Safety, yet again...

Which is safer flying or driving?

Fatalities per million trips Odds of being
killed on a single trip:
Airliner (Part 121) 0.019
52.6 million to 1
Automobile 0.130
7.6 million to 1
Commuter Airline (Part 135 scheduled) 1.72 581,395 to
1
Commuter Plane (Part 135 - Air taxi on demand) 6.10 163,934 to 1
General Aviation (Part 91) 13.3
73,187 to 1

(Sources: NTSB Accidents and Accident Rates by NTSB Classification
1995-2004 DOT Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) 1995- 2004
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.)

It's pretty obvious that GA is the poor step-child of aviation.

Does anyone know how to extract the "stupid pilot trick" fatalities
(I.E.: Running out of gas; Flying into terrain; Buzzing your
girlfriend's house; etc.) from this statistic?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Gosh, I hate it when formating gets all screwed up like that. Let's
try THIS:

Which is safer flying or driving?

Fatalities per million trips
Airliner (Part 121) 0.019
Odds of being killed on a single trip:
52.6 million to 1

Fatalities per million trips
Automobile 0.130
Odds of being killed on a single trip:
7.6 million to 1

Fatalities per million trips
Commuter Airline (Part 135 scheduled) 1.72
Odds of being killed on a single trip:
581,395 to 1

Fatalities per million trips
Commuter Plane (Part 135 - Air taxi on demand) 6.10
Odds of being killed on a single trip:
163,934 to 1

Fatalities per million trips
General Aviation (Part 91) 13.3
Odds of being killed on a single trip:
73,187 to 1

(Sources: NTSB Accidents and Accident Rates by NTSB Classification
1995-2004 DOT Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) 1995- 2004
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.)

It's pretty obvious that GA is the poor step-child of aviation.

Does anyone know how to extract the "stupid pilot trick" fatalities
(I.E.: Running out of gas; Flying into terrain; Buzzing your
girlfriend's house; etc.) from this statistic?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message

Does anyone know how to extract the "stupid pilot trick" fatalities
(I.E.: Running out of gas; Flying into terrain; Buzzing your
girlfriend's house; etc.) from this statistic?

Why would you want to? You would then present a false picture of GA,
deliberately skewed to make it appear safer and more responsible than it
truly is.

Does anyone know how to extract the "stupid pilot trick" fatalities
(I.E.: Running out of gas; Flying into terrain; Buzzing your
girlfriend's house; etc.) from this statistic?

Why would you want to?

Because I'm interesting in *my* probability of dying in a plane crash,
not anyone elses.

Since I:

a) Usually fly with two pilots on board
b) Have a well-oiled cockpit resource management scheme in place
c) Always top off the tanks after each flight
d) Never fly IFR
e) Never fly at night
f) Never "buzz" anyone's house
g) Never skip a pre-flight inspection
h) Personally supervise the maintenance of my plane
i) Don't let anyone else fly my plane
j) Rarely fly in mountains
k) Fly twice per week, on average
l) Maintain excellent health
m) Don't "skate" on maintenance
n) Keep the plane in a locked hangar

....I conclude that I may eliminate many of the "stupid pilot tricks"
from my personal risk assessment.

Trouble is, I don't know how to do that...
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

On 22 Apr 2006 22:04:51 -0700, "Jay Honeck"
wrote:

Because I'm interesting in *my* probability of dying in a plane crash,
not anyone elses.

We've been here before. Probability has to do with populations, not
with you as an individual. You do something, you wind up either dead
or alive. No fractions. The coin comes down either heads or tails.
It doesn't matter what side it came down on the last ten flips.

This is your life. Be careful. Enjoy. Select your risks.

Don

Because I'm interesting in *my* probability of dying in a plane crash,
not anyone elses.

We've been here before. Probability has to do with populations, not
with you as an individual. You do something, you wind up either dead
or alive. No fractions. The coin comes down either heads or tails.
It doesn't matter what side it came down on the last ten flips.

This is your life. Be careful. Enjoy. Select your risks.

