VFR (visibility must have exceeded 50 miles) and very smooth flying high up (and to get in the nice cool air, it was worth spending the 40 or so minutes it took the TriPacer to climb up high!) Every so often I saw a distant thunderstorm. They were fairly small... but had a distinctly more 'evil' look than the ones in Houston. I was passing one probably at a range of around 20 miles, judging by landmarks. The ride very quickly went from smooth to almost smashing my head on the roof rough. It was like a giant with a rolled up newspaper, battering the TriPacer about. Although I didn't really want to arrive in darkness at my refuelling stop (night flying in unfamiliar mountainous terrain is NOT my idea of fun) I decided that flying perpendicular to my intended course to fly away from the storm as fast as possible was the best course of action. I flew for a good ten miles before the ride became even remotely comfortable. I hate to think what the ride would be like only 10 miles from that storm! -- Yes, the Reply-To email address is valid. Oolite-Linux: an Elite tribute: http://oolite-linux.berlios.de |
#10
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VFR "picking his way thru" heavy cells with XM Radio weather
Dylan Smith writes:
Yes, there are thunderstorms, then there are THUNDERSTORMS, even amongst the isolated cell variety. A storm that produces thunder necessarily contains lightning, and a storm that is producing lightning necessarily contains large masses of swiftly-moving air that generate the charge differentials necessary for lightning. Large masses of swiftly-moving air are dangerous, so it follows that all thunderstorms must be avoided. |
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