The next attack (On Topic)

Why is this on topic for this forum? Face it, even if the next terrorist
action is carried out with trained hamsters marching down 42 ND street with
little explosive backpacks, shutting down general aviation will be a
centerpiece of the response.

Those of us in aviation have followed the security situation more closely
than most so we know that Al Qaeda can pretty much attack at will. The TFR'
s, the chain link fences installed around rural airports, the 2% of shipping
containers inspected, may have lengthened the terrorist planning sessions by
a couple hours but the nation is a colander. Plugging up a dozen holes hasn'
t changed the situation a bit.

The timing of the next attack can be predicted by figuring out what Al Qaeda
would want to achieve at this point. If being stranded away from home or
otherwise losing the use of your airplane would be a problem, you should
give this some thought in the same way you might look at the tropical
weather patterns before planning a late summer flight to the east coast.

One of the very few things that our intelligence (is that the right word?)
apparatus has gotten right is the idea that the election is the big, fat,
juicy target. The ship of state forges on with its great inertia making it
virtually immune to outside influences. Once every four years however, the
wheel is connected directly to a big flapping sail that can be yanked either
way by the gusts of public opinion and fear. Public opinion and fear is what
terrorism is all about. It's an opportunity not to be missed.

If Al Qaeda wants to influence the election, which way are they going to
cast their "vote"? Important question if you are planning a GA trip around
the time of either convention. Before giving it some more thought, I said,
"The republican convention, of course." All the leadership that conceived
and carried out the Iraq war gathered in the most symbolic city and also the
one that by geography and demographics is the easiest in which to mount an
attack. Who could resist?

On the other hand Bush and his administration have made the most basic and
fundamental error in the war on terror. It's the same mistake we made in
Vietnam and that the British made in the revolution. It's best illustrated
by the Israeli struggle with the suicide bombers. Israel thinks that the
struggle is one of whether they can blow up enough safe houses and attack
enough Hamas leaders from the air to force the Palestinians to stop. Hamas
knows that the purpose of the suicide bombing is to get Israel to attack
safe houses and shoot at cars with helicopters so they can build the kind of
society in which martyrdom is taught as part of the first grade curriculum.
So far, they are winning.

The purpose of Al Qaeda is not primarily to influence U.S. or world opinion
or actions. They are taking a much longer view. Their object is to influence
the hearts and minds inside the Muslim world so that their jihad becomes the
kind of irresistible tidal wave of history that took out communism.

I do not question Bush's resolve, toughness, integrity, or patriotism but he
is repeating one of history's oldest mistakes. I just heard a reporter who
has been in close contact with the resistance in Iran since the beginning.
Thousands of former Sadam toughs who, a year ago, were leading lives about
as secular as street hoods in any nation have now given up drinking,
smoking, and become devout and fanatic Muslims dedicated to the Bin Laden
cause. As even people in the Bush administration have said, we are creating
terrorists far faster than we are killing them. We were bailing the boat
with a thimble and then we put a two foot hole in it.

If Bin Laden were an all powerful puppet master who could direct events
precisely, he could not have done better than to create the Bush, Cheney,
Rumsfeld, gang. The Viet Cong were overjoyed when Nixon began bombing the
north. They knew that the war would be won by transporting disassembled
artillery pieces by bike and foot along jungle trails and that a populous
whose homes were being bombed would turn to that task with much greater
will. History repeats itself. If Al Qaeda thinks it can influence the
outcome of the election, I'm sure they will strive to keep Bush in office.

How Al Qaeda will attempt to support Bush I'm not sure. Bin Laden is clearly
a student of history though and knows that a panicked electorate will be
unlikely to switch to a new leader in a crisis. An early attack would also
leave time for investigation and recrimination that could lead to a desire
for change. The democratic convention is too early. I'll fly with little
worry this month.

The republican convention is also early but they might feel that this is
outweighed by the effect on their own troops and undecided potential jihad
members of staging a spectacular attack on the perceived enemy. I wouldn't
lay bets on this one.

Both during the republican convention and the last half of October, I'm
going to try and fly so that the ATC call to land immediately will leave me
and my plane at a convenient airport.

--
Roger Long