planes vs cycles

As for your sample comparison, if you're looking for passenger-flight safety
numbers then yes, the airliner is 600 times "more dangerous" than the
motorcycle when measured in fatalities per trip (I don't know where you came
up with 302, since you failed to specify your units).


There are two crew members on a jetliner. At least the hypothetical one I was
using. One jet crashes, killing all aboard (300 pax, 2 crew). This represents
half of all jet activity. One motorcycle crashes, killing all aboard (one
person). This represents half of all motorcycle activity (in my hypthetical
Oz).

So, if we "count" the fatalities, a jet is 302 times more dangerous. But if we
just count the fatals, they are equally dangerous.

If these statistics hold up for the next year (two flights, two motorcycle
rides), and I decide to fly rather than take the motorcycle, how much more
likely am I to die? Not 302 times more likely.

I never said anything about making relative comparisons.

That's what the thread's about.

As for "more likely to kill a given person" that depends on whether the person
is given before making the choice (to fly or ride), or after.

Jose

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