Scared of mid-airs

On Fri, 05 May 2006 21:17:02 GMT, "Mortimer Schnerd, RN"
wrote in
::


Larry Dighera wrote:
Please explain how the 'big sky theory' will PROTECT you from a MAC.


Easy enough. As an old environmental biology professor once said to me:
"Dilution is the solution to pollution".

With all due respect, while that may be true for pollution, I don't
believe it is applicable to PROTECTION from a MAC.

What are the chances of another aircraft occupying the exact same airspace
at the exact same time as mine?

What are the chances of the cylinder containing a bullet? The only
way a Russian Roulette participant can be PROTECTED from blowing his
head off is if the cylinder is empty or the safety is on. Neither
analogy is available to airmen; there are always aircraft in the NAS.

That deems the 'big sky theory' irrelevant, in my opinion.

The odds go way up near natural collecting points ...

[Interesting antidotes snipped]

What you describe has nothing to do with PROTECTION and everything to
do with PROBABILITY. Thanks for the effort.

My point is, that there is no PROTECTION; if there were, there
wouldn't be any MACs.

And the 'big sky theory' is a fallacy. It's akin to the Tooth Fairy,
Easter Bunny, imaginary friends, ... Those who rely upon the 'big sky
theory to PROTECT them from a MAC are playing Russian Roulette.

-------------------

To further constrain the discussion of 'big sky theory,' here's a
definition: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_sky_theory

In aviation, the Big Sky Theory is that two randomly flying bodies
will likely never collide, as the three dimensional space is so
large relative to the bodies. Certain aviation safety rules are
based on this concept. It does not apply (or applies less) when
aircraft are flying along specific narrow routes, such as an
airport traffic pattern.

So the BST seems to have everything to do with probability, but very
little to do with protecting, guaranteeing, or indemnifying against a
MAC.

Additionally, the BST is flawed in that (as defined) it fails to
consider more than two aircraft in the air simultaneously.