Solar storms spell trouble for GPS

Garner Ted Armstrong and the Worldwide Church of God predicted all
sorts of things that never came true. Thing is, his disiples dont care
that he was wrong. They just edited all that out and kept on
preachin'...

But a properly trained pilot and his passengers are
dependent on a perfect GPS, VOR or Lycoming engine.



"Larry Dighera" wrote in message
...
| On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 17:49:46 -0500, "Jim Macklin"
| wrote in
| :
|
|
| There a post about the age of GPS, I just pointed out
that
| it was commercially available and used in 1986. Our news
| servers had some problems, your post was what I had
visible.
|
| Ah, I see. And your point is that GPS has been around a
long time,
| and you have heard no mention of anomalous behavior due to
solar
| storms. But if you look at the information in some of the
links I
| posted, you'll find that those who are intimately involved
with GPS
| operations have observed significant errors in various
locations as a
| result of changes in the ionosphere such as convective
plasma
| currents, etc.
|
| I don't recall seeing any thing I wrote that should have
| insulted you.
|
| I wasn't insulted; confused.

One point, any proper weather briefing will determine where
and how far VFR conditions exist. Did that 30 years ago.
If you don't have any more than a compass you can find North
Dakota or Texas from Chicago or Atlanta. Today, even a $100
GPS will steer you pretty well ands aircraft walkie-talkies
are common, not so 30 years ago. But even without GPS or
radar, I could find a safe place to land.



"Larry Dighera" wrote in message
...
| On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 17:54:17 -0500, "Jim Macklin"
| wrote in
| :
|
| The Earth compass, was powered by a windmill, just as
many
| crop dusters power their spray pumps, and similarly to
using
| a venturi to power gyros, if you're flying you have
power.
| Using a retractable generator is even part of the modern
jet
| airliner.
|
| A propeller turned an armature, but there were no field
coils; the
| Earth's magnetic field played that role; thus no battery,
nor
| generator, nor venturi, nor vacuum pump nor any other
power source was
| required to operate it, unlike a slaved compass..
|
| Yes, when your G1000 dies, you will have very limited
| navigation or even communication options.
|
| If you're in IMC at the time of such a failure, you're
only landing
| option will be a GCA approach, unless you have portable
Nav equipment.
|
| Check out the
| difference between a Beech Baron or Bonanza G36/G58 and a
| Cessna NAV III on the manual section at Garmin. com
|
| What will I find?

But the fishermen didn't answer.



"cjcampbell" wrote in
message
ps.com...
|
| Jim Macklin wrote:
| BFD, All those radios are called Aids to navigation for
a
| reason, they are conveniences. CAL found Paris with
just a
| compass and a chart.
|
| Well, he did have to ask directions.
|

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 11:12:07 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote:

http://www.newscientisttech.com/chan...e-for-gps.html
Solar storms spell trouble for GPS

SOLAR flares can drown out GPS signals with potentially serious
consequences for airlines, emergency services, and anyone relying on
satellite navigation.


As almost any pilot can tell you, this is old news.

It turns out these bursts of charged particles, which produce auroras
and geomagnetic storms, also generate radio waves in the 1.2 and
1.6-gigahertz bands used by GPS.

How was such a clash missed? Because GPS receivers only became common

It wasn't except for those who weren't looking. Why do you supposed
the government decided we needed to keep a non satellite based backup
system operational.

during a period of low solar activity. By 2011 solar flares will reach
the peak of their cycle and receivers will likely fail. Or so
Alessandro Cerruti of Cornell University, New York, told a meeting of
the Institute of Navigation in Fort Worth, Texas, last week. The only
solution would be to redesign GPS receivers or satellites, which may
not be practical, says Cerruti.

From issue 2572 of New Scientist magazine, 07 October 2006, page 27
Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 17:14:05 -0700, Bob Fry
wrote:

"RR" == Ross Richardson writes:
RR What this program stated and I had read it elsewhere, is the
RR magnetic core within the earth had flipped every 200K to 700K
RR years. Geologist know how to figure this out from core
RR samples.

