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On Sat, 20 Mar 2004 01:23:21 -0500, "zxcv" wrote:
Since the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs were about 10 kilotons and a B-17 had a normal bomb load of about 3 tons and I have heard of a formation of 1300 B-17's on a bomb run that would equal around 4 kilotons (3 x 1300 = 3900) would the devastation be the same as a small A-bomb? or is there some lessening effect because of the spread of much smaller bombs? The effects of 1300 B-17s over a relatively wide area would spread the destruction further. What an atomic bomb does that is so effective is due to having all xxx kilotons go off at the same time and the same place creating an enormous shockwave and wall of intense heat. To put this in perspective, think of the bombs as hailstones. If I have a hailstorm for 30 minutes with pea sized hail over, say a 2 acre area and that hail had the equivalent water to 1/8 inch of rain, it would cause a great deal of damage. But imagine the damage if there were just one hailstone that weight 7000 lbs dropping from the sky. Not nearly as much damage in most of the area, but where it hit, wow! This, of course, is not an entirely fair analogy, since our bombing in Japanese cities was designed to start firestorms, which did much more damage and killed many more people than the bombs that started them. ---------------------- Mike Willey |
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Mike Willey wrote:
To put this in perspective, think of the bombs as hailstones. If I have a hailstorm for 30 minutes with pea sized hail over, say a 2 acre area and that hail had the equivalent water to 1/8 inch of rain, it would cause a great deal of damage. But imagine the damage if there were just one hailstone that weight 7000 lbs dropping from the sky. Not nearly as much damage in most of the area, but where it hit, wow! That's not a good reason either because why does it matter how much damage is caused PAST the point where everything is destroyed?...everything past that point is useless overkill... -- -Gord. |
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hiroshima facts wrote in message . ..
"Geoffrey Sinclair" wrote in message ... How about we drop the "area affected" for the conventional bombs to something like their known lethal blast area? In which case 90% casualties can be expected, just be within so many feet of the bomb going off. If we ignore anything outside this blast area, since after all there will be only building damage, not destruction, we can make conventional explosives quite lethal. Most of the area is actually "missed" if you use the bomb blast radius. That just changes the way the difference is stated. Nukes don't "miss" any of the area affected, and so kill people that are in areas otherwise missed. I see the need to trim the post to take me out of context. The claim was, "However, I have not seen any arguments that have credited the A-bombs with fewer than 30% fatalities in the area affected." With the "area affected" being defined in a way to increase the lethality of nuclear weapons. I simply altered the "area affected" rule to be the same for both nuclear and conventional bombs, that is within the lethal blast area of the individual bomb, not the area of the city deemed to be the "area affected". And "area affected" now seems to be defined as where people were killed, not where buildings were largely destroyed, at least for the nuclear weapons. By the way there were survivors near ground zero of the nuclear attacks, around 7% of people caught within 1,000 feet, the claimed 2 km "area affected" rule means a circle of around 6,600 feet, the people caught between 6,000 and 7,000 feet had an 87.5% survival rate. Yet the claim is "Nukes don't "miss" any of the area affected, and so kill people that are in areas otherwise missed." Try comparing like with like, the instantaneous nature of a large explosion should mean an elevated lethality versus the same amount of explosives dropped over say an hour. There is no need to set up these absurd changes of definition of "area affected" between nuclear and conventional attacks. By using more explosive per person killed, you also kill a greater portion of the people in the area you are bombing. There is the overkill factor, since the blast dissipates as the square of distance, the buildings near the centre are hit "too much". Airbursts help with that quite a bit. Ever seen the results of a 4,000 pound bomb that detonated before hitting the ground, in fact any bomb that manages to detonate before impact, so it wastes minimal energy throwing dirt around? It does not change the point that the effect of a big bomb is "too much" damage at the point of impact. The blast pressure directly underneath an explosion at a burst height optimized to maximize 30 PSI, is probably not as strong as the blast pressure near an exploding conventional bomb. I see, Hiroshima and Nagasaki were at these optimal heights and you have a belief this is smaller than the blast pressure of a conventional bomb, is that a 100 pound or 22,000 pound conventional bomb, armour piercing or high explosive? Geoffrey Sinclair Remove the nb for email. |
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hiroshima facts wrote in message .. .
