How Have Our Soaring Vendors Fared?

On Sunday, January 10, 2021 at 5:02:41 PM UTC-8, Gregg Ballou wrote:
On Sunday, January 10, 2021 at 1:46:05 AM UTC-5, wrote:
It's my understanding that there are now several rapid tests available that generate results in less than an hour, can be self-administered and have sensitivity of 95-98% and selectivity of 97-100% (false negative of 5% and false positive of 3%). Obviously you'd want to set up testing such that there is no cross-exposure of pilots, staff, etc. prior to getting a test result. You could give out little green "good to go" badges to everyone with a negative test. Seems like unless we can get everyone vaccinated, this is the main method available to provide higher confidence to everyone involved. A mixed combination of vaccinations and testing is a likely outcome given the pace of vaccinations and the age of pilots (older with higher priority to get a stick), volunteers, etc. With the new more infectious strain now circulating in the US it seems like some extra care would be in order. Early season contests are likely to face more concerns than later, but it's really too early to forecast much.

Things are still very much in flux, but at least the trajectory on vaccines and testing - if not hospitalizations - are headed in a positive direction.

Andy Blackburn
9B
As I understand the latest claims the vaccine does not prevent the vaccinated from getting or spreading covid just lessens their personal symptoms. Launching a fleet of vaccinated pilots is still potentially sending out angels of death upon the world.

Cite your source(s) - if you have any reliable ones.

Tom

How could you guys not have seen these claims? If you want other sources search, it is part of the current conventional wisdom on covid. And if you believe the current conventional wisdom on covid then isn't recreational flying immoral?
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/08/healt...ess/index.html
Health officials from Dr. Anthony Fauci on down are cautioning people that no one can dump the the face masks and social distancing behavior just because they've been vaccinated.
Why a Covid-19 vaccine doesn't mean that you can stop wearing a mask
Why a Covid-19 vaccine doesn't mean that you can stop wearing a mask
That's because even people who are themselves immune to the virus might be exposed to it and transmit it to others. It can grow in the nose, says Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
"It's possible that someone could get the vaccine but could still be an asymptomatic carrier," said CNN Medical Analyst Dr. Leana Wen, an emergency physician. "They may not show symptoms, but they have the virus in their nasal passageway so that if they're speaking, breathing, sneezing and so on, they can still transmit it to others."

On 1/11/21 1:33 PM, Gregg Ballou wrote:
How could you guys not have seen these claims? If you want other sources search, it is part of the current conventional wisdom on covid. And if you believe the current conventional wisdom on covid then isn't recreational flying immoral?

I open my hangar unaided, move my aircraft outside, fly it, return, and
put it away. I may fuel it up at a self-service pump.

Explain to me how that is "immoral".

--
Dan
5J

On Monday, January 11, 2021 at 1:33:29 PM UTC-7, Gregg Ballou wrote:
How could you guys not have seen these claims? If you want other sources search, it is part of the current conventional wisdom on covid. And if you believe the current conventional wisdom on covid then isn't recreational flying immoral?
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/08/healt...ess/index.html
Health officials from Dr. Anthony Fauci on down are cautioning people that no one can dump the the face masks and social distancing behavior just because they've been vaccinated.
Why a Covid-19 vaccine doesn't mean that you can stop wearing a mask
Why a Covid-19 vaccine doesn't mean that you can stop wearing a mask
That's because even people who are themselves immune to the virus might be exposed to it and transmit it to others. It can grow in the nose, says Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
"It's possible that someone could get the vaccine but could still be an asymptomatic carrier," said CNN Medical Analyst Dr. Leana Wen, an emergency physician. "They may not show symptoms, but they have the virus in their nasal passageway so that if they're speaking, breathing, sneezing and so on, they can still transmit it to others."


Be careful what you read on the internet. When you contract a viral infection, there is a period of time between when you are exposed, and when you start making virus particles that you can spread. This is call the incubation period. Some viruses you can spread before you develop symptoms (like COVID-19). Once your body is exposed to the virus, it takes parts of the virus and makes antibodies to those parts to help it fight the infection. This takes time, and before you are able to recover from it, you have spread virus particles around and infected others.

However, if you have been vaccinated, the antibodies are already present in your body before you are exposed to the virus. When you become exposed to the virus, your antibodies jump on the virus and help your immune system destroy the virus BEFORE it has the chance to start replicating. As a result, you do not make new virus particles and are unable to infect other people. You also do not get the infection. You may feel a little sick during this process, as it results in an activation of your immune system and all the hormones involved (cytokines) are responsible for why you feel sick. But the virus is stopped before it can be spread. That's why vaccines work.

Now if your immune system does not mount a satisfactory response to the vaccination, then you may not have sufficient immunity to drive it off. This is one of the reasons the COVID-19 vaccines are a 2-part series--to boost the response and improve the likelihood of successfully preventing infection..

There are some people who even after the two part vaccination, still will become infected and are able to transmit the virus. No vaccination is 100% reliable. Some people will become "asymptomatic carriers", as you point out, but these are by far the minority of those that have been vaccinated. It is another example of CNN taking things out of context and blowing them out of proportion in order to stimulate ratings and spread fear among the public. While we are still rolling out the vaccine, where most people have not been vaccinated yet, it makes sense to continue to wear the face mask to prevent the spread, even by those vaccinated. However, after most of the population has been vaccinated, there will be very little danger to the general public, unless they have not been vaccinated. This is all assuming that the virus does not mutate to a strain resistant to the current vaccinations.