Point taken, but surely there is knowledge to be gained by subtracting
the "stupid pilot tricks" from the total number of fatal accidents?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"Don Tuite" wrote in message
...
Because I'm interesting in *my* probability of dying in a plane crash,
not anyone elses.

We've been here before. Probability has to do with populations, not
with you as an individual.

It has to do with both. No one would complain (from a mathematical
standpoint) about someone decreasing their risk relative to aviation by
simply not getting in an airplane. So obviously personal choices have an
effect on safety.

To me, the real problem with trying to eliminate the "stupid pilot tricks"
component is that I think it likely that many of the pilots who are killed
doing something someone might consider a "stupid pilot trick" probably if
asked beforehand if they'd ever do something so stupid, would have said
"no". And all it takes is making the mistake once.

Heck, for that matter, some of the mistakes are deadly enough that in all
likelihood, most of the pilots killed by such mistakes did them only once.

Which means you can spend your whole flying career avoiding such mistakes,
without doing a single thing to affect your risk of being killed by one.
Why is that? Because the measured risk isn't of pilots who go around making
those mistakes, but rather is of ALL pilots where eventually some make one
of those mistakes.

In other words, it's a fallacy to remove any stupid pilot tricks from one's
"personal risk assessment". I do very much agree with you that it's a
mistake for someone to believe that their personal risk exposure is less
simply because they strive to avoid those stupid pilot tricks.

Now, all that said, looking at the differences between accidents caused by
stupid pilot tricks and accidents caused by something else should (one
hopes) give each pilot a strong appreciation for the importance of avoiding
those stupid pilot tricks. But that doesn't guarantee they won't make one
of those mistakes. It just means they are more strongly motivated to avoid
them.

Pete

Does anyone know how to extract the "stupid pilot trick" fatalities
(I.E.: Running out of gas; Flying into terrain; Buzzing your
girlfriend's house; etc.) from this statistic?
Why would you want to?
Because I'm interesting in *my* probability of dying in a plane crash,
not anyone elses.

Your probability is actually higher, just =because= you feel
invulnerable. You think that you would =never= make a stupid mistake.
Yet you have posted many stupid mistakes that you have made, some of
which you realized and some of which you still don't.

You've asked this question before, and you have gotten the same
responses before. It won't change, and it appears it won't change you
either. This is a classic accident-waiting-to-happen.

Jose
--
The price of freedom is... well... freedom.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

Your probability is actually higher, just =because= you feel
invulnerable. You think that you would =never= make a stupid mistake. Yet
you have posted many stupid mistakes that you have made, some of which you
realized and some of which you still don't.

He didn't say he would =never= make a stupid mistake, what he said is that
he strives to minimize his exposure to them. I've seen pilots drive up to
our local FBO, walk into the termina, get keys, go out to a rental C150, get
in, start up, taxi out (no runup) and do a mid-field departure (this is an
all-inclusive list). And I've seen this several times.

The results of that kind of behaviour is what Jay is able to avoid by taking
the precautions that he does. There's nothing wrong with the question. If
he (and I for that matter) want to see what our "chances" really are, then
I, for one, don't want to be included in the statistical analysis that
includes my impatient FBO customers that don't preflight, run-up or use all
the 4000ft runway. Because in my world, those three things aren't factors.

Does that mean that I won't die from an engine out or fuel starvation from
my own stupidity? No, but it does mean that I won't take-off with the
gustlocks installed or with detectable water in my fuel.

jf

A PIREP Jay wrote up about a flight to Las Vegas a month or two back
comes to mind - I think Jim Burns was the PIC with Jay a passenger. If
I recall correctly, there were multiple legs flown through high winds
on that trip - high enough to cause sickness to the pilot and
passenger(s), and enough to damage the aircraft during one landing. If
they had died, some would have labeled that flight a SPT.

The fact is that most accidents (car, plane, boat, etc) are caused by
one or more misjudgements/mistakes. We are all human and are all prone
to making mistakes. Certainly we can improve our odds somewhat by not
deliberately doing "stupid" things. But it only takes one mistake to
kill you one time...