"Geoffrey Sinclair" wrote in message ... This will probably appear in the wrong place thanks to a buggy news server. hiroshima facts wrote in message "Geoffrey Sinclair" wrote in message . .. hiroshima facts wrote in message I tried to track down the 50% claim, and it apparently is based on "Medical Effects of the Atomic Bomb in Japan" published by Oughterson in 1956. I don't have that on hand, but I understand that on page 84, they say that 48% of people within 2 km of ground zero were killed. And "within 2 km of ground zero" was counted as the "affected area" for the estimate I was quoting. In which case the affected area being defined as significantly less than the area of blast and fire damage. There were deaths and damage beyond the 2 km/6,600 feet radius. I'm guessing the estimate tried to pick the area where most of the buildings were leveled, and came up with 2 KM. Since a modern nuclear attack that wanted to level a city would use either large enough warheads (or a large enough numbers of warheads) to level everything, this seems fair to me, although perhaps I should use a more precise term than "area affected". Let us understand this, fair for nuclear weapons is looking at the most damaged areas when computing lethality. Fair for conventional weapons is looking at a much bigger area, where damage is not as severe in places when computing lethality. I think the comparison was using the area where most buildings were razed to the ground in each case. I suggest you go look up the various damage levels involved in the different attacks instead of telling us you are "facts" when you are supplying "thoughts". Someone decided to use 2km as the radius to measure the lethality for the nuclear strikes but a much larger area for the conventional strikes, skewing the results. There are zones of far more intense damage with nukes, such as the zone exposed to at least a 20 PSI overpressure. Ever seen the pictures of ground zero for a 4,000 pound HE bomb, the RAF heavy bomber standard weapon in 1944/45? Fair also seems to be assuming multiple larger atomic attacks, Since a modern nuclear attack would use enough nukes to achieve whatever level of damage was desired, I don't see why it isn't fair to consider that. Let us understand this, it is "fair" to compare lethality of conventional and nuclear attacks from WWII by assuming the nuclear attacks are multiple, modern attacks. It looks like the biggest conventional raid in WWII was around 1/3 the size of the smallest nuclear weapon used in terms of explosive power. So now we compare delivering what, 10 to 100 times more explosive power and announce hey the bigger strike is more lethal. Congratulations. Now stop comparing the lethality of conventional and nuclear attacks from WWII which were nothing like the new "fair" standard. How about we change the HE bombs into biowar weapons, then call that "fair". I also think it would also be fair to count any intensity/numbers of conventional bombs that are within the limits of practicality for delivering the attack. The limit on conventional delivery of explosives is aircraft over target, the Lancaster delivered around 10,000 pounds of bombs, put a modern bomber on the job and the number goes up by a factor of 4 or so. Or simply switch to a combination of conventional bombing and missile strikes to increase the explosive delivery rate. Just as the WWII limitations on nuclear strikes have gone away, keep the bomb small enough for the aircraft to survive, the limitations on delivering conventional bombs have been significantly reduced. But I think with conventional bombs there will always be a large number who will be able to successfully flee the firestorm before it takes hold, no matter how intense the bombing. Hamburg was so lethal because of the firestorm killing people in otherwise safe shelters. Normally the best thing to do in an air raid is get into a shelter. Large numbers of people running away on the surface are going to be killed by blast, stampedes, vehicle collisions and so on. presumably also against unwarned populations. I think it is reasonable to account for that. I just don't think it accounts for *all* the difference. Also, given that a nuclear strike can hit with very little warning, there might not be much time for a population to prepare. Now what are we comparing? WWII conventional air raids to ICBMs? The IJN strike on Pearl Harbor used around 0.1 to 0.15 kt of bombs, killed 2,400 people. The bomb dropped on Hiroshima was around 100 times more powerful, it should have killed 240,000 people at this level of lethality. Take away the people killed on the Arizona and you still end up with the Hiroshima bomb needing to kill around 120,000 for equivalent lethality. Try to understand the results of air raids in WWII varied dramatically, using 2 attacks to generalise the effects is an exercise in selective quotation, not facts. The two things that strike me as being unique about nukes is that they can take out an large area rapidly, giving no time to flee once the attack starts, and the prompt radiation kills people in the areas of heavier damage who might otherwise survive the blast. Again this assumes people are unprotected and ignores the fact fleeing during