Not from core samples. We've come nowhere near the earth's core.
Rather, from now-solid rock that was previously molten and iron
particles free to align to the earth's magnetic field; get enough of
those samples which were molten at different geologic periods and you
can figure out the history of the earth's magnetic field.

They've done a lot of studying along the mid Atlantic ridge.

The reversals are laid out in a series of roughly parallel lines.




Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 11:12:07 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote:

http://www.newscientisttech.com/chan...e-for-gps.html
Solar storms spell trouble for GPS

I wonder where Cerutti has been for the last few years. The military
has talked about it, hell, it's even been discussed on here.


SOLAR flares can drown out GPS signals with potentially serious
consequences for airlines, emergency services, and anyone relying on
satellite navigation.

It turns out these bursts of charged particles, which produce auroras
and geomagnetic storms, also generate radio waves in the 1.2 and
1.6-gigahertz bands used by GPS.

How was such a clash missed? Because GPS receivers only became common

It wasn't, at least not by those paying attention.
Just a bit over two years ago we had some of the strongest solar
flares on record. Not *the* strongest, but that was because they
pretty much missed us. The aurora was visible all the way to Mexico
and there have been at least two instances of interruptions to GPS in
the last five years.

during a period of low solar activity. By 2011 solar flares will reach
the peak of their cycle and receivers will likely fail. Or so
Alessandro Cerruti of Cornell University, New York, told a meeting of

It's happened twice already. How come he didn't know.

the Institute of Navigation in Fort Worth, Texas, last week. The only
solution would be to redesign GPS receivers or satellites, which may

If you blanket a frequency used by a system with signals stronger than
the system generates, or strong enough to block the receivers,
redesigning them is not going to help unless you move the operational
frequency to something that is not interfered with by anything.
Maybe they could 2.4 Gigs:-))


not be practical, says Cerruti.

As with past interruptions they only lasted a few hours. Of course if
we ended up with a coronal mass ejection in the record class pointed
straight at us we might lose more than a few satellites, hardened or
not. This has also been discussed concerning the safety of
astronauts, but they *think* they'd be safe in the most heavily
shielded parts of the space station.

From issue 2572 of New Scientist magazine, 07 October 2006, page 27

I have talked to stations on nearly every continent using signals
reflected off the Ionosphere during an aurora. OTOH I have seen aurora
so strong instead of reflecting signals it absorbed them. That was
just about two years ago. When it gets that strong few signals make
it through. I think that one created about a two hour outage.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 17:46:22 -0500, "Jim Macklin"
wrote:

Or it just does like the AC current in the power grid and
switch to the other side of the power curve. The actual
material doesn't have to move, the energy to flip over
billions of tons of spinning matter isn't there. But as an
A/C generator, it is just a question of electrons.

A while back Scientific American devoted a lot of space to this. There
was also a program on it at least a year ago.

Apparently the core is not a uniform spinning mass. There are
convection currents up and down as well as the circulating currents we
normally think of. Depending on the orientation, the flow across the
top may be N,S, E, W, or some where in between. It appears the
reversals are not a singular event, but may happen in stages and at
different times through out the overall reversal. I don't think they
are even sure of how these events may even interact...if they do.

I've not seen any information on the total time expected for a
complete reversal to happen. Indications (some isolated events that
appear to be reversals) are that we are starting into or could be well
into a change. Does it take 10 years, 100 years, or a 1000 years once
its started? I don't think any one knows enough to even make a guess
except for those based on core samples which are again going to be
local. OTOH I believe they are pretty well documented along the mid
Atlantic ridge which is probably the best accessible global record
that spans many millions of years. There they have done surveys using
magnetometers to get some pretty detailed maps along with a number of
core samples. http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/reversals.html

A comparable surface feature is the mid African rift valley where the
rift and active volcanoes can be seen. That is one wide valley, but
the eastern walls are virtually straight up. I've never seen the
western side..

