Glider accident while filming commercial in 2011. NTSB Report updated

On Sunday, June 23, 2013 4:30:40 PM UTC-4, Bill D wrote:
On Sunday, June 23, 2013 1:17:17 PM UTC-6, Terry Walsh wrote:
Bill,

This 'http://www.gliding.co.uk/bgainfo/documents/safewinchguidance.pdf' is
a link to the BGA web site which breaks down winch accidents from 1974 to
2009, into Fatal/serious and total.

From this I think that you can say that the total number of launches in
that period was 9503000 and there were 110 fatal and serious injury
accidents. That equates to a rate of 1 in 86390.

Since then the UK have campaigned successfully to reduce these numbers and
they are now substantially lower.

Terry Walsh


Terry, thanks for the link but I've had this document for a long time. It says, quote: "The average frequency of winch accidents [in the UK] is 1 in every 13,000 launches." My figures for 2011 show 1 accident every 16,000 launches so you're doing better but nowhere near as good as the Germans at 1 every 180,000 launches.

What I sincerely hope happens is this will provide an incentive to improve the UK winch safety situation. The really, REALLY good news from the German data is something CAN be done.

There's an easy way to settle the dispute between Bill and Terry - look at the insurance rates for comparable gliders in Germany and the UK. If the UK rates are 10x the German rates, Bill is right. If the rates are the same, either Bill is wrong or the Germans are being cheated.

-John, Q3

I had always been led to believe that winch launching was about twice as risky as aero-tow and there were reports in the 1980s and 1990s that I think supported this. The recent UK reported winch accident rate is pretty close to double the US aero-tow accident rate, so that gives general support to this premise.

While I am prepared to believe that the Germans are better at it than the rest of the world, an accident rate nearly 15 times lower just doesn't smell right! Maybe someone misplaced a decimal point - it wouldn't be the first time!

Mike

On Sunday, June 23, 2013 6:42:19 PM UTC-6, waremark wrote:
The issue here is whether for the UK you are dealing with all incidents, whereas for Germany you are looking only at more serious ones. So the UK used to have more apples than the Germans had oranges. As it happens the UK recognised the scope for improvement a few years ago and has radically reduced the number of serious winch accidents. The pro-active accident reduction focus here has recently moved on to avoidance of aerotow tug upsets.


Not true. The Germans are very diligent and report MORE accidents. In any event, it wouldn't make much difference if the number of German accidents was doubled or even quadrupled, the numbers would still tell the same story..

Yes, you have improved but you have a ways to go and denial won't help.

On Sunday, June 23, 2013 7:03:11 PM UTC-6, Mike the Strike wrote:
I had always been led to believe that winch launching was about twice as risky as aero-tow and there were reports in the 1980s and 1990s that I think supported this. The recent UK reported winch accident rate is pretty close to double the US aero-tow accident rate, so that gives general support to this premise.



While I am prepared to believe that the Germans are better at it than the rest of the world, an accident rate nearly 15 times lower just doesn't smell right! Maybe someone misplaced a decimal point - it wouldn't be the first time!



Mike



Mike, if you or anybody really doubts this, download the data yourself and try to come up with a different story. It's public data.

Yes, you and I were both led to believe winch launch was more dangerous than aero tow but we were seriously misled. The idea came about because the easiest data to get was from the UK and, unfortunately, their winch launch operations really are WAY more dangerous than aero tow. The assumption was then made the UK was typical when it isn't.

German data requires translation so was ignored. Ulrich Newmann helped me find the data on the BFU site and translate it. Just to answer you doubters I had it downloaded and translated by two people. Then, I went on to get similar data from the rest of the Eurozone countries finding the numbers are essentially the same as Germany.

I understand the Brits are angry to be called out on this but numbers are numbers and they don't lie. Hopefully, it will get them to fix the problem.

I must have missed the subject change. I don't believe this is a winch/auto-tow vs. AERO tow discussion. With 20/20 hindsight, does attempting an auto tow on a short, narrow runway surrounded by trees, in a 20 meter glider, with a 71 meter rope, sound like a scenario likely to generate a happy ending?

On 23/06/2013 18:13, Bill D wrote:
On Sunday, June 23, 2013 10:19:29 AM UTC-6, B4soaring wrote:

That is simply impossible. There are nowhere near enough fatal or

serious injury accidents across the whole of BGA gliding, never mind

winch operations, to come up with those figures.



