Cirrus... is it time for certification review?

Ron Wanttaja wrote:
On Sat, 28 Oct 2006 17:10:46 GMT, wrote:
If you assume that each aircraft went into service the year of its
airworthiness date, you can get the fleet size by year:

Actually, that date (fields 229-236) relates more to the current owner,
than the manufacture date.

That column is labeled as "certificate issue date" in the FAA database
and I agree that it changes more often. That's not what I used, though -
I used the "airworthiness date", positions 266-273. I know of a couple
of aircraft that have changed hands a few times, and the certificate
issue date usually tracks the latest change of ownership, but the
airworthiness date usually corresponds to the original year of
manufacture.

Fields 52-55 contain the official "Year Manufactured."

Yep, it's still there. I just didn't think of using it when I compiled
the data the first time.

Nice idea, though...re-run your query using the Year Manufactured, and
let's have another look at the data.

Here it is, noted with "YOM". I have included the data from my first
post, noted with "A/W", for comparison.

Total Cirrus Design SR-20 entries in the master file: 597
Total Cirrus Design SR-22 entries in the master file: 2022

SR-20 entries in master file, listed by airworthiness date and by year
of manufactu

A/W YOM
blank 39 39
1981 1 1
1995 0 1
1997 1 0
1998 0 3
1999 5 8
2000 78 78
2001 46 45
2002 84 84
2003 96 94
2004 78 77
2005 86 87
2006 83 80

If you assume that each aircraft went into service the year of its
airworthiness date or in its year of manufacture, you can get the
fleet size by year:

End Fleet size by
of A/W YOM
1997 2 2
1998 2 5
1999 7 13
2000 85 91
2001 131 136
2002 215 220
2003 311 314
2004 389 391
2005 475 478
2006 558 558 (through early October)

SR-22 entries in master file, listed by airworthiness date and by year
of manufactu

A/W YOM
blank 174 175
2001 121 126
2002 262 267
2003 304 307
2004 431 430
2005 442 445
2006 288 272

Fleet size by year:

End Fleet size by
of A/W YOM
2001 121 126
2002 383 393
2003 687 700
2004 1118 1130
2005 1560 1575
2006 1848 1847 (through early October)

As a comparison, I did the same queries for the Cessna 172, including
the models 172, 172[ABCDEFGHIJKLMNPQRS], 172RG, P172D, R172[EGHJK],
T172, and CE-172-R172. Because this covers a much longer period of
time, some of the assumptions above are not as likely to be valid.

Total Cessna 172 entries in the master file: 26697

Cessna 172 entries in master file, listed by airworthiness date and by
year of manufactu

A/W YOM
blank 1825 1040
garbled 13 57
1955 79 107
1956 780 956
1957 540 583
1958 447 543
1959 517 566
1960 494 581
1961 457 493
1962 448 509
1963 608 678
1964 782 862
1965 901 1010
1966 909 1069
1967 507 569
1968 765 912
1969 721 708
1970 438 483
1971 463 476
1972 625 658
1973 979 1023
1974 1065 1149
1975 1202 1313
1976 1387 1468
1977 1430 1443
1978 1289 1368
1979 1294 1257
1980 880 811
1981 725 691
1982 248 222
1983 163 87
1984 159 143
1985 157 180
1986 97 81
1987 23 0
1988 27 3
1989 41 0
1990 42 0
1991 21 0
1992 38 0
1993 49 0
1994 41 1
1995 48 0
1996 48 1
1997 228 191
1998 344 293
1999 381 355
2000 385 353
2001 295 267
2002 291 248
2003 277 244
2004 216 181
2005 312 292
2006 196 170

Fleet size by year:

End Fleet size by
of A/W YOM
1955 79 107
1956 859 1063
1957 1399 1646
1958 1846 2189
1959 2363 2755
1960 2857 3336
1961 3314 3829
1962 3762 4338
1963 4370 5016
1964 5152 5878
1965 6053 6888
1966 6962 7957
1967 7469 8526
1968 8234 9438
1969 8955 10146
1970 9393 10629
1971 9856 11105
1972 10481 11763
1973 11460 12786
1974 12525 13935
1975 13727 15248
1976 15114 16716
1977 16544 18159
1978 17833 19527
1979 19127 20784
1980 20007 21595
1981 20732 22286
1982 20980 22508
1983 21143 22595
1984 21302 22738
1985 21459 22918
1986 21556 22999
1987 21579 22999
1988 21606 23002
1989 21647 23002
1990 21689 23002
1991 21710 23002
1992 21748 23002
1993 21797 23002
1994 21838 23003
1995 21886 23003
1996 21934 23004
1997 22162 23195
1998 22506 23488
1999 22887 23843
2000 23272 24196
2001 23567 24463
2002 23858 24711
2003 24135 24955
2004 24351 25136
2005 24663 25428
2006 24859 25598 (through early October)

John Smith posted the following:

Accidents and incidents (from theFAA and NTSB databases)
1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
SR20 1 0 2 3 0 1 2 7
SR22 - - 2 2 3 8 12 15

Using that data along with the fleet size data:

SR-20

Fleet % accidents
End size by Acci- by
of A/W YOM dents A/W YOM
1997 2 2 0 0 0
1998 2 5 1 50 20
1999 7 13 0 0 0
2000 85 91 0 0 0
2001 131 136 2 1.5 1.5
2002 215 220 3 1.4 1.3
2003 311 314 0 0 0
2004 389 391 1 0.26 0.26
2005 475 478 2 0.42 0.42
2006 558 558 7 1.3 1.3 (through early October)

SR-22

Fleet % accidents
End size by Acci- by
of A/W YOM dents A/W YOM
2001 121 126 2 1.7 1.6
2002 383 393 2 0.52 0.51
2003 687 700 3 0.44 0.43
2004 1118 1130 8 0.72 0.71
2005 1560 1575 12 0.77 0.76
2006 1848 1847 15 0.81 0.81 (through early October)

Combined SR-20 and SR-22

Fleet % accidents
End size by Acci- by
of A/W YOM dents A/W YOM
1997 2 2 0 0 0
1998 2 5 1 50 20
1999 7 13 0 0 0
2000 85 91 0 0 0
2001 252 262 4 1.6 1.5
2002 598 613 5 0.84 0.82
2003 998 1014 3 0.30 0.30
2004 1507 1521 9 0.59 0.59
2005 2035 2053 14 0.69 0.68
2006 2406 2405 21 0.87 0.87 (through early October)

Finally, taking the combined SR-20 and SR-22 data for 2001-2006, and
applying it to the 172 fleet size, we get an approximate number of
accidents and incidents that would be expected from the 172 fleet, if
the 172 and SR-20/22 have about the same safety record:

Cessna 172

Fleet Expected number of
End size by accidents by
of A/W YOM A/W YOM
2001 23567 24463 374 373
2002 23858 24711 199 202
2003 24135 24955 72.6 73.8
2004 24351 25136 145 149
2005 24663 25428 170 173
2006 24859 25598 217 224 (through early October)

Matt Roberds