COVID-19 Operational Considerations

The excess death rates over seasonal normal in all severely affected regions or countries ( eg UK, France, Italy, Spain, New York state) are enormous. Around doubled. These are real extra deaths with real extra funerals that can't be fake newsed away. From a new respiratory viral infection that, when severe, is clearly distinct from flu in its lung pathology. A few phone calls to funeral directors in the affected areas should clear up any doubts among the conspiracy theorists about the numbers. Or maybe the funeral directors are in on it too - spooky!

At 03:14 29 April 2020, wrote:
I understand in some places usual average death rate is down.
Attributed
t=
o less motor vehicle accidents, sadly probably also due to less people
gett=
ing medical care as medical mistakes are one of the top causes of
death in
=
Western countries. For evidence of hinkyness in overall corvid death
numbe=
rs look at the reported pneumonia death average and the recent
pneumonia
de=
ath average. My opinion is this is just a flu with flu like death rates
gi=
ve or take and all sorts of people are jumping up and down to push
various
=
agendas. None of which I care about, I just want to fly.

I take it you believe that the earth is flat, the Holocaust did not
happen,the Twin Towers were brought down by a demolition team from
the CIA and you can cure Covid 19 by injecting yourself with Dettol.
It's not so much the deaths, which are very sad, it's the number of
hospital beds, especially critical care beds which are being taken up
that is the real problem. If your health system gets overwhelmed then
it is not just Covid 19 patients in the dwang, it's all of us.
Please grow up or find a responsible adult to supervise you.

At 08:25 29 April 2020, Don Johnstone wrote:
At 03:14 29 April 2020, wrote:
I understand in some places usual average death rate is down.
Attributed
t=
o less motor vehicle accidents, sadly probably also due to less people
gett=
ing medical care as medical mistakes are one of the top causes of
death in
=
Western countries. For evidence of hinkyness in overall corvid death
numbe=
rs look at the reported pneumonia death average and the recent
pneumonia
de=
ath average. My opinion is this is just a flu with flu like death rates
gi=
ve or take and all sorts of people are jumping up and down to push
various
=
agendas. None of which I care about, I just want to fly.

I take it you believe that the earth is flat, the Holocaust did not
happen,the Twin Towers were brought down by a demolition team from
the CIA and you can cure Covid 19 by injecting yourself with Dettol.
It's not so much the deaths, which are very sad, it's the number of
hospital beds, especially critical care beds which are being taken up
that is the real problem. If your health system gets overwhelmed then
it is not just Covid 19 patients in the dwang, it's all of us.
Please grow up or find a responsible adult to supervise you.

Well Said Donny,

It is people like this that make America GRATE.

On Wednesday, 29 April 2020 04:15:01 UTC+1, wrote:
For evidence of hinkyness in overall corvid death numbers look at the ...

Corvid (sic)? Is this just autocorrect, or trying to minimise something by deliberately misspelling it?

I think the last time dead crows got in the news here was when some were hung up at the gate of a certain broadcaster and environmental campaigner.

Maybe folks here are responding with wildly different opinions of the virus because it looks wildly different in different places.

I'm with Gregg, If I look around here, the virus is annoying but not that bad. The weather is alternating waves of Monsoon and 7k lift which makes the lift days extraordinary for flying in the East. It seems reasonable to fly with precautions, but sadly I feel that that include staying local to the local field. Being 7k AGL in a good ship gives you pretty good range but not the same as cross country. I want to figure out how to do more.

That said, I do read the news and what is happening in NYC is way past just annoying. The quality of the statistics are low, but still indicate something bad. A flu season doesn't have rows of referigerator trucks, and overloaded funeral directors and reports from nurses returning from a battle zone. Something is happening with the virus there that fortunately hasn't happened here.

The blind men and the elephant didn't figure out what an elephant was by arguing that the part they experienced was the whole elephant.


I'm wondering if a place to start on the whole elephant is the 'model' with a key factor R. This bakes the transmission and lifecycle of the virus into a simple 1st order linear equation. Do we need another factor to capture the closeness of NYC subways and meat packing plants. Perhaps degree of exposure (E) to model the transmission separately from the lifecycle?

On Tuesday, April 28, 2020 at 11:15:01 PM UTC-4, wrote:
I understand in some places usual average death rate is down. Attributed to less motor vehicle accidents, sadly probably also due to less people getting medical care as medical mistakes are one of the top causes of death in Western countries. For evidence of hinkyness in overall corvid death numbers look at the reported pneumonia death average and the recent pneumonia death average. My opinion is this is just a flu with flu like death rates give or take and all sorts of people are jumping up and down to push various agendas. None of which I care about, I just want to fly.