an attack is likely to raise the number of dead. The protection from blast gives good protection from radiation. A machine gun can kill thousands of people per hour if they have no protection. It is also different to the measure used for Tokyo, since it does not use dead plus homeless, substituting a 2 km circle instead. It makes the atomic attacks look more lethal by changing the choice of measurement. The comparison between the two as reported is therefore invalid. The Tokyo raid destroyed 16 square miles, which is the area of a circle of around 2.25 miles or 3.6 km in radius, what was the death toll like for the 2 km circle? As far as I know, there was no concentration of deaths in the Tokyo raid that would change the ratio if we focused on a smaller area. Actually there were concentrations of deaths, the canals and rivers became choked with bodies as people tried to escape the heat, the incoming tide caused drownings. But that is due to the geography of the target, not the nature of the bomb. And the people only ended up in that concentration because they ran there once the bombing started. They ended up in the canals because the fires cut off retreat. The districts that were cut off by fire had the higher death rates. It all came down to whether the fires cut off people's retreat, if they did not more people survived. There was not an even x deaths per square mile in the "affected area", as a simple exercise in logic the people at the fringes had a better chance of escaping. I think it would be fair to trim off the fringe areas and count the casualty rate in the core area. Now we have "core area" to go with "area affected". Understand there are plenty of raids in WWII that killed more people than the atomic strikes per ton of explosive dropped. Even in terms of absolute numbers killed Hiroshima comes in at 1 or 2 with Tokyo, Nagasaki at 4 behind Hamburg at 3, Dresden at 5. Are there *any* instances of conventional weapons ever killing more than 8% (either of the "area affected" or the "area leveled")? Yes night of 23/24 February 1945 RAF Bomber Command versus Pforzheim. The city, pre war population of 80,000, had been the target of Mosquito harassment raids by night plus some day strikes in the order of 100 to 300 tons of bombs before the big raid. On 23/34 February 1945 some 1,740 tons of bombs caused a firestorm, around 17,000 to 18,000 people killed on this night. This raid was responsible for most of the damage to the city during hostilities. Some 83% of the built up area destroyed for the war. In terms of deaths per bomb it works out to a maximum of 1 death per 190 pounds of bombs, around 2/3 the lethality of the Hamburg firestorm. Assuming no growth in population the Pforzheim raid's lethality works out at 21 to 23% of the total population, but around 20% of the city survived, so 5/4 times 21 to 22 is 26 to 28%. Thanks. I didn't know their proportion got so high. I presume though this has no effect on the claims about the relative lethalities of nuclear and conventional attacks. Simply given the reality there are only two atomic strikes to go on and their lethality per "ton" of bomb varied so much and they were against unwarned populations, and the variability seen in WWII conventional bombing means claims about how much more lethal atomic weapons can be do not have solid evidence to back them. Hopefully it stays this way. As I said before I would expect a higher lethality for nuclear weapons thanks to the instantaneous nature of much of the damage and the much higher "explosive" yield, how much higher is another question. I don't see what lethality per ton has to do with it. It has everything to do with it if you want to compare conventional and nuclear attack lethalities, otherwise why not simply compare the lethality of say 2 Zeppelins in WWI and 100 Lancasters in WWII. No guess as to which one kills more people. No matter how much conventional explosive is dropped on a city, a lot of people are still going to be able to flee the raid once it starts. This is something that nukes can overcome. Sigh, to minimise casualties move people before or after the raid, not during it, keep shelters away from flammable areas, keep the people in the shelters during the raid. Movement during a raid is obscured by smoke and dust and exposes people to shrapnel, blast, stampedes and rapidly changing conditions, the "bridge" to safety being hit for example, the confusion as landmarks are destroyed or obscured. In WWII the lethality of conventional attacks varied widely, starting large fires was the usual way of killing large numbers of people, incendiary bombs were the best way to start fires. The WWII nuclear attacks were at least 3 times more powerful in explosive terms than the biggest conventional raid, but the biggest conventional raid was not the most lethal, in either absolute terms or deaths per ton of bombs used. So far instead of supplying facts you are supplying opinions and showing a great lack of knowledge about the results of conventional air raids. Then you bias the definitions to make the nuclear attacks look more dangerous. Geoffrey Sinclair Remove the nb for email. |
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"zxcv" wrote in message ...
