3 lives lost

Wow! Good research. I've got a hard copy of it around here somewhere,
but after three moves, only God knows *where* around here.

You will find that the conditions used in the study were actually a
little extreme; the test aircraft was a high-perf retract, (Bonanza, i
think), and the did not give them an AI. The theory was to develop a
survival procedure that would work in any airplane, including those not
equipped with an AI.

I suspect that if the experiment were repeated using a 172 with an AI
you would get better results--but not that much better, maybe a 30%
survival rate rather than 0%. However, those results would, I think,
be unrealistically optimistic; the uncontrolled variable is the stress
factor. A private pilot in a study, under the hood, in VMC, with an
instructor next to him knows that if he really screws it up the worst
that is going to happen is he 'fails' the test. His life is not really
at risk, and he knows it.

Put that same private pilot in a 172, solo, or with non-pilot
passengers, in IMC, with a little turbulence and I think the stress
level will be *enormous.* If you could do a study where the pilot was
convinced that it was real IMC, with real rocks below, no instructor,
and no help available, then you might see some results that have
validity.

Listen to the guy's voice on the 17 ways tape and tell me what you
think.

Gene

I know I am getting in on this thread a little late.

I had read that when they took off, visibility was 4 miles, then
deteriorated to 1/2 mile due to fog. So they did not take off into IMC,
rather, so-so weather changed very quickly.

Yes, every pilot should read about incidents like this one. How would you
have reacted? What could have been done differently to prevent the
situation? Things to take to heart and consider.

Hi Gene

I get a little intense over this issue, because I have been doing this
for 17 plus years and have watched *so many* repetitions of this same
accident.

It is so sad that we as pilots don't learn from the mistakes of those
that went before. We have to keep making them again and again


I actually had an ex student who managed to run out of gas once and
land (successfully) in a farmers field (no damage, flew it out). Funny
thing was, he hid from me for *months.* He was much more afraid of
*me* finding out than if the FAA did!

That's a great story - and he should have been scared.
We had one at our flying school, signed out for solo, went to the side
gate and let 2 friends in, and off they went. Over a large lake he ran
out of gas. Could have made the shore but elected to land on the lake.
His passengers got out and he drowned.
A friend of mine bought the wreck as is where is.
Made his own barge to raise it, got it to shore and the right tank was
full of gas - fuel was on left!

Keep preaching the message - because people just don't get it - what
does it take?

Best regards

Tony





--

Tony Roberts
PP-ASEL
VFR OTT
Night
Cessna 172H C-GICE

snipped

The FARs are 'written in blood;' for every paragraph in there, somebody
died to prove to us we needed that rule. I wish that no one will ever
again have to give their life to teach us something; but they do it
anyway.

I just wish that if someone insists on making the ultimate sacrifice to
teach us something, would they please try at least to pick something we
don't already know?

Sincerely,

Gene Hudson
CFI-IA, MEI, ASC


Thanks for the considered & helpful words in this thread by you, Dudley and
others.

I note that most of the responders are suggesting flight into
IMC/disorientation as the probable cause of the loss of control. Based on
the metars showing deteriorating trends of vis & dp spread I would tend to
agree this is a probable scenario but
I would like to relate an experience which may or may not have any relevance
to this crash (I cannot bring myself to call it an accident)

I drove from Banff to Springbank(Calgary) on a winter morning under a
blindingly clear Alberta sky and was surprised to see the airport lying in a
thin veil of ground fog. Approaching from the west and looking down to the
airport I could see that the fog was very thin and no more than 100 ft
thick. Driving up to the school it was obvious that it was below VFR but
looked like it would clear later after the sun got a little higher and
warmed things up. The ATIS noted expected equal temp/dp. Horizontal vis
was minimal and very grey but looking up the sky was clear blue.

It was one of those sucker traps where it was easy to think that with my
instrument training (but not rating) I would be able to easily take off and
climb s&l through the thin fog to the clear sky above and that the fog would
have long burned off by the time of return for landing. My training and
instinct for self preservation stopped me from giving this any serious
consideration but I did perform a short experiment.

