What have we learned from all this?

On Monday, February 22, 2021 at 11:35:24 AM UTC-7, Soartech wrote:
FYI, after getting your 2nd vaccine shot some people are experiencing a fever and other symptoms of fighting an infection. This is more common in people under 55, having stronger immune responses, which excludes many of us on this forum. However taking vitamin D3 daily, for at least a week or two before the shot may prevent this from happening. Why? Because vitamin D has been found to modulate the bodies immune response so that it does not make more inflammatory cytokines than are required to fight the virus. Many of the negative effects of any infection are caused by our bodies fighting it. Because we live and work indoors most residents of Europe and North America are vitamin D deficient. Taking vitamin D3 is an inexpensive and easy way to remedy this. Have your level checked during your next blood test. Should be 30 to 70 ng/ml.


I'm 73 years young and for the past six or seven months have taken Vitamin D3 daily X 2 the recommended daily requirement, and had side effects from the booster. Some people have side effects with the first shot, some with the booster and some not at all.

On Sunday, 21 February 2021 at 11:10:09 pm UTC+10, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Paul B wrote on 2/20/2021 9:18 PM:
"About 8000 people die every day. In a population of 56 million people (the number vaccinated so
far), primarily over 65 and a large number that have comorbidities, there will be quite a few
that die within a few days or weeks of the vaccination."

Fully agree, however the same logic was not applied to covid-19, I wonder why?

Cheers

Paul



On Sunday, 21 February 2021 at 2:50:15 pm UTC+10, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Gregg Ballou wrote on 2/19/2021 5:30 AM:
The Vaers data is out there for those that care to look beyond the fake news.
"We all know that the rooster crows before the dawn, but we don’t think the rooster makes the
sun come up, simply because they are related in time".

About 8000 people die every day. In a population of 56 million people (the number vaccinated so
far), primarily over 65 and a large number that have comorbidities, there will be quite a few
that die within a few days or weeks of the vaccination.

Don't blame the rooster for the sunrise - get vaccinated so we can continue to argue about
purity and motorgliders :^)
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1
I'm not quite sure what you mean by "logic was not applied to Covid-19". But, Covid caused so
many deaths, it altered the normal death rate enough to be be noticed; ie, "excess deaths",
especially in the retirement and nursing homes in the beginning. People that believe normal
deaths are being misreported as Covid cases are ignoring these excess deaths, and also the fact
that hospitals are being overwhelmed by Covid deaths, not the usual causes.
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

I am not disputing that the fact Covid-19 may caused death of some and hasten an impeding death of others.

My point was simply that different criteria are being used when when ascribing causality. As an example, if someone dies at 90 and may have had covid-19, it is counted as a covid-19 death without qualification. If the same person died following an Covid-19 injection, suddenly, the age and potential comorbidities are taken into account.
I am not an antivaxxer I have had all the shots, as did my children. I even partake in the flu shot. However none of these vaccines were developed at this speed and had so little testing. You simply cannot do a multi year longitudinal study in ten months. So clearly in terms of testing, corners were cut.

You mention the excess deaths, and I am looking at these numbers also, as I feel that those numbers should be least able to be manipulated. However the picture is not that clear. For one, it will probably be a number of years before the true numbers are in and potentially longer to examine the exces deaths that happened in subsequent years because of the reaction to covid-19, not because of it.

Finally, the immediate projection of excess death from the CDC website is also problematic. The US had a near linear increase in the number of deaths per 1000 over the last 5 years. Yet the CDC chose to average the the number of deaths over the last 5 years and then add some 100000 to that number for "slow reporting". If they chose to extrapolate the likely deaths, you would have an entirely different numbers of excess death. The results and methodology is on CDC website.

On Mon, 22 Feb 2021 19:28:05 -0800, Paul B wrote:

On Sunday, 21 February 2021 at 11:10:09 pm UTC+10, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Paul B wrote on 2/20/2021 9:18 PM:
"About 8000 people die every day. In a population of 56 million
people (the number vaccinated so far), primarily over 65 and a large
number that have comorbidities, there will be quite a few that die
within a few days or weeks of the vaccination."