Ed

Read Sailplane and Gliding.


Indded.

Count the number of fatal & serious injury accidents & there are nowhere
near enough to give the accident rate that you quote. Not for gliding as
a whole & certainly not for winch operations only.

The AAIB investigate all fatal accidents (including gliding) & publish

their reports.


The BGA, as a regulator, encourages clubs to report anything &

everything - BGA figures will include events too trivial to report to an

official government body.



Ed

Yeah? Link me to the AAIB site with the glider accidents.

?????

AAIB website, go the publications page, enter glider as a keyword & hit
the search button. Really not that difficult.

On Sunday, June 23, 2013 6:21:56 AM UTC-7, Bill D wrote:
On Sunday, June 23, 2013 3:35:00 AM UTC-6, Don Johnstone wrote:

At 02:32 23 June 2013, Bill D wrote:







No, they are not. The equivalent of the BFU is the AAIB - if you wish



to



make comparisons you should compare the BFU statistics with the AAIB



figures.



_____________________







What!!? The AAIB doesn't publish glider accident statistics - they leave



that to the BGA. I used the BGA numbers for 2011.







ps an earlier post of yours refers to the "German LBU"; I'm aware of the







LBA, I know of the BFU but your reference to the "German LBU" is



puzzling.







The German LBA is their FAA equivalent. The BFU is the NTSB/AAIB



equivalent. The "LBU" was a typo.







The numbers I used are available for anybody to read and analyze. The



differences are so huge, there's no way to come up with a different



result.



If you disagree, go read them and do your own analysis.







Sorry Bill but your statistics are seriously flawed, In the UK the Air



Cadet organisation carry out nearly 50% of the total winch launches in the



UK in any year. The Air Cadets have not had a fatal or serious injury from



a failed winch launch accident since 1963 and probably before that.



The accidents/incidents reported by the BGA far exceed what would normally



be recorded by a national government source.



You will see that minor crime has decreased in the UK over the years if you



look at statistics. What the statistics do not tell you is that people have



stopped reporting minor crime so of course it has reduced. Same thing



applies to AAIB statistics, they do not record all the minor stuff that the



BGA do.





Don, I used only the BGA numbers. I did not use any AAIB numbers since none are available. I stand by my results until the BGA supplies different numbers. Note carefully that I used the most favorable interpretation for the UK and digging deeper will most likely make things look worse.



For example, the BGA numbers reported were obviously restricted to fatal or serious injury accidents whereas the German BFU and the NTSB reported all of them so the real situation is actually worse for the UK than it appears. I have numbers supporting that contention but I chose not to publish them.



Even giving the UK the benefit of the doubt, the results say the Germans are more than 10 times safer than the Brits on winch launch and the Germans are 7 - 8 times safer on winch launch than US is with aero tow. Play with the numbers if you want, but it's very, very doubtful you can overcome or explain away differences that big.



The solution is fixing the safety problem, not attacking the numbers. I'd start by finding out what the Germans are doing right.

It is when the differences are so big that it is obvious that the statistics is flawed. Show me that Germans have 10 times less fatal car accidents than UK and maybe I will believe your statistics. Claiming that winch launch is 7-8 times safer than US aerotows is ridiculous. Winch launch is at best almost as safe as aerotows when done with all possible precautions. It is far less forgiving for errors. It's main advantage is with cost and turnaround time, not with safety.

Ramy

At 06:33 24 June 2013, Ramy wrote:

Winch launch is at best
almost as safe as aerotows when done with all possible precautions. It is
far less forgiving for errors. It's main advantage is with cost and
turnaround time, not with safety.

Ramy


That's simply your opinion.
My opinion is that *with proper training* winch launching is inherently
safer than Aerotow.

If something goes wrong then pilot should have option to land ahead or
safely go around. Is same true of aerotow where you fly.

If pilot puts themself in position where if something goes wrong they don't
have these options *then they haven't been properly trained*

This is why I was interested in how much winching / autotow pilot of DG1000
had done

PF

Hi Ramy

That is a controversial position to take.
My understanding and experience is the opposite - winch launch is safer
than aerotow.
I think the safety aspect is partly location, and largely the operating
procedures in either case. Winches are certainly a lot less sensitive to
poor maintenance...

Bruce
--
Bruce Greeff
T59D #1771