Now stop and think... The New Madrid fault lies atop a "failed rift"
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/...php#february_7
between St Louis and Memphis. What if it decided to start opening
again? Even a major quake along that fault would be something to
behold. They figure if it lets go like it did back in 1812 there
would be substantial damage clear up into lower Michigan and it'd
shake the skyscrapers in NY and NJ. These have not been single events
but a series of large events over several months.






"Ross Richardson" wrote in message
...
| Jim Macklin wrote:
| The Earth is rotating and orbiting within a strong
magnetic
| field of the Sun, [not to mention the whole Universe].
|
| The magnetic pole is not located on the axis and as a
result
| the variation wanders. It appears that the Earth's
magnetic
| field is electromagnetic and AC.
|
| The Earth doesn't physically flip over, the phase angle
| flips.
|
|
|
| "Ross Richardson" wrote in message
| ...
| | Larry Dighera wrote:
| | On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 06:17:38 -0500, "Jim Macklin"
| | wrote in
| | :
| |
| |
| | BFD, All those radios are called Aids to navigation
for
| a
| | reason, they are conveniences.
| |
| |
| | Were you aware of the design flaw in GPS as
implemented?
| I just
| | thought it might be a good idea to provide the
| information to those
| | weren't.
| |
| | Of course, this issue makes no mention of solar mass
| ejections, that
| | can potentially knock out any satellite.
| |
| | It appears that we are (finally?) seeing some
| technological innovation
| | tickling down to the GA fleet, but I'm becoming
uneasy
| with the
| | apparent lack of robustness engineered in these
early
| systems.
| |
| |
| | CAL found Paris with just a compass and a chart.
| |
| | Yes. It was an Earth Inductor Compass*. I've never
| seen one of those
| | in any aircraft in which I've flown, let alone
piloted.
| |
| |
| | *
http://oldbeacon.com/beacon/earth_inductor_compass.htm
| |
| |
| | Did anybody see NOVA on PBS last night. The earth is
| overdue for a pole
| | reversal. According to the program, we are already
seeing
| issues towards
| | that. Interesting program.
| |
| | --
| |
| | Regards, Ross
| | C-172F 180HP
| | KSWI
|
|
| What this program stated and I had read it elsewhere, is
the magnetic
| core within the earth had flipped every 200K to 700K
years. Geologist
| know how to figure this out from core samples. They said
the last one
| was over 700K years ago. The north magnetic pole (as we
know it) flips
| to the south pole.
|
| --
|
| Regards, Ross
| C-172F 180HP
| KSWI

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 17:14:05 -0700, Bob Fry
wrote:

"RR" == Ross Richardson writes:
RR What this program stated and I had read it elsewhere, is the
RR magnetic core within the earth had flipped every 200K to 700K
RR years. Geologist know how to figure this out from core
RR samples.

Not from core samples. We've come nowhere near the earth's core.

Core samples as in core samples, but not samples from the core.
Core samples are just samples cut with a circular or pipe like drill
from which they remove the "core". Much like coring an apple.


Rather, from now-solid rock that was previously molten and iron
particles free to align to the earth's magnetic field; get enough of
those samples which were molten at different geologic periods and you
can figure out the history of the earth's magnetic field.
Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com

Fact is the more humans learn about geology, the more we
learn we don't know.