Fully agree, however the same logic was not applied to covid-19, I
wonder why?

Cheers

Paul



On Sunday, 21 February 2021 at 2:50:15 pm UTC+10, Eric Greenwell
wrote:
Gregg Ballou wrote on 2/19/2021 5:30 AM:
The Vaers data is out there for those that care to look beyond the
fake news.
"We all know that the rooster crows before the dawn, but we don’t
think the rooster makes the sun come up, simply because they are
related in time".

About 8000 people die every day. In a population of 56 million
people (the number vaccinated so far), primarily over 65 and a large
number that have comorbidities, there will be quite a few that die
within a few days or weeks of the vaccination.

Don't blame the rooster for the sunrise - get vaccinated so we can
continue to argue about purity and motorgliders :^)
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to
email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ions/download-
the-guide-1
I'm not quite sure what you mean by "logic was not applied to
Covid-19". But, Covid caused so many deaths, it altered the normal
death rate enough to be be noticed; ie, "excess deaths", especially in
the retirement and nursing homes in the beginning. People that believe
normal deaths are being misreported as Covid cases are ignoring these
excess deaths, and also the fact that hospitals are being overwhelmed
by Covid deaths, not the usual causes.
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to
email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg.../download-the-
guide-1

I am not disputing that the fact Covid-19 may caused death of some and
hasten an impeding death of others.

My point was simply that different criteria are being used when when
ascribing causality. As an example, if someone dies at 90 and may have
had covid-19, it is counted as a covid-19 death without qualification.
If the same person died following an Covid-19 injection, suddenly, the
age and potential comorbidities are taken into account.
I am not an antivaxxer I have had all the shots, as did my children. I
even partake in the flu shot. However none of these vaccines were
developed at this speed and had so little testing. You simply cannot do
a multi year longitudinal study in ten months. So clearly in terms of
testing, corners were cut.

You mention the excess deaths, and I am looking at these numbers also,
as I feel that those numbers should be least able to be manipulated.
However the picture is not that clear. For one, it will probably be a
number of years before the true numbers are in and potentially longer to
examine the exces deaths that happened in subsequent years because of
the reaction to covid-19, not because of it.

Finally, the immediate projection of excess death from the CDC website
is also problematic. The US had a near linear increase in the number of
deaths per 1000 over the last 5 years. Yet the CDC chose to average the
the number of deaths over the last 5 years and then add some 100000 to
that number for "slow reporting". If they chose to extrapolate the
likely deaths, you would have an entirely different numbers of excess
death. The results and methodology is on CDC website.

Different statisticians use different criteria is all.

IIRC in the US, if the death certificate lists COVID at all, then its
counted as a COVID death.

In the UK the death is counted as due to COVID if the deceased tested
positive for COVID within the last 28 days. This looks a little more
specific to me, a non-statician, but still not a cast-iron guarantee that
the death was in fact due to COVID: IOW its not clear whether somebody
who'd tested positive but symptomless and got splatted by a drunk driver
a week later would be included in the COVID death count. You'd think
they's be counted as a road death but one never knows...

Bottom line: national statistics are what your Office Of National
Statistics thinks are right. For everything.


--
Martin | martin at
Gregorie | gregorie dot org

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" (Mark Twain) is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.

On Tue, 23 Feb 2021 06:57:16 -0800, Mark Mocho wrote:

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" (Mark Twain) is a phrase describing
the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to
bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt
statistics used to prove an opponent's point.

Mark Twain is one of my heroes, along with Stephen Leacock, whose
"Boarding-house Geometry" is a gem.

Otherwise put: don't trust statistics unless you know sample size,
selection criteria and what smoothing algorithm, if any, was applied.