Since the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs were about 10 kilotons and a B-17 had a normal bomb load of about 3 tons and I have heard of a formation of 1300 B-17's on a bomb run that would equal around 4 kilotons (3 x 1300 = 3900) would the devastation be the same as a small A-bomb? or is there some lessening effect because of the spread of much smaller bombs? The residual radiation is a great deal less. So is the psychological effect. Most Americans would be better of if the Germans had of developed nuclear exposives first and demonstrated them on either empty US landscape). It would have saced 500,000 lives in Vietnam and quite a few mutilations of Americans in Iraq (I note the oxymoron predictions of a dessert quaqmire are looking realistic) while the japanese would have kept the Red Chinese in check in Korea in the 1050s. |
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"Geoffrey Sinclair" wrote in message ...
I suggest you go look up the various damage levels involved in the different attacks instead of telling us you are "facts" when you are supplying "thoughts". Someone decided to use 2km as the radius to measure the lethality for the nuclear strikes but a much larger area for the conventional strikes, skewing the results. OK, here is my version, based on damage levels: Using nukes, it is possible to subject a city to multiple groundbursts resulting in at least 100 PSI overpressure throughout a large area. Bomb shelters that are conspicuous enough to be detected by reconnaissance flights can be targeted for a direct hit. I expect that this will result in 99.9999% casualties amongst any part of the populace within the 100 PSI zone that is not inside an inconspicuous 100 PSI blast shelter. Had WWII continued, our weapons output in early 1946 should have been able to produce enough A-bombs every three months to achieve that level of destruction over an area of 3.5 square miles. I expect that no conventional weapons attack, from any era you choose, could achieve that level of casualties. Fair also seems to be assuming multiple larger atomic attacks, Since a modern nuclear attack would use enough nukes to achieve whatever level of damage was desired, I don't see why it isn't fair to consider that. Let us understand this, it is "fair" to compare lethality of conventional and nuclear attacks from WWII by assuming the nuclear attacks are multiple, modern attacks. It looks like the biggest conventional raid in WWII was around 1/3 the size of the smallest nuclear weapon used in terms of explosive power. So now we compare delivering what, 10 to 100 times more explosive power and announce hey the bigger strike is more lethal. Congratulations. Since nuclear weapons have to potential to provide much more explosive power than can be achieved by conventional weapons, and thus kill far more people than can be achieved by conventional weapons, I think it is fair to note this when comparing nukes to conventional weapons. You seem to be simultaneously acknowledging this fact and taking issue with me for also stating it. Now stop comparing the lethality of conventional and nuclear attacks from WWII which were nothing like the new "fair" standard. How about we change the HE bombs into biowar weapons, then call that "fair". I acknowledge that bioweapons are equal to nukes in killing people. They are considered WMDs for very good reason. It would also be possible to combine bioweapons with conventional weapons, and get the casualty levels and property destruction that a nuke would produce. presumably also against unwarned populations. I think it is reasonable to account for that. I just don't think it accounts for *all* the difference. Also, given that a nuclear strike can hit with very little warning, there might not be much time for a population to prepare. Now what are we comparing? WWII conventional air raids to ICBMs? I think nukes have more potential to spring a sudden attack on a population than conventional weapons do, at any level of technology. |
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This will probably appear in the wrong place thanks to a buggy news server
hiroshima facts wrote in message . .. "Geoffrey Sinclair" wrote in message ... I suggest you go look up the various damage levels involved in the different attacks instead of telling us you are "facts" when you are supplying "thoughts". Someone decided to use 2km as the radius to measure the lethality for the nuclear strikes but a much larger area for the conventional strikes, skewing the results. OK, here is my version, No this is not a version, this is a change of subject, from the fact the definitions were changed when comparing the lethality of WWII nuclear and conventional attacks. based on damage levels: Using nukes, it is possible to subject a city to multiple groundbursts resulting in at least 100 PSI overpressure throughout a large area. Bomb shelters that are conspicuous enough to be detected by reconnaissance flights can be targeted for a direct hit. I see, bomb shelters that are conspicuous, direct hit, I presume you have noticed the accuracy of the nuclear weapons strikes, the aiming points were missed. I presume you