On Monday, January 11, 2021 at 12:33:29 PM UTC-8, Gregg Ballou wrote:
How could you guys not have seen these claims? If you want other sources search, it is part of the current conventional wisdom on covid. And if you believe the current conventional wisdom on covid then isn't recreational flying immoral?
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/08/healt...ess/index.html
Health officials from Dr. Anthony Fauci on down are cautioning people that no one can dump the the face masks and social distancing behavior just because they've been vaccinated.
Why a Covid-19 vaccine doesn't mean that you can stop wearing a mask
Why a Covid-19 vaccine doesn't mean that you can stop wearing a mask
That's because even people who are themselves immune to the virus might be exposed to it and transmit it to others. It can grow in the nose, says Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
"It's possible that someone could get the vaccine but could still be an asymptomatic carrier," said CNN Medical Analyst Dr. Leana Wen, an emergency physician. "They may not show symptoms, but they have the virus in their nasal passageway so that if they're speaking, breathing, sneezing and so on, they can still transmit it to others."

Sorry, those AREN'T credible sources. We know Fauci has lied to us in the past, which destroyed his credibility. An "analyst" is just giving their personal opinion - note that she used the word "may" which IS NOT definitive. I am looking for some institution such as John Hopkins, that has officially studied the issue.

Tom

On Sunday, January 10, 2021 at 5:02:41 PM UTC-8, Gregg Ballou wrote:
On Sunday, January 10, 2021 at 1:46:05 AM UTC-5, wrote:
It's my understanding that there are now several rapid tests available that generate results in less than an hour, can be self-administered and have sensitivity of 95-98% and selectivity of 97-100% (false negative of 5% and false positive of 3%). Obviously you'd want to set up testing such that there is no cross-exposure of pilots, staff, etc. prior to getting a test result. You could give out little green "good to go" badges to everyone with a negative test. Seems like unless we can get everyone vaccinated, this is the main method available to provide higher confidence to everyone involved. A mixed combination of vaccinations and testing is a likely outcome given the pace of vaccinations and the age of pilots (older with higher priority to get a stick), volunteers, etc. With the new more infectious strain now circulating in the US it seems like some extra care would be in order. Early season contests are likely to face more concerns than later, but it's really too early to forecast much.

Things are still very much in flux, but at least the trajectory on vaccines and testing - if not hospitalizations - are headed in a positive direction.

Andy Blackburn
9B
As I understand the latest claims the vaccine does not prevent the vaccinated from getting or spreading covid just lessens their personal symptoms. Launching a fleet of vaccinated pilots is still potentially sending out angels of death upon the world.

I was just studying up on Moderna’s emergency authorization in USA (you can easily find on-line the authorization letter and the official FAQs sheet for recipients) and it is clear that they make no claims about the vaccinated person’s ability to transmit the virus. And indeed, of the ~15,000 who received the vaccine in the 60 day trial, a small number were subsequently infected (hence the 94% efficacy claim).

But the chief benefit of vaccination is apparently that none of them had a serious case. Interestingly, the efficacy rate in old people was lower (something like 86%, IIRC). In any event, the bottom line seems to be that, even for us old folks, the vaccine protects completely or at worst, results in a case with relatively mild symptoms. (Apparently the incidence of severe side effects is relatively low, but most recipients will have mild side effects for 1-3 days after each dose.)

But, it’s also clear that the trials done last year are very limited, and there are many unanswered questions, such as how long the immunity persists. The emergency authorization given for Moderna in December in USA is not “approval� from FDA is the usual sense. For some folks, the process itself will be an issue until more is known. To me, the risks seem reasonable & I’m scheduled for my first dose this week.

On Monday, January 11, 2021 at 2:05:45 PM UTC-8, Dan Marotta wrote:
On 1/11/21 1:33 PM, Gregg Ballou wrote:
How could you guys not have seen these claims? If you want other sources search, it is part of the current conventional wisdom on covid. And if you believe the current conventional wisdom on covid then isn't recreational flying immoral?
I open my hangar unaided, move my aircraft outside, fly it, return, and
put it away. I may fuel it up at a self-service pump.

Explain to me how that is "immoral".

--
Dan
5J
Really Dan? It is the Puritan ethic, it is immoral to have fun or enjoy oneself. All you actions should be to be as miserable as you can possibly be, just like me.

On 1/12/21 12:54 PM, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:
On Monday, January 11, 2021 at 2:05:45 PM UTC-8, Dan Marotta wrote:
On 1/11/21 1:33 PM, Gregg Ballou wrote:
How could you guys not have seen these claims? If you want other sources search, it is part of the current conventional wisdom on covid. And if you believe the current conventional wisdom on covid then isn't recreational flying immoral?
I open my hangar unaided, move my aircraft outside, fly it, return, and
put it away. I may fuel it up at a self-service pump.

Explain to me how that is "immoral".

--
Dan
5J
Really Dan? It is the Puritan ethic, it is immoral to have fun or enjoy oneself. All you actions should be to be as miserable as you can possibly be, just like me.


Oh! Then I'll just keep reading RAS.

--
Dan
5J

Talking about thread drift I guess you all have covid on or in your mind.

Sorry I don't have the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in stock yet.

Richard
www.craggyaero.com

On Tuesday, January 12, 2021 at 5:13:12 PM UTC-7, Richard Pfiffner wrote:
Talking about thread drift I guess you all have covid on or in your mind.

Sorry I don't have the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in stock yet.

Richard
www.craggyaero.com

Maybe we should wait for v2.1