--
Martin | martin at
Gregorie | gregorie dot org

On Tue, 23 Feb 2021 06:57:16 -0800, Mark Mocho wrote:

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" (Mark Twain) is a phrase describing
the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to
bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt
statistics used to prove an opponent's point.

Mark Twain is one of my heroes, along with Stephen Leacock, whose
"Boarding-house Geometry" is a gem.

Otherwise put: don't trust statistics unless you know sample size,
selection criteria and what smoothing algorithm, if any, was applied.


--
Martin | martin at
Gregorie | gregorie dot org

Paul B wrote on 2/22/2021 7:28 PM:
On Sunday, 21 February 2021 at 11:10:09 pm UTC+10, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Paul B wrote on 2/20/2021 9:18 PM:
"About 8000 people die every day. In a population of 56 million people (the number vaccinated so
far), primarily over 65 and a large number that have comorbidities, there will be quite a few
that die within a few days or weeks of the vaccination."

Fully agree, however the same logic was not applied to covid-19, I wonder why?

Cheers

Paul



On Sunday, 21 February 2021 at 2:50:15 pm UTC+10, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Gregg Ballou wrote on 2/19/2021 5:30 AM:
The Vaers data is out there for those that care to look beyond the fake news.
"We all know that the rooster crows before the dawn, but we don’t think the rooster makes the
sun come up, simply because they are related in time".

About 8000 people die every day. In a population of 56 million people (the number vaccinated so
far), primarily over 65 and a large number that have comorbidities, there will be quite a few
that die within a few days or weeks of the vaccination.

Don't blame the rooster for the sunrise - get vaccinated so we can continue to argue about
purity and motorgliders :^)
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1
I'm not quite sure what you mean by "logic was not applied to Covid-19". But, Covid caused so
many deaths, it altered the normal death rate enough to be be noticed; ie, "excess deaths",
especially in the retirement and nursing homes in the beginning. People that believe normal
deaths are being misreported as Covid cases are ignoring these excess deaths, and also the fact
that hospitals are being overwhelmed by Covid deaths, not the usual causes.
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

I am not disputing that the fact Covid-19 may caused death of some and hasten an impeding death of others.

My point was simply that different criteria are being used when when ascribing causality. As an example, if someone dies at 90 and may have had covid-19, it is counted as a covid-19 death without qualification. If the same person died following an Covid-19 injection, suddenly, the age and potential comorbidities are taken into account.
I am not an antivaxxer I have had all the shots, as did my children. I even partake in the flu shot. However none of these vaccines were developed at this speed and had so little testing. You simply cannot do a multi year longitudinal study in ten months. So clearly in terms of testing, corners were cut.

You mention the excess deaths, and I am looking at these numbers also, as I feel that those numbers should be least able to be manipulated. However the picture is not that clear. For one, it will probably be a number of years before the true numbers are in and potentially longer to examine the exces deaths that happened in subsequent years because of the reaction to covid-19, not because of it.

Finally, the immediate projection of excess death from the CDC website is also problematic. The US had a near linear increase in the number of deaths per 1000 over the last 5 years. Yet the CDC chose to average the the number of deaths over the last 5 years and then add some 100000 to that number for "slow reporting". If they chose to extrapolate the likely deaths, you would have an entirely different numbers of excess death. The results and methodology is on CDC website.

I do not see the death determination being so different. Here in Washington State, death
attribution to Covid-19 requires a positive test and symptoms, and the reports include
information on comorbidities. My understanding is even more care is used to determine the cause
of deaths following vaccination, but even if you attribute all of them to the vaccine, it is
still a much smaller rate than deaths from infection.

The excess deaths are so great, we are not faced with teasing out a weak signal from a noisy
data set. There are times the excess deaths exceeded 30%! We can discuss the best way to
determine what the "normal" death rate should be, but that is a refinement that doesn't change
the big pictu people are dying at a high rate from Covid-19, and not from vaccinations.