have noticed the average accuracy of WWII bombers dropping from 30,000 feet. I presume all the aircraft release together and achieve a perfect bombing pattern, with no weapon caught in the blast of another before it detonates. Direct hits presumably mean ground bursts? Why not parachute commandos in with machine guns and line up the population and just shoot them? It seems as realistic. Note deliberately targeting air raid shelters is more than any air force did in WWII, also such structures would best be attacked by armour piercing bombs. I expect that this will result in 99.9999% casualties amongst any part of the populace within the 100 PSI zone that is not inside an inconspicuous 100 PSI blast shelter. It is becoming clear that your assumptions are nuclear weapons incredibly bad, definitions altered to suit. You can explain how come 7% of the people caught within 1,000 feet survived the real attacks despite no warning but you have decided to announce only 1 survivor in a million for your hypothetical attack? Had WWII continued, our weapons output in early 1946 should have been able to produce enough A-bombs every three months to achieve that level of destruction over an area of 3.5 square miles. The Tokyo fire storm raid destroyed nearly 16 square miles or nearly 25% of all buildings in the city. Right so we have nuclear attacks delivering 60 to 100,000 kt being compared to conventional attacks delivering around 5% the explosive yield. Furthermore the aircrew delivering the nuclear attacks have superb intelligence and well above average accuracy, no weather problems, interceptions, mechanical failures and so on. The bomb tonnage delivered by the 20th Air Force looks like this, month, tonnage Jun-44 547 Jul-44 209 Aug-44 252 Sep-44 521 Oct-44 1,669 Nov-44 2,205 Dec-44 3,661 Jan-45 3,410 Feb-45 4,020 Mar-45 15,283 Apr-45 17,492 May-45 24,285 Jun-45 32,542 Jul-45 43,091 Aug-45 21,873 Now add the arrival of the previously European based bomber units to the 1946 attacks if we are going to talk 1946, including RAF units. After all there was still 75% of Tokyo to go. I expect that no conventional weapons attack, from any era you choose, could achieve that level of casualties. This is hardly surprising, since the nuclear attacks are simply allowed to be so good and so much bigger than the attacks they are being compared to. The result was in before the experiment was run. Fair also seems to be assuming multiple larger atomic attacks, Since a modern nuclear attack would use enough nukes to achieve whatever level of damage was desired, I don't see why it isn't fair to consider that. Let us understand this, it is "fair" to compare lethality of conventional and nuclear attacks from WWII by assuming the nuclear attacks are multiple, modern attacks. It looks like the biggest conventional raid in WWII was around 1/3 the size of the smallest nuclear weapon used in terms of explosive power. So now we compare delivering what, 10 to 100 times more explosive power and announce hey the bigger strike is more lethal. Congratulations. Since nuclear weapons have to potential to provide much more explosive power than can be achieved by conventional weapons, and thus kill far more people than can be achieved by conventional weapons, I think it is fair to note this when comparing nukes to conventional weapons. Try again, fair is comparing lethality versus the effort expended, tonnage of explosives used for example, not by changing the definitions. You seem to be simultaneously acknowledging this fact and taking issue with me for also stating it. Now stop comparing the lethality of conventional and nuclear attacks from WWII which were nothing like the new "fair" standard. How about we change the HE bombs into biowar weapons, then call that "fair". Now stop comparing the lethality of conventional and nuclear attacks from WWII which were nothing like the new "fair" standard. How about we change the HE bombs into biowar weapons, then call that "fair". I acknowledge that bioweapons are equal to nukes in killing people. They are considered WMDs for very good reason. I suggest rather than changing the subject you start to analyse why you need to bias the results in favour of nuclear weapons. It would also be possible to combine bioweapons with conventional weapons, and get the casualty levels and property destruction that a nuke would produce. It is also possible to achieve, with conventional weapons, the sorts of lethalities that were seen in the nuclear attacks. It was also quite possible to have minimal loss of life in a major conventional attack. These are the results of thousands of WWII bombing raids. Trying to selectively choose results and definitions to make the 2 nuclear attacks look more lethal is foolish, after all in absolute terms Nagasaki was around 1/2 the casualties, and in explosive terms around 2/7 the casualties. Those figures alone should give pause to the creation of wonder nuclear strikes. deleted bits, to the next The limit on conventional delivery of explosives is aircraft over target, the Lancaster delivered around 10,000 pounds of bombs, put a modern bomber on the job and the number goes up by a factor of 4 or so. Or