How safe is a new teenaged pilot?

Gary Drescher wrote:
"anon" wrote in message
news
Our 17 year old son want to fly as a passenger with his 17 year old friend
who
is a brand new pilot. We think the boy is level-headed and mature. He
grew up
flying with his dad who is a retired test pilot for an aircraft
manufacturer.

These credentials not withstanding, I'm guessing that there is increased
risk
of accidents with new pilots. We are uncomfortable about letting him fly
with
his friend, but we want to be reasonable.

I would appreciate any data or guidance this group could provide.


The standard reference for small-plane safety statistics is the Air Safety
Foundation's Nall Report (http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/03nall.pdf).
As far as I know, there are no good statistics about the safety of new
pilots vs. more-experienced pilots. But I doubt new pilots are at increased
risk. It's not that pilots' skills don't continue to improve; but newer
pilots will tend to avoid more-challenging flight circumstances (weather
etc.) that more-experienced pilots might not be deterred by, so the overall
risk might remain about the same.

The main additional risk is lack of well developed judgement. The 17
year-old likely has very good skill, but the thing I'd be a little
concerned about is would he exercise good judgement and not show off a
little for his friend. If he really is mature and level-headed, then I
think the risk is small.


Matt

Oddly enough, there's a statistic that seems to say that newly minted
pilots are fairly safe. Then they go into a decline as their
confidence builds. Then they get safer when their hours get over, say,
300.

So it's hard to suggest that you could put a lower limit (say 100
hours) on your son's friend.

The problem of course is that two testosterone-addled minds are worse
than one, as we all know who remember driving about with our buddies
in the Good Old Days. You should first of all insist that any flying
be in daylight. That's easy to enforce, and it removes a big source of
danger.

Flying in fact is fairly safe, and even a forced landing in a light
airplane is likely to be more survivable than an automobile pileup on
the turnpike. You've got that on your side!


-- all the best, Dan Ford

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"Cub Driver" wrote in message
...

Oddly enough, there's a statistic that seems to say that newly minted
pilots are fairly safe. Then they go into a decline as their
confidence builds. Then they get safer when their hours get over, say,
300.

Except, as Peter and I noted earlier in the thread, it's a *bogus*
statistic, because it's not properly normalized to adjust for the number of
pilots in each experience category (or to adjust for the annual hours flown
in each experience category). So the statistic in question does not actually
support the conclusion that safety declines until 300 hours or so.

--Gary

A 17 year old DRIVER might be perfectly responsible and safe when they're
driving by themselves or with and adult in the car. But put two 17 year
olds in the car together and you often have trouble.

I'm sure your son's 17 year old friend is a perfectly competant pilot, but
I'd be someone hesitant to allow two 17 year olds in the plane together.
There's likely to be a certain amout of "showing off" going on.




--
__!__
Jay and Teresa Masino ___(_)___
http://www2.ari.net/jmasino ! ! !
http://www.oceancityairport.com
http://www.oc-adolfos.com

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message
news:k4Vge.77243$WI3.40856@attbi_s71...
That report includes the statement that "ASF studies have shown that low
pilot time in type is often a significant contributing factor in
accidents." But I didn't see any specific data there to back it up.

I think if we read "between the lines" we will find that the poster is
really concerned with this pilot's youth -- perhaps more so than with his
low flight time.

A 17 year old boy is basically a fleshy container of hormones, with great
stamina, questionable stability, and loads of bravado. This is NOT
necessarily a great fit with being a new pilot -- especially when you put
two of these guys inside the same vehicle.

There are very good reasons that car insurance for 17 year old boys costs
exponentially more than for adults. They generally have poor judgment,
and are known to end their statements -- and sometimes their lives -- with
"Watch this!"

Personally, I'd be VERY reluctant to allow my son to fly with another 17
year old boy.
--


Jay,

Would you let your son drive with a 17 year old?

On Thu, 12 May 2005 22:11:32 -0400, anon wrote:

Our 17 year old son want to fly as a passenger with his 17 year old friend who
is a brand new pilot. We think the boy is level-headed and mature. He grew up
flying with his dad who is a retired test pilot for an aircraft manufacturer.

These credentials not withstanding, I'm guessing that there is increased risk
of accidents with new pilots. We are uncomfortable about letting him fly with
his friend, but we want to be reasonable.

I would appreciate any data or guidance this group could provide.

Thanks

Peter

I would guess (and I do acknowledge up front that this is a guess)
that there are no extraordinary risks associated with flying with this
new pilot. There are many factors that complicate the statistical
analysis of these risks, but two points come to my mind. One is that
a newly trained pilot is generally a very conciencious pilot. He
knows that he is new, lacks experience and has much to learn. That is
not necessary a negative. This causes most new pilots to be very
cautious as they expand their experience envelope. As such, they are
typically flying in familiar areas in very good weather conditions.
This helps to keep the overall risk at a low level. The second thing
is that many (certainly not all) pilots tend to develop bad habits
over the years and/or become complacent about things that used to
garner all of their attention. It's only human nature and pilots
fight that pull from the dark side constantly. With no time yet to
develop bad habits or become complacent and still being new enough to
truly be doing everything by the book, I don't think I'd have any
problem hopping into the right seat and enjoying a wonderful flight.
Rich Russell

anon wrote:
Our 17 year old son want to fly as a passenger with his 17 year old
friend who
is a brand new pilot. We think the boy is level-headed and mature.
He grew up
flying with his dad who is a retired test pilot for an aircraft
manufacturer.

These credentials not withstanding, I'm guessing that there is
increased risk
of accidents with new pilots. We are uncomfortable about letting him
fly with
his friend, but we want to be reasonable.

I would appreciate any data or guidance this group could provide.

While it is true that a new pilot will have an increased risk of an
accident over a more experienced pilot, it really has more to do with
what they want to do. Going up for an hour around your home town is
pretty basic for a new private pilot. As pilots start flying in more
weather and on further trips, they need to jump in slow enough that
their experience bucket fills up faster than their luck bucket drains.
However, for a fun flight around town he should have a great time.
Understand that before this young man became a pilot he had to convince
not only his instructor (CFI) that he was a good pilot with good
judgement, he also had to convince an FAA designated examiner.
Personally, as a father and as a former young man myself ( ) I would
probably want to restrict them to just the two of them. Two young men
can be pretty responsible. As you get 3 or 4 together things can
sometimes get a bit extream.

-Robert, CFI

I'd be more worried about one with 200 to 300 hours who's starting
to get over confident and push the envelope.


"anon" wrote in message
news
Our 17 year old son want to fly as a passenger with his 17 year old friend
who
is a brand new pilot. We think the boy is level-headed and mature. He
grew up
flying with his dad who is a retired test pilot for an aircraft
manufacturer.

These credentials not withstanding, I'm guessing that there is increased
risk
of accidents with new pilots. We are uncomfortable about letting him fly
with
his friend, but we want to be reasonable.

I would appreciate any data or guidance this group could provide.

Thanks

Peter

Jay Masino wrote:

There's likely to be a certain amout of "showing off" going on.

Flying an airplane isn't "showing off" enough? It used to be, damn it!

Laugh

- Andrew

"anon" wrote in message

Our 17 year old son want to fly as a passenger with his 17 year old friend
who
is a brand new pilot. We think the boy is level-headed and mature. He
grew up
flying with his dad who is a retired test pilot for an aircraft
manufacturer.

Well, there's a simple opportunity...uh, solution...he Make him take you
flying first!

;
-c