I started an aircraft engine and allowed it to idle @ 8-900 rpm for the same
time as it would have taken to reach the run-up bay, I then performed a
standard run-up @ 1800 rpm then shutdown. I felt that this duplicated the
conditions that would exist if attempting to fly.

After shutdown I examined the prop and found that the inner half of the prop
was covered with very thick ice and with ridges as much as 3/8 in. thick,
the outer prop showed thinner icing. I consider it probable that any
attempt to take off would have resulted in a failure to climb out of ground
effect and a likely a blind landing in the soup off the end of the runway.
Since the ice would have melted by the time any investigators arrived it
would probably be attributed to the engine failing to develop sufficient
power, perhaps due to carb icing which would also likely have occurred but
also melted.

We took a Polaroid of the prop which severed as a cautionary notice on the
bulletin board for that season.

After some ground study and hangar flying the fog burned off and I had a
cavok day, proving again the old adage about bad weather, "IT WILL PASS"
The associated thought is that if you crash due to bad weather, your
funeral will be held on a sunny day.

Blue skies and best wishes to all
diver driver
CPL & student of flight

"Terry" writes:

Hi Bob...

I made the remark about Jean flying for 30 minutes or so
each time she flew was to make the point that she was "72 years
young"" and ONLY flew for pleasure.

....

Point taken. And like many others, please accept my sincere sorrow
and condolences for all involved. No matter our speculation about the
causes or how to prevent accidents, this one occured, at great loss to
those involved, and at some loss to all of us.

Bob

"Terry" wrote in message news:T9qBd.10480

From the hangar the "thug" was heard but you could not see the
airplane lying upside down about 1/4 mile away.

How does something like this happen?

Terry, thank you for posting this for all of us. Hopefully each pilot here
will take it to heart and apply it as a learning experience. Having said
that, even if you're an eyewitness it's probably best to wait for the NTSB
report to find out what happened.

I had a similar experience with Jeff Ethell. We'd just finished filming the
P-38 segment of his series and getting ready to do the next segment when he
went out for a veterans reunion in a P-38 and crashed away from the field.
His father, who flew 38s in combat, was at the field reported that Jeff came
over with an engine out and was flying too slow for that condition.

Turns out he had a problem with a worn fuel selector detent (he -points out
the very problem- in the video) which caused starvation of one engine, and
ended up in a flat spin trying to bring it home. People speculated as to
the cause right up until the NTSB determination, and I don't recall anybody
correctly identifying the problem until then.

Why somebody would take off into obvious IMC is even more confusing. Please
keep us posted.

-chris gattman
pp-asel-ia

"tony roberts" wrote in message news:nospam-

Keep preaching the message - because people just don't get it - what
does it take?

Just keep preaching the message. Maybe everybody won't get it, but there's
quite a few readers here thinking about it today.

-c

gatt ) wrote:

"tony roberts" wrote in message news:nospam-

Keep preaching the message - because people just don't get it - what
does it take?

Just keep preaching the message. Maybe everybody won't get it, but there's
quite a few readers here thinking about it today.

I just can't stop thinking not only about the loss experienced by that
young girl's family, but also about the larger scale damage to general
aviation's reputation. Both of those make me very angry because, once
again, signs indicate that this was totally preventable.



--
Peter

wrote in message
oups.com...
JFK Jr.

I had a simple answer: "If he'd been my student he wouldn't be dead
now and we wouldn't be having this converstation."


Gene,

With all due respect to your no-doubt considerable instructing prowess, some
people are just too stupid to save themselves. I agree that the conditions
were such that he should have been able to hand-fly it out, let alone click
the autopilot on the minute things got touchy, but IMHO the real problem
happened when he took off. If you know how to train a Kennedy to not take
idiotic risks you should become a therapist and open an office in LA.

-cwk.

----- Original Message -----
From: "gatt"
Newsgroups: rec.aviation.owning,rec.aviation.student
Sent: Monday, January 03, 2005 12:40
Subject: 3 lives lost



Why somebody would take off into obvious IMC is even more confusing.
Please
keep us posted.

-chris gattman
pp-asel-ia



Please see previous post.

http://www.bucyrusonline.com/article...003/000362.htm