simply switch to a combination of conventional bombing and missile strikes to increase the explosive delivery rate. Just as the WWII limitations on nuclear strikes have gone away, keep the bomb small enough for the aircraft to survive, the limitations on delivering conventional bombs have been significantly reduced. Hamburg was so lethal because of the firestorm killing people in otherwise safe shelters. Normally the best thing to do in an air raid is get into a shelter. Large numbers of people running away on the surface are going to be killed by blast, stampedes, vehicle collisions and so on. presumably also against unwarned populations. I think it is reasonable to account for that. I just don't think it accounts for *all* the difference. Also, given that a nuclear strike can hit with very little warning, there might not be much time for a population to prepare. Now what are we comparing? WWII conventional air raids to ICBMs? deleted text, to the next "The IJN strike on Pearl Harbor used around 0.1 to 0.15 kt of bombs, killed 2,400 people. The bomb dropped on Hiroshima was around 100 times more powerful, it should have killed 240,000 people at this level of lethality. Take away the people killed on the Arizona and you still end up with the Hiroshima bomb needing to kill around 120,000 for equivalent lethality. Try to understand the results of air raids in WWII varied dramatically, using 2 attacks to generalise the effects is an exercise in selective quotation, not facts." I think nukes have more potential to spring a sudden attack on a population than conventional weapons do, at any level of technology. I would have thought the sudden attack ability comes down to the delivery system, aircraft, ICBM, shipping container, truck, and the warning system in place to detect the approaching delivery system. There are clear examples from WWII of populations ignoring warnings until it was too late because the bombers had previously always attacked somewhere else. The rest of the post is simply deleted text, Again this assumes people are unprotected and ignores the fact fleeing during an attack is likely to raise the number of dead. The protection from blast gives good protection from radiation. A machine gun can kill thousands of people per hour if they have no protection. Now we have "core area" to go with "area affected". Understand there are plenty of raids in WWII that killed more people than the atomic strikes per ton of explosive dropped. Even in terms of absolute numbers killed Hiroshima comes in at 1 or 2 with Tokyo, Nagasaki at 4 behind Hamburg at 3, Dresden at 5. It has everything to do with it if you want to compare conventional and nuclear attack lethalities, otherwise why not simply compare the lethality of say 2 Zeppelins in WWI and 100 Lancasters in WWII. No guess as to which one kills more people. Sigh, to minimise casualties move people before or after the raid, not during it, keep shelters away from flammable areas, keep the people in the shelters during the raid. Movement during a raid is obscured by smoke and dust and exposes people to shrapnel, blast, stampedes and rapidly changing conditions, the "bridge" to safety being hit for example, the confusion as landmarks are destroyed or obscured. In WWII the lethality of conventional attacks varied widely, starting large fires was the usual way of killing large numbers of people, incendiary bombs were the best way to start fires. The WWII nuclear attacks were at least 3 times more powerful in explosive terms than the biggest conventional raid, but the biggest conventional raid was not the most lethal, in either absolute terms or deaths per ton of bombs used. So far instead of supplying facts you are supplying opinions and showing a great lack of knowledge about the results of conventional air raids. Then you bias the definitions to make the nuclear attacks look more dangerous. Geoffrey Sinclair Remove the nb for email. |
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On Fri, 2 Apr 2004 15:43:00 +1000, "Geoffrey Sinclair"
wrote: Now add the arrival of the previously European based bomber units to the 1946 attacks if we are going to talk 1946, including RAF units. Quite, with AIR plans for 1000 odd Avro Lincolns coming to the party. ISTR also talk of making them inflight refuelable. greg -- Cast in the name of God. Ye not guilty. |
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Greg Hennessy wrote in message . ..
On 1 Apr 2004 06:21:13 -0800, (Eunometic) wrote: Most Americans would be better of if the Germans had of developed nuclear exposives first and demonstrated them on empty US landscape. KER-PLONK, begone idiotic national socialist gob****e. greg I'm always pleased when irritants like you self censore themselves. I stand by my assertion. The US people lost by firstly getting involved in the war and finally by ensuring the defeat of Germany and thereby the spread of communism. Apart from the vast resources she devoted to containing communism the USA developed an ideology to match the internationalism of communism that is leading to the disolution of the descendents of the people that fought. |
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