This article shows how the excess deaths for the US are easily seen the in the data, as of
2/17/2021:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...eath-toll.html
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

On Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 11:51:26 AM UTC-5, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Paul B wrote on 2/22/2021 7:28 PM:
On Sunday, 21 February 2021 at 11:10:09 pm UTC+10, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Paul B wrote on 2/20/2021 9:18 PM:
"About 8000 people die every day. In a population of 56 million people (the number vaccinated so
far), primarily over 65 and a large number that have comorbidities, there will be quite a few
that die within a few days or weeks of the vaccination."

Fully agree, however the same logic was not applied to covid-19, I wonder why?

Cheers

Paul



On Sunday, 21 February 2021 at 2:50:15 pm UTC+10, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Gregg Ballou wrote on 2/19/2021 5:30 AM:
The Vaers data is out there for those that care to look beyond the fake news.
"We all know that the rooster crows before the dawn, but we don’t think the rooster makes the
sun come up, simply because they are related in time".

About 8000 people die every day. In a population of 56 million people (the number vaccinated so
far), primarily over 65 and a large number that have comorbidities, there will be quite a few
that die within a few days or weeks of the vaccination.

Don't blame the rooster for the sunrise - get vaccinated so we can continue to argue about
purity and motorgliders :^)
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1
I'm not quite sure what you mean by "logic was not applied to Covid-19". But, Covid caused so
many deaths, it altered the normal death rate enough to be be noticed; ie, "excess deaths",
especially in the retirement and nursing homes in the beginning. People that believe normal
deaths are being misreported as Covid cases are ignoring these excess deaths, and also the fact
that hospitals are being overwhelmed by Covid deaths, not the usual causes.
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

I am not disputing that the fact Covid-19 may caused death of some and hasten an impeding death of others.

My point was simply that different criteria are being used when when ascribing causality. As an example, if someone dies at 90 and may have had covid-19, it is counted as a covid-19 death without qualification. If the same person died following an Covid-19 injection, suddenly, the age and potential comorbidities are taken into account.
I am not an antivaxxer I have had all the shots, as did my children. I even partake in the flu shot. However none of these vaccines were developed at this speed and had so little testing. You simply cannot do a multi year longitudinal study in ten months. So clearly in terms of testing, corners were cut.

You mention the excess deaths, and I am looking at these numbers also, as I feel that those numbers should be least able to be manipulated. However the picture is not that clear. For one, it will probably be a number of years before the true numbers are in and potentially longer to examine the exces deaths that happened in subsequent years because of the reaction to covid-19, not because of it.

Finally, the immediate projection of excess death from the CDC website is also problematic. The US had a near linear increase in the number of deaths per 1000 over the last 5 years. Yet the CDC chose to average the the number of deaths over the last 5 years and then add some 100000 to that number for "slow reporting". If they chose to extrapolate the likely deaths, you would have an entirely different numbers of excess death. The results and methodology is on CDC website.
I do not see the death determination being so different. Here in Washington State, death
attribution to Covid-19 requires a positive test and symptoms, and the reports include
information on comorbidities. My understanding is even more care is used to determine the cause
of deaths following vaccination, but even if you attribute all of them to the vaccine, it is
still a much smaller rate than deaths from infection.

The excess deaths are so great, we are not faced with teasing out a weak signal from a noisy
data set. There are times the excess deaths exceeded 30%! We can discuss the best way to
determine what the "normal" death rate should be, but that is a refinement that doesn't change
the big pictu people are dying at a high rate from Covid-19, and not from vaccinations.

This article shows how the excess deaths for the US are easily seen the in the data, as of
2/17/2021:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...eath-toll.html
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

I really don't understand what all the fuss is about, we are all going to die anyway.