"Roger (K8RI)" wrote in message
...
| On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 17:46:22 -0500, "Jim Macklin"
| wrote:
|
| Or it just does like the AC current in the power grid and
| switch to the other side of the power curve. The actual
| material doesn't have to move, the energy to flip over
| billions of tons of spinning matter isn't there. But as
an
| A/C generator, it is just a question of electrons.
|
| A while back Scientific American devoted a lot of space to
this. There
| was also a program on it at least a year ago.
|
| Apparently the core is not a uniform spinning mass. There
are
| convection currents up and down as well as the circulating
currents we
| normally think of. Depending on the orientation, the flow
across the
| top may be N,S, E, W, or some where in between. It
appears the
| reversals are not a singular event, but may happen in
stages and at
| different times through out the overall reversal. I don't
think they
| are even sure of how these events may even interact...if
they do.
|
| I've not seen any information on the total time expected
for a
| complete reversal to happen. Indications (some isolated
events that
| appear to be reversals) are that we are starting into or
could be well
| into a change. Does it take 10 years, 100 years, or a 1000
years once
| its started? I don't think any one knows enough to even
make a guess
| except for those based on core samples which are again
going to be
| local. OTOH I believe they are pretty well documented
along the mid
| Atlantic ridge which is probably the best accessible
global record
| that spans many millions of years. There they have done
surveys using
| magnetometers to get some pretty detailed maps along with
a number of
| core samples. http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/reversals.html
|
| A comparable surface feature is the mid African rift
valley where the
| rift and active volcanoes can be seen. That is one wide
valley, but
| the eastern walls are virtually straight up. I've never
seen the
| western side..
|
| Now stop and think... The New Madrid fault lies atop a
"failed rift"
|
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/...php#february_7
| between St Louis and Memphis. What if it decided to start
opening
| again? Even a major quake along that fault would be
something to
| behold. They figure if it lets go like it did back in
1812 there
| would be substantial damage clear up into lower Michigan
and it'd
| shake the skyscrapers in NY and NJ. These have not been
single events
| but a series of large events over several months.
|
|
|
|
|
|
| "Ross Richardson" wrote in message
| ...
| | Jim Macklin wrote:
| | The Earth is rotating and orbiting within a strong
| magnetic
| | field of the Sun, [not to mention the whole
Universe].
| |
| | The magnetic pole is not located on the axis and as a
| result
| | the variation wanders. It appears that the Earth's
| magnetic
| | field is electromagnetic and AC.
| |
| | The Earth doesn't physically flip over, the phase
angle
| | flips.
| |
| |
| |
| | "Ross Richardson" wrote in
message
| | ...
| | | Larry Dighera wrote:
| | | On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 06:17:38 -0500, "Jim Macklin"
| | | wrote in
| | | :
| | |
| | |
| | | BFD, All those radios are called Aids to
navigation
| for
| | a
| | | reason, they are conveniences.
| | |
| | |
| | | Were you aware of the design flaw in GPS as
| implemented?
| | I just
| | | thought it might be a good idea to provide the
| | information to those
| | | weren't.
| | |
| | | Of course, this issue makes no mention of solar
mass
| | ejections, that
| | | can potentially knock out any satellite.
| | |
| | | It appears that we are (finally?) seeing some
| | technological innovation
| | | tickling down to the GA fleet, but I'm becoming
| uneasy
| | with the
| | | apparent lack of robustness engineered in these
| early
| | systems.
| | |
| | |
| | | CAL found Paris with just a compass and a chart.
| | |
| | | Yes. It was an Earth Inductor Compass*. I've
never
| | seen one of those
| | | in any aircraft in which I've flown, let alone
| piloted.
| | |
| | |
| | | *
| http://oldbeacon.com/beacon/earth_inductor_compass.htm
| | |
| | |
| | | Did anybody see NOVA on PBS last night. The earth
is
| | overdue for a pole
| | | reversal. According to the program, we are already
| seeing
| | issues towards
| | | that. Interesting program.
| | |
| | | --
| | |
| | | Regards, Ross
| | | C-172F 180HP
| | | KSWI
| |
| |
| | What this program stated and I had read it elsewhere,
is
| the magnetic
| | core within the earth had flipped every 200K to 700K
| years. Geologist
| | know how to figure this out from core samples. They
said
| the last one
| | was over 700K years ago. The north magnetic pole (as we
| know it) flips
| | to the south pole.
| |
| | --
| |
| | Regards, Ross
| | C-172F 180HP
| | KSWI
|
| Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
| (N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
| www.rogerhalstead.com