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Are asking prices really as unrealistic as they look



 
 
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  #21  
Old September 8th 04, 04:00 AM
Jay Honeck
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You've seen it more than you think. It's a matter of priorities -
those who really know the airplane are too busy to clean it because
they have more important things to do.


That's a pretty gross generalization, but I'll admit it's not a black and
white issue.

However, in my experience it's usually safe to say that an aircraft that's
kept immaculate is going to sell for a higher price than one that isn't.

It's the same sort of phenomenon as selling a house with bad rain gutters.
Everyone knows that gutters don't cost much to replace -- but when given the
choice, most people will steer clear of the house with rusted out, dented
rain gutters.

Why? Because they know that what's on the outside often indicates what's on
the inside.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"


  #22  
Old September 8th 04, 02:56 PM
PaulH
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Some general rules that emerge from this discussion and another on a
200 hr engine failu
1. You can't tell anything about the reliability of an old airplane
by just looking at it.

2. You can't determine within a narrow range whether the asking price
is reasonable or not.

3. Although a lot hinges on the (undeterminable) integrity of the
seller, the seller doesn't always know what problems are hidden in the
aircraft.

4. A detailed pre-purchase inspection is essential by a shop that
knows the breed well - not just a $500 look and see.

5. The most expensive and hardest to find issues appear to revolve
around engines. If the OH is recent, part of the prepurchase should
involve a call to the rebuilder and review of the process by someone
who knows how a rebuild is supposed to be done.

6. Always assume that there is something wrong that you will have to
fix and allow for that in what you pay.
  #23  
Old September 8th 04, 03:06 PM
Michael
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"Jay Honeck" wrote
You've seen it more than you think. It's a matter of priorities -
those who really know the airplane are too busy to clean it because
they have more important things to do.


That's a pretty gross generalization, but I'll admit it's not a black and
white issue.


No, it's not black and white. Once in a while you will find an owner
who DOES know the airplane but just can't deal with bugs on the
leading edges - so he spends the time to put Rejex on them and wipe
them down while he lets the trim actuator he knows is too loose go
another year. It happens - but I doubt it's the norm.

However, in my experience it's usually safe to say that an aircraft that's
kept immaculate is going to sell for a higher price than one that isn't.


That's absolutely true - just not for the reasons you say.

It's the same sort of phenomenon as selling a house with bad rain gutters.
Everyone knows that gutters don't cost much to replace -- but when given the
choice, most people will steer clear of the house with rusted out, dented
rain gutters.

Why? Because they know that what's on the outside often indicates what's on
the inside.


No, that's not why. It's because most people don't know how to
evaluate the quality of wiring or plumbing or foundation structure
(the things that matter, and will cost you big if they go bad) - those
things require knowledge and experience. But EVERYONE can see that
the rain gutter is rusty.

Basically, the airplane (or house) that is pretty but mechanically
unsound will usually sell for a higher price than one that is not
pretty but mechanically sound - because most people don't know any
better.

You simply CAN'T judge a book by its cover. Properly evaluating the
conditions of an aircraft (or a house) takes actual knowledge and
experience. Surface appearance is not a valid indicator.

Michael
  #24  
Old September 8th 04, 03:29 PM
Jay Honeck
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You simply CAN'T judge a book by its cover. Properly evaluating the
conditions of an aircraft (or a house) takes actual knowledge and
experience. Surface appearance is not a valid indicator.


I agree with you that it takes knowledge to evaluate aircraft and homes.
(Which is why a pre-buy inspection -- of both -- by a qualified
professional, is essential.)

But I will stand by my statement that appearance matters. If a home-owner
doesn't care enough to keep the gutters functional and proper, God only
knows what they will have done to keep the furnace and water heater going.

Although there are, of course, exceptions to every rule, the same thing goes
with an aircraft. In my opinion, if an owner doesn't care about the
interior and paint to keep things looking nice, God only knows what else
they've skated on. It may indicate that they simply couldn't afford to
keep an aircraft, which means that these will be the same guys who get
el-cheapo, "spray paint" annual inspections, or they may do their own
repairs without proper sign-offs.

These are gross generalizations, to be sure. And, of course, a thorough
pre-buy inspection will separate these dogs from the good buys -- but not
always.

Either way, a great looking plane will sell for significantly more, not
because the buyers are ignorant, but because it costs many thousands of
dollars to paint a plane, and thousands more to re-do an interior.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"


  #25  
Old September 8th 04, 04:42 PM
G.R. Patterson III
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Jay Honeck wrote:

However, in my experience it's usually safe to say that an aircraft that's
kept immaculate is going to sell for a higher price than one that isn't.


It's definitely the case that a plane that's cleaned up for prospective buyers will
probably sell for more than one that isn't, but buyers aren't going to know (and
probably won't care) whether the plane has been "kept immaculate."

George Patterson
If you want to know God's opinion of money, just look at the people
he gives it to.
  #26  
Old September 8th 04, 05:05 PM
Bob Noel
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In article GHE%c.2313$LT5.143@attbi_s52, "Jay Honeck"
wrote:

But I will stand by my statement that appearance matters. If a
home-owner
doesn't care enough to keep the gutters functional and proper, God only
knows what they will have done to keep the furnace and water heater
going.