On Wednesday, 24 February 2021 at 2:51:26 am UTC+10, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Paul B wrote on 2/22/2021 7:28 PM:
On Sunday, 21 February 2021 at 11:10:09 pm UTC+10, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Paul B wrote on 2/20/2021 9:18 PM:
"About 8000 people die every day. In a population of 56 million people (the number vaccinated so
far), primarily over 65 and a large number that have comorbidities, there will be quite a few
that die within a few days or weeks of the vaccination."

Fully agree, however the same logic was not applied to covid-19, I wonder why?

Cheers

Paul



On Sunday, 21 February 2021 at 2:50:15 pm UTC+10, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Gregg Ballou wrote on 2/19/2021 5:30 AM:
The Vaers data is out there for those that care to look beyond the fake news.
"We all know that the rooster crows before the dawn, but we don’t think the rooster makes the
sun come up, simply because they are related in time".

About 8000 people die every day. In a population of 56 million people (the number vaccinated so
far), primarily over 65 and a large number that have comorbidities, there will be quite a few
that die within a few days or weeks of the vaccination.

Don't blame the rooster for the sunrise - get vaccinated so we can continue to argue about
purity and motorgliders :^)
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1
I'm not quite sure what you mean by "logic was not applied to Covid-19". But, Covid caused so
many deaths, it altered the normal death rate enough to be be noticed; ie, "excess deaths",
especially in the retirement and nursing homes in the beginning. People that believe normal
deaths are being misreported as Covid cases are ignoring these excess deaths, and also the fact
that hospitals are being overwhelmed by Covid deaths, not the usual causes.
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

I am not disputing that the fact Covid-19 may caused death of some and hasten an impeding death of others.

My point was simply that different criteria are being used when when ascribing causality. As an example, if someone dies at 90 and may have had covid-19, it is counted as a covid-19 death without qualification. If the same person died following an Covid-19 injection, suddenly, the age and potential comorbidities are taken into account.
I am not an antivaxxer I have had all the shots, as did my children. I even partake in the flu shot. However none of these vaccines were developed at this speed and had so little testing. You simply cannot do a multi year longitudinal study in ten months. So clearly in terms of testing, corners were cut.

You mention the excess deaths, and I am looking at these numbers also, as I feel that those numbers should be least able to be manipulated. However the picture is not that clear. For one, it will probably be a number of years before the true numbers are in and potentially longer to examine the exces deaths that happened in subsequent years because of the reaction to covid-19, not because of it.

Finally, the immediate projection of excess death from the CDC website is also problematic. The US had a near linear increase in the number of deaths per 1000 over the last 5 years. Yet the CDC chose to average the the number of deaths over the last 5 years and then add some 100000 to that number for "slow reporting". If they chose to extrapolate the likely deaths, you would have an entirely different numbers of excess death. The results and methodology is on CDC website.
I do not see the death determination being so different. Here in Washington State, death
attribution to Covid-19 requires a positive test and symptoms, and the reports include
information on comorbidities. My understanding is even more care is used to determine the cause
of deaths following vaccination, but even if you attribute all of them to the vaccine, it is
still a much smaller rate than deaths from infection.

The excess deaths are so great, we are not faced with teasing out a weak signal from a noisy
data set. There are times the excess deaths exceeded 30%! We can discuss the best way to
determine what the "normal" death rate should be, but that is a refinement that doesn't change
the big pictu people are dying at a high rate from Covid-19, and not from vaccinations.

This article shows how the excess deaths for the US are easily seen the in the data, as of
2/17/2021:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...eath-toll.html
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1
I am in complete agreement that total deaths will remove distractions of cause from the discussion.
However excess deaths have a problem with "excess to what". The CDC methodology published here https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm
States that they have averaged the last 5 years of weekly data to get the base. However, if you look at the death rates for those years you will see almost a perfectly linear increase year on year. So extrapolation may have been a better way to get to the true expected base. That would reduce the excess deaths by some 100000.
Anyway, I liked the the graph for NY, from the NYT. Kill them of early and have an easy time from then on

Blindness being reported as a vaccine side effect https://principia-scientific.com/uk-...-side-effects/