California Sierras /Western Mojave: Good to Great Soaring weatherWed-Fri 08/19 to 08/21

Hi Everyone... WX here

I'm comming out tyo fly Wednesday (Cal City) ... because I have to
work Thur/Fri

High pressure aloft will build into NV/OR on Wednesday. Wind
circulations 10,000-18,000 northerly in NV turn easterly over the
Central and Norther Sierras... and light southeasterly Southern CA.
This pattern sweeps dry fairly unstable air into the Sierras... and
allows thermals to start early in the Western Mojave Deserts
especially over the Tehachapi mtns and north.

Wednesday it will still be dry with cu bases 18,500 from Olancha Pk
north. Mostly blue over the Deserts and to east. Dr Jack shows
thermals to 16,000 starting fairly early over the Western Mojave
nearby mtns (Tehachapis and Southern Sierra) ... 15,000 over the flat
deserts in the afternoon. Late if any low level "washout" SW low level
winds.... So, you can get back home fairly late.

Thursday and Friday look a bit better as the 500mb slides to Central
NV and UT leaving Southern CA and the Owens valley in a light SE flow.
We'll probably see more cu and a near "classic" sky. Cut off low just
off Southern CA coast will feed the SE flow and add to instability.
Right now, I don't think that thunderstorm overdevelopment will be a
problem.

Let's go for it the end of this week... !

Thursday looks BEST.

Weekend weather will make a down turn as more stable SW flow moves in.


Walt Rogers, WX

Did Dr Jack take into account all the smoke in the air from SoCal wild fires
blocking and diffusing solar heating?
It was ugly south of LAS all weekend. Smoke/Haze layer tops out at about 17K
in the Great Basin area of NV.

BT

"WaltWX" wrote in message
...
Hi Everyone... WX here

I'm comming out tyo fly Wednesday (Cal City) ... because I have to
work Thur/Fri

High pressure aloft will build into NV/OR on Wednesday. Wind
circulations 10,000-18,000 northerly in NV turn easterly over the
Central and Norther Sierras... and light southeasterly Southern CA.
This pattern sweeps dry fairly unstable air into the Sierras... and
allows thermals to start early in the Western Mojave Deserts
especially over the Tehachapi mtns and north.

Wednesday it will still be dry with cu bases 18,500 from Olancha Pk
north. Mostly blue over the Deserts and to east. Dr Jack shows
thermals to 16,000 starting fairly early over the Western Mojave
nearby mtns (Tehachapis and Southern Sierra) ... 15,000 over the flat
deserts in the afternoon. Late if any low level "washout" SW low level
winds.... So, you can get back home fairly late.

Thursday and Friday look a bit better as the 500mb slides to Central
NV and UT leaving Southern CA and the Owens valley in a light SE flow.
We'll probably see more cu and a near "classic" sky. Cut off low just
off Southern CA coast will feed the SE flow and add to instability.
Right now, I don't think that thunderstorm overdevelopment will be a
problem.

Let's go for it the end of this week... !

Thursday looks BEST.

Weekend weather will make a down turn as more stable SW flow moves in.


Walt Rogers, WX

The smoke is a wild card, but there's still action out there! Days are
starting a bit slower but quite soarable.
Jim

Now it looks like Friday is the outstanding day. Take a look at Dr.
Jack's NAM 21Z forecast for Fri 08/21 - TI=0 max thermal height
(16,000 to 21,000 in Central NV) and Cu Cloud Base for CuPot0.
Tremendous cu cloud coverage over entire NV, Sierras and Western
Mojave. Winds will be a big stronger.. southerly 10-15 in the boundary
layer. Any takers for a flight from Crystal/Tehachapi to Idaho,
Wyoming or Western Montana?

Wednesday will still be a bit early and dry. Cu over the Sierras...
high and from Sacatar Olancha Pk north. Still good early thermals over
the Tehachapis but in the Blue. I'm still restricted to flying out of
Cal City due to my work schedule on Wednesday.

Thursday will be better with more cu... and still fairly light winds.

Saturday (for those who have to work up to Fri) should also be quite
good... just windier and a little less stable over the SW U.S....
compared to the outstanding day on Friday.

See ya on 123.3

Walt Rogers, WX

we've got moisture heading our way.. one more push from monsoon season to
give us some instability.
Local TV forecasters are giving us a 20% change of thunderstorms on Saturday
BT

"WaltWX" wrote in message
...

Now it looks like Friday is the outstanding day. Take a look at Dr.
Jack's NAM 21Z forecast for Fri 08/21 - TI=0 max thermal height
(16,000 to 21,000 in Central NV) and Cu Cloud Base for CuPot0.
Tremendous cu cloud coverage over entire NV, Sierras and Western
Mojave. Winds will be a big stronger.. southerly 10-15 in the boundary
layer. Any takers for a flight from Crystal/Tehachapi to Idaho,
Wyoming or Western Montana?

Wednesday will still be a bit early and dry. Cu over the Sierras...
high and from Sacatar Olancha Pk north. Still good early thermals over
the Tehachapis but in the Blue. I'm still restricted to flying out of
Cal City due to my work schedule on Wednesday.

Thursday will be better with more cu... and still fairly light winds.

Saturday (for those who have to work up to Fri) should also be quite
good... just windier and a little less stable over the SW U.S....
compared to the outstanding day on Friday.

See ya on 123.3

Walt Rogers, WX