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Imagine for a moment that you were a really good electro chemist, that
you had enough money to allow you to do applied research on battery technology, you had an invention that improved energy density for batteries, and that you were also somewhat knowledgeable as an entrepreneur. So you have this battery technology and it's well protected by patents and/or trade secrets. Now what? Where would you apply it? Battery operated cars and airplanes require lots of other 'invention' before the rubber meets the road or runway. There is an a market though, where if we could achieve form, fit, and function -- the battery can fit into existing spaces and it provides the correct power profile -- where billions might be made. Portable devices like cell phones, smart phones, laptops, all have a 'I'll buy it right now" market if there was a simple doubling of endurance. There is no FAA certification needed, no DOT compliances either. A web site will do. Where do I send a check to get 24 hours without a recharge on my laptop? So rather than look for first applications where lots of ancillary investment is needed, look at markets that can be immediately satisfied. If the product matures there other apps will follow. There are college entrepreneurial technology incubators where some grad student with a credible business plan for high energy density batteries could get funding the day after tomorrow. Hell, I'd help arrange for VC capitalization for a small equity position. I've been known to be wrong, but I think this technology is being peddled to the same people who are apt to respond to emails that read "Dear Sir, I am the wife of an ambassador who has been slain, and need to transfer several million dollars. . ." My sense is if the prototype technology is being 'shopped' on the net it's either airborne pie or feed corn that has already been processed by the digestive engine housed inside bulls. That's my 2 cents worth. |
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a wrote:
Imagine for a moment that you were a really good electro chemist, that you had enough money to allow you to do applied research on battery technology, you had an invention that improved energy density for batteries, and that you were also somewhat knowledgeable as an entrepreneur. So you have this battery technology and it's well protected by patents and/or trade secrets. Now what? Where would you apply it? Battery operated cars and airplanes require lots of other 'invention' before the rubber meets the road or runway. There is an a market though, where if we could achieve form, fit, and function -- the battery can fit into existing spaces and it provides the correct power profile -- where billions might be made. Portable devices like cell phones, smart phones, laptops, all have a 'I'll buy it right now" market if there was a simple doubling of endurance. There is no FAA certification needed, no DOT compliances either. A web site will do. Where do I send a check to get 24 hours without a recharge on my laptop? So rather than look for first applications where lots of ancillary investment is needed, look at markets that can be immediately satisfied. If the product matures there other apps will follow. There are college entrepreneurial technology incubators where some grad student with a credible business plan for high energy density batteries could get funding the day after tomorrow. Hell, I'd help arrange for VC capitalization for a small equity position. I've been known to be wrong, but I think this technology is being peddled to the same people who are apt to respond to emails that read "Dear Sir, I am the wife of an ambassador who has been slain, and need to transfer several million dollars. . ." My sense is if the prototype technology is being 'shopped' on the net it's either airborne pie or feed corn that has already been processed by the digestive engine housed inside bulls. That's my 2 cents worth. Electric cars are the "in" thing right now, so that's where all the breathless press rleases that promise pie in the sky are. There would be no electric cars at all if it weren't for government pressure and subsidies. All the real advances in battery technology is going to the places you think they would go; cell phones, laptops, etc. -- Jim Pennino Remove .spam.sux to reply. |
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On Sep 19, 10:53*am, wrote:
a wrote: Imagine for a moment that you were a really good electro chemist, that you had enough money to allow you to do applied research on battery technology, you had an invention that improved energy density for batteries, and that you were also somewhat knowledgeable as an entrepreneur. So you have this battery technology and it's well protected by patents and/or trade secrets. Now what? Where would you apply it? Battery operated cars and airplanes require lots of other 'invention' before the rubber meets the road or runway. There is an a market though, where if we could achieve form, fit, and function -- the battery can fit into existing spaces and it provides the correct power profile *-- where billions might be made. Portable devices like cell phones, smart phones, laptops, all have a 'I'll buy it right now" market if there was a simple doubling of endurance. There is no FAA certification needed, no DOT compliances either. *A web site will do. Where do I send a check to get 24 hours without a recharge on my laptop? So rather than look for first applications where lots of ancillary investment is needed, look at markets that can be immediately satisfied. If the product matures there other apps will follow. There are college entrepreneurial technology incubators where some grad student with a credible business plan for high energy density batteries could get funding the day after tomorrow. Hell, I'd help arrange for VC capitalization for a small equity position. I've been known to be wrong, but I think this technology is being peddled to the same people who are apt to respond to emails that read "Dear Sir, I am the wife of an ambassador who has been slain, and need to transfer several million dollars. . ." My sense is if the prototype technology is being 'shopped' on the net it's either airborne pie or feed corn that has already been processed by the digestive engine housed inside bulls. That's my 2 cents worth. Electric cars are the "in" thing right now, so that's where all the breathless press rleases that promise pie in the sky are. There would be no electric cars at all if it weren't for government pressure and subsidies. All the real advances in battery technology is going to the places you think they would go; cell phones, laptops, etc. -- Jim Pennino Remove .spam.sux to reply. Don't overlook the relative price insensitivity in the mobile electronics market. Many would pay more than twice as much for a power source for a laptop that give it twice the endurance. And weight would not be a serious issue, for that matter. |
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On Sep 19, 10:36*am, a wrote:
So you have this battery technology and it's well protected by patents and/or trade secrets. I heard patents weren't safe if you have something the corporate world wants. I know there is patent infringement insurance, but they could drag it out for decades. Also, China is stealing everything. --- Mark |
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On Sep 19, 12:10*pm, Mark wrote:
On Sep 19, 10:36*am, a wrote: *So you have this battery technology and it's well protected by patents and/or trade secrets. I heard patents weren't safe if you have something the corporate world wants. I know there is patent infringement insurance, but they could drag it out for decades. Also, China is stealing everything. --- Mark The patents I hold, which are not for anything as significant as this potential application, protected the invention as intended. More to the point, if the technology is not able to be protected, one would be foolish to have as its initial application something that would take years to earn a reasonable return. We follow a fairly simple minded rule, taking into account market uncertainties which means heavily discounting future returns, we apply our technologies to the best projected present value, and that usually means what is closest to earning money. In the battery technology case, if it was in my shop, that means form-fit-function replacements for an existing market. If I was in the battery business and my product manager suggested our initial application be as the primary power source for airplanes, he would have to have a compelling fact based argument, or I'd question his (or her, but if it was promoting general aviation applications it would probably be a guy) judgment. The point is, look to immediate applications if you want to see if a technology has the legs to run in this market. I would love to have as competitors executives who use competing technologies to chase blue sky applications (pun intended although I like actual IMC better) , unfortunately they are as least as insightful as I am, and don't do things like that. |
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a wrote:
Where do I send a check to get 24 hours without a recharge on my laptop? There was (probably still is) work being done on tiny turbines constructed using MEMS technologies that would be small enough to replace batteries in laptops and other electronic devices and provide power 10 times longer than batteries. The irony is that their advantage is due to the much larger energy density of liquid fuels. Some links: http://robots.net/article/2650.html http://www.gizmag.com/go/6245/ http://www.ece.umd.edu/MEMS/projects..._June_2008.pdf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microel...anical_systems |
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