The assertion that this is "just a flu, with flu like death rates" and thus does not merit action is an astoundingly naive and unsophisticated opinion.. Even if the death rate from Covid is as low as seasonal flu (and it might be) the difference in impact is that there is no immunity. So unlike the seasonal flu (where a large portion of the population has immunity either through recovering from the flu or immunization) Covid spreads unfettered through the population, killing 0.1% of 328 million (328,000 deaths over a few months). This condems large numbers of people to essentially dying in the streets since the medical system is overwhelmed. Maybe one of those in-the-street folks is you - you don't even get the opportunity to be successfully treated if you need it - welcome to the Middle Ages.

It is amazing to me how many people seem to see anything that imapacts what they personally want to do as some fifth column conspiracy. Maybe it is the result of watching too much X-Files as a youngster. Population density just by itself reduces the scope of personal liberty.

I want to go flying too; and I think now that we "scramed the reactor" to prevent a meltdown it is time to start finding out what valves we can reopen.. I also believe that soaring club activities are probably on the safer end of the spectrum (compared with concerts, sport events, crowded restuarants, etc.). However, the folks who have to decide what valves to open have a lot bigger fish to fry than our little sport. So I expect it will be a while till we get on the radar.

On Tuesday, April 28, 2020 at 8:06:20 PM UTC-4, Tango Eight wrote:
On Tuesday, April 28, 2020 at 4:37:47 PM UTC-4, wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJegzdhQjdI


Yes,not sure about those guys.

You know what? I agree. I didn't even get snookered, I snookered myself. Confirmation bias through and through.

Thanks for being nice about it.

T8

T8: Warning - this is entirely inappropriate behavior for RAS. Please apologise immediately.

T8: Warning - this is entirely inappropriate behavior for RAS. Please apologise immediately.

Right, it throws us off balance.

Instead of E for exposure, maybe the state variable should be I for Immune system.

If you get hit with one virus particle and your immune system gets to watch it grow to 1000, then that is a whole different state than if you get hit with 1000.

Interesting that an old EE would propose states of E, I, and R. Seems like Q should be next.

So...Â* Anyone who doesn't agree with you, regardless of the cause or
whether right or wrong, you attack?Â* Flat earth, GRATE, inject... I'm
surprised you haven't called him a racist yet.Â* Isn't that your usual
method of shutting up the opposition?

Sheesh...Â* Go back toÂ* your CNN or BBC.

On 4/29/2020 4:40 AM, R. Suppards wrote:
At 08:25 29 April 2020, Don Johnstone wrote:
At 03:14 29 April 2020, wrote:
I understand in some places usual average death rate is down.
Attributed
t=
o less motor vehicle accidents, sadly probably also due to less people
gett=
ing medical care as medical mistakes are one of the top causes of
death in
=
Western countries. For evidence of hinkyness in overall corvid death
numbe=
rs look at the reported pneumonia death average and the recent
pneumonia
de=
ath average. My opinion is this is just a flu with flu like death rates
gi=
ve or take and all sorts of people are jumping up and down to push
various
=
agendas. None of which I care about, I just want to fly.
I take it you believe that the earth is flat, the Holocaust did not
happen,the Twin Towers were brought down by a demolition team from
the CIA and you can cure Covid 19 by injecting yourself with Dettol.
It's not so much the deaths, which are very sad, it's the number of
hospital beds, especially critical care beds which are being taken up
that is the real problem. If your health system gets overwhelmed then
it is not just Covid 19 patients in the dwang, it's all of us.
Please grow up or find a responsible adult to supervise you.

Well Said Donny,

It is people like this that make America GRATE.



--
Dan, 5J

On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 11:01:24 AM UTC-4, John Godfrey (QT) wrote:
On Tuesday, April 28, 2020 at 11:15:01 PM UTC-4, wrote:
I understand in some places usual average death rate is down. Attributed to less motor vehicle accidents, sadly probably also due to less people getting medical care as medical mistakes are one of the top causes of death in Western countries. For evidence of hinkyness in overall corvid death numbers look at the reported pneumonia death average and the recent pneumonia death average. My opinion is this is just a flu with flu like death rates give or take and all sorts of people are jumping up and down to push various agendas. None of which I care about, I just want to fly.

The assertion that this is "just a flu, with flu like death rates" and thus does not merit action is an astoundingly naive and unsophisticated opinion. Even if the death rate from Covid is as low as seasonal flu (and it might be) the difference in impact is that there is no immunity...
If there is no immunity then a vaccine won't work and we might as well get on with the dying.