Good weather -- flying more?

The only thing certain today is that temperatures are higher than they
were a few decades ago. The causes are unknown, the future trend is
impossible to determine. Human activity may or may not be a factor.
There is a consistent tendency among human beings to overestimate
their importance and influence on the biosphere, and this should be
kept in mind when speculating.

Well put.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination'

Jay Honeck schrieb:
The only thing certain today is that temperatures are higher than they
were a few decades ago. The causes are unknown, the future trend is
impossible to determine. Human activity may or may not be a factor.
There is a consistent tendency among human beings to overestimate
their importance and influence on the biosphere, and this should be
kept in mind when speculating.

Well put.

But completely wrong.

Stefan writes:

But completely wrong.

If only that were true.

We know very little about the atmosphere of the planet and about
large-scale weather patterns, even though we know the equations that
govern atmospheric phenomena on a small scale. We do not have enough
data to accurately predict the weather, and there is no way to get
enough data. Even if we had it, we don't have the computing power to
make use of it. All weather prediction beyond 24-48 hours is based to
a large extent on speculation. The chaotic behavior of weather
ensures that we cannot get it right for more than a very short period
in the future.

Over the long term, the number of variables increases by orders of
magnitude. We don't understand the effects of any but a handful of
them, and even then, their long-term effects are unknown. We have no
way of knowing anything at all, really. We like to think that we know
it all, and we like to think that changes are our own doing (even when
they are bad changes), but we are woefully incorrect on both counts.

The future also depends on other variables that we cannot know in
advance, such as solar energy production. It depends on variables
that we haven't discovered yet, much less accurately measured.

While it's commendable to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas produced
by human beings, we don't really know if it will make any difference,
nor do we know if it has made any difference thus far. We can only
guess.

It seems that the most difficult thing for human beings to accept is
humility.

--
Transpose mxsmanic and gmail to reach me by e-mail.

Stefan wrote:
Jay Honeck schrieb:

The only thing certain today is that temperatures are higher than they
were a few decades ago. The causes are unknown, the future trend is
impossible to determine. Human activity may or may not be a factor.
There is a consistent tendency among human beings to overestimate
their importance and influence on the biosphere, and this should be
kept in mind when speculating.


Well put.


But completely wrong.

Only in the minds of politicians and "scientists" looking for grant
money from politicians.

Matt

Agreed. It is a "global" manifestation of the "me" generation. The world
revolves around "me," and its temperature depends on "you." Nothing but
self-importance and arrogance.

The Vikings maintained vinyards in Greenland during the Medieval Warm
Period. Perhaps CO2 can raise world temperature, but if so, what caused the
MWP? Was it CO2- if so where did it come from? Was the temperature because
of increased solar activity? If so, do we see increased solar activity
now? If so, would the increased solar activity alone account for any
observed increase in temperature? If so, why is there such hysteria over
burning carbon?

Don't get me wrong- I hate waste of any sort. We must be conservative of our
resources. We desperately need to move from an economy based upon oil, but
for reasons which have nothing to do with "global warming."

I'm with you. What we are seeing now isn't even a blip on the scale of
past climate cycles.

Matt

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message
ups.com...
We fly year-round, but many pilots around here seem to shut the hangar
door after Thanksgiving, and not open it again until Easter.

This year, with such unseasonably warm weather, I'm wondering if anyone
is seeing more GA traffic? We're not any more than a normal January
here in Iowa City -- which I find rather surprising, given the really
nice weather.

I suppose it's a habit thing: It's January, dammit, and folks just
don't expect to be flying -- so they're just NOT? Dunno -- but it's
sure been wonderful, flying in shirtsleeves in January...

What are you guys and gals seeing in your neck of the woods? Are you
taking advantage of it, and doing any (perhaps abnormal for mid-winter)
cross country flights?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Here in North Georgia, we're having spring like weather. It was in the upper
60's yesterday with several scattered layers of cumulus between 3,000 and
5,000 feet and occasional showers. Our EAA chapter went on a 70 mile
fly-out to an aviation themed restaurant.

Today, it is warm and completely overcast with rain, thunder, lightning, and
multiple tornado warnings. Not a whole lot of flying going on right now.

Kelly even asked a while ago "What is the safest room in the house in case
of a tornado." I told her there wasn't one ;-), but suggested the bathroom
in the basement might be the best choice.

KB

"Kyle Boatright" wrote

Kelly even asked a while ago "What is the safest room in the house in case
of a tornado." I told her there wasn't one ;-), but suggested the
bathroom in the basement might be the best choice.

Oh, great! Then you get picked up, spun around, and stuffed head first into
the toilet, and drown in 6 inches of toilet water! g
--
Jim in NC

Stefan wrote:

Jay Honeck schrieb:

The only thing certain today is that temperatures are higher than they
were a few decades ago. The causes are unknown, the future trend is
impossible to determine. Human activity may or may not be a factor.
There is a consistent tendency among human beings to overestimate
their importance and influence on the biosphere, and this should be
kept in mind when speculating.


Well put.


But completely wrong.

You have exactly a zero percent chance of knowing that.

Bob Noel wrote:

In article ,
Stefan wrote:



Greenland once was, well, green in the tenth century when Eric the Red
discovered it. Oranges grew in Ireland then. The Medieval Warming Period


The common argument. It's true. But it prooves exactly the opposite of
what you think it does.

The point is, look at the climate then and what the effect of a tiny
change was.



Was it cause and effect, or just correlation?



Another factor is the shifting of the Earth's core. IIRC, there was
something in the news the last year or so reporting something along
these lines.

"Morgans" wrote in message
...

"Kyle Boatright" wrote

Kelly even asked a while ago "What is the safest room in the house in
case of a tornado." I told her there wasn't one ;-), but suggested the
bathroom in the basement might be the best choice.

Oh, great! Then you get picked up, spun around, and stuffed head first
into the toilet, and drown in 6 inches of toilet water! g
--
Jim in NC

I wasn't too worried about that. She's pretty used to my smart assed
comments by now and her violent tendencies are on a downward trend.

KB