I am in The Killing Zone

Thanks for a great post - I am just nearing the end of my PPL A training
here in the UK in a PA28-161 and have all of the same worries that you have,
in fact at the moment the more I learn, the more I question my abilities. I
do think however that if we truly relax or become complacent then we invite
problems upon ourselves.

Why fly when we aren't happy with the circumstances? I work very hard to be
able to afford my training and in fairness, if I don't enjoy it I might as
well tear up £20 notes. So, bearing that in mind I only fly if I feel
comfortable doing so. Surely this way we can derive more from our amazing
pastime and stay on the right side of the killing zone by being reasonable
and honest with ourselves in making decisions that, ultimately, our lives
depend upon. In my opinion a decision to stay on the floor is one that you
can never regret - there will always be another day as good as the last.
That said though, I do greatly enjoy my flying and the sense of liberty and
freedom that I get from it. We are all lucky to be flying and if we display
the responsibility and common-sense that should be synomonous with flying
then only we decide whether or not we come home.

After 350 hours there's a SHARP drop.

Well, the bad pilots have crashed.

And the uninterested pilots have quit flying.

And the elderly pilots have died of natural causes.

all the best -- Dan Ford
email: (put Cubdriver in subject line)

The Warbird's Forum www.warbirdforum.com
The Piper Cub Forum www.pipercubforum.com

It does require awareness that packages were once
bundled up with string rather than tape.

For years after this became a non-issue, the local post office had a
fierce-tempered clerk named Wally who kept a ball of string behind the
counter. If you gave him a taped package, he handed it back with the
string, and until you'd tied it to his satisfaction, he wouldn't
accept it for mailing.

all the best -- Dan Ford
email: (put Cubdriver in subject line)

The Warbird's Forum www.warbirdforum.com
The Piper Cub Forum www.pipercubforum.com

"Gary Drescher" wrote in message
news:xJ4wc.6579$Sw.1544@attbi_s51...
"Marco Rispoli" wrote in message
t...
Here's a pilot profile

Between 50 and 350 hours
...
This is the killing zone and that profile fits me to a T.

The problem I have with the Killing Zone is that the author never
establishes that the fatality rate per hour of flight time is any greater
for pilots in the 50-350 hour range than for pilots with any other level
of
experience. What he establishes instead is that the annual fatality rate
per
quantile of flight experience is elevated in that range of experience. But
it's conceivable, for instance, that disproportionately many hours each
year
are flown by pilots in that range. Then, you'd expect disproportionately
many fatalities in that range even if each hour flown by a pilot in that
range is as safe (or even safer) than an hour flown by other pilots.
Because
he hasn't normalized by the annual hours flown, the author hasn't
established that pilots in the designated "zone" have any elevated risk at
all.

--Gary

I'm a newly minted PP-ASEL and I'm as scared (though not as eloquent) as
Marco. Are you saying the whole thesis in The Killing Zone is based on such
an elementary methodological error?

Are you saying the whole thesis in The Killing Zone is based on such
an elementary methodological error?


There are many things in (popular) statisics that are based on elementary
methodological error. Sometimes this is deliberate (9 out of 10 doctors
reccomend...), sometimes not (most auto accidents occur within 25 miles of
home). As long as you are aware that 82.3% of statistics are bogus, your
understanding of reality will be unimpaired.

I have not read the Killing Zone, though I have heard of its claims. I would
say that the thing to take home is that there will come a time in ones flying
career when one thinks they "have it down" and start getting just a little bit
careless. You take shortcuts, you skip things, you extend the envelope too
far. That's when you get bit.

That said, underconfidence will also bite you. You are PILOT IN COMMAND, and
you need to fly with confidence. No matter the conditions, evaluate them, make
your decision, and execute it, remaining in command of the flight, because the
laws of physics and human nature are ready to pounce. Just don't let this
authority become bravado.

Jose

--
(for Email, make the obvious changes in my address)

"Joe Johnson" wrote in message
m...

I'm a newly minted PP-ASEL and I'm as scared (though not as eloquent) as
Marco. Are you saying the whole thesis in The Killing Zone is based on
such
an elementary methodological error?

Yup. Of course, a sound analysis might still yield a similar result. We just
don't know.

--Gary

Teacherjh wrote:

That said, underconfidence will also bite you. You are PILOT IN COMMAND,

Yes, this is an important point. One must not mentally hand over control to
anyone else. It's a trap I recently discussed with some other pilots: Who
is PIC when flying with an instructor.

This is the instructor with whom I did my instrument work, and with whom I'm
doing at least some of my commercial work. But *I* am in charge, and I
cannot assume that he's there to "bail me out" if there's ever a bad choice
being made.

In a way, it's a difficult line. I've always thought that one reason for
flying with an instructor was to push one's personal envelope. So
conditions that might be just beyond my personal minimums are something I'd
try out with an instructor on board. In a sense, this is a case where I am
hoping for a "bail out" should I get in over my head.

I've not thought about it quite this way before, and I'm curious what others
might think.

- Andrew

Cub Driver wrote:

For years after this became a non-issue, the local post office had a
fierce-tempered clerk named Wally who kept a ball of string behind the
counter. If you gave him a taped package, he handed it back with the
string, and until you'd tied it to his satisfaction, he wouldn't
accept it for mailing.

Yet another reason for the success of UPS.

George Patterson
None of us is as dumb as all of us.

Andrew Gideon wrote:

In a way, it's a difficult line. I've always thought that one reason for
flying with an instructor was to push one's personal envelope. So
conditions that might be just beyond my personal minimums are something I'd
try out with an instructor on board. In a sense, this is a case where I am
hoping for a "bail out" should I get in over my head.

I've not thought about it quite this way before, and I'm curious what others
might think.

It's been years since I've flown with an instructor who knows how to handle a Maule.
Since I've always been the most experienced pilot on board my plane since about 3
months after I bought it, I got out of the habit of thinking the CFI was there to
bail me out long ago. I'd bet that I'd keep the same mindset now even if I were to
fly with a high-time Maule CFI.

George Patterson
None of us is as dumb as all of us.

"Cub Driver" wrote in message
...

After 350 hours there's a SHARP drop.

And the elderly pilots have died of natural causes.

Not all of us! :-)

Dudley Henriques
International Fighter Pilots Fellowship
Commercial Pilot/ CFI Retired
For personal email, please replace
the z's with e's.
dhenriquesATzarthlinkDOTnzt