Although there are, of course, exceptions to every rule, the same thing
goes
with an aircraft. In my opinion, if an owner doesn't care about the
interior and paint to keep things looking nice, God only knows what else
they've skated on. It may indicate that they simply couldn't afford to
keep an aircraft, which means that these will be the same guys who get
el-cheapo, "spray paint" annual inspections, or they may do their own
repairs without proper sign-offs.


It could mean the current owner doesn't care if the paint is pretty.
What could matter to the current owner is whether or not the
aircraft is mechanically sound. I put a lot of money into
my cherokee to give it great radios and an overhauled engine
(i.e., everything firewall forward overhauled). I don't care if the
paint is sad or the interior isn't pretty - it sure wouldn't fly
any better. Do you really want to try to tell me my aircraft is crap?



These are gross generalizations, to be sure. And, of course, a thorough
pre-buy inspection will separate these dogs from the good buys -- but not
always.


true.


Either way, a great looking plane will sell for significantly more, not
because the buyers are ignorant, but because it costs many thousands of
dollars to paint a plane, and thousands more to re-do an interior.


No, a great looking plane sells for more precisely because there
are buyers more interested in appearance than making sure the
aircraft is in good shape mechanically.

--
Bob Noel
Seen on Kerry's campaign airplane: "the real deal"
oh yeah baby.
  #27  
Old September 8th 04, 11:58 PM
Michael
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"Jay Honeck" wrote
I agree with you that it takes knowledge to evaluate aircraft and homes.
(Which is why a pre-buy inspection -- of both -- by a qualified
professional, is essential.)


Absolutely.

But I will stand by my statement that appearance matters.


You can stand by it, but it's still wrong. You can't judge a book by
the cover.

If a home-owner
doesn't care enough to keep the gutters functional and proper, God only
knows what they will have done to keep the furnace and water heater going.


Just as likely, he noticed that the water heater was showing early
warning signs of a problem (for example, increased fuel use without
increased load) and decided that it was more important to fix this now
(before it got expensive) than to deal with the gutters, and put the
gutters off. That probably doesn't carry much weight if you live out
in the middle of nowhere and consider a house built twenty years ago
old, since there's not much to go wrong in a new house if it's built
well, but check out some houses on the East Coast (where an 1800 sq ft
A-frame built in the 1950's will bring well over $300K - a situation
that has much in common with the used airplane market) and you will
see that this is a major issue.

Although there are, of course, exceptions to every rule, the same thing goes
with an aircraft. In my opinion, if an owner doesn't care about the
interior and paint to keep things looking nice, God only knows what else
they've skated on.


You've said it before - and all you're doing is showing your
ignorance. It's the owner that has the time to mess with paint and
interior that is probably skating - and doesn't even know it. Then,
when he has a big bill down the road, it will be just one of those
things that happens in airplane ownership.

It may indicate that they simply couldn't afford to
keep an aircraft, which means that these will be the same guys who get
el-cheapo, "spray paint" annual inspections, or they may do their own
repairs without proper sign-offs.


The former happens, but those are the guys who will get a paint and
interior to sell the plane.

The latter happens too - but remember, it's not the paperwork that
keeps the airplane safe. Usually, the issue isn't getting a signoff -
the people doing the maintenance competently can find someone to sign
it off. The issue is doing the work competently - and incompetent
repairs stand out like a sore thumb on a prepurchase.

These are gross generalizations, to be sure. And, of course, a thorough
pre-buy inspection will separate these dogs from the good buys -- but not
always.


Actually, a good pre-purchase inspection will ALWAYS separate out the
ones that are worth buying from the ones that are not. It might miss
one or thwo things, but a plane that only has one or two things wrong
is rare - and if the owner has been skating on maintenance,
nonexistent. The key is getting a good prepurchase inspection. First
clue - if the mechanic so much as mentions paint and interior, odds
are that you're NOT getting a good one.

In reality, a good pre-purchase is tough to find - and the moment you
start talking about any sort of guarantee or an annual as a
prepurchase, it becomes impossible as every sensible mechanic quickly
figures out what kind of customer he is dealing with and becomes too
busy.

Either way, a great looking plane will sell for significantly more, not
because the buyers are ignorant, but because it costs many thousands of
dollars to paint a plane, and thousands more to re-do an interior.


In reality, a crappy airplane with good paint and interior will
generally sell for more than it would cost to buy a crappy airplane
and have paint and interior done. That's because you can usually
convince some ignorant buyer that the airplane is in good condition
even though it's what experienced owners call a polished turd.

Michael
  #28  
Old September 9th 04, 04:12 AM
Jay Honeck
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Actually, a good pre-purchase inspection will ALWAYS separate out the
ones that are worth buying from the ones that are not.


Close, but not quite true.

The pre-buy on our first plane (the Warrior) gave it a clean bill of health.
At the annual, just a few months later, we discovered a bad cylinder and
piston, because (believe it or not) the previous owner had simply omitted
the little cap at the end of the pushrod -- the part that actuates the
valve.

We were flying around in a plane that was actually missing a critical engine
part -- and there was simply no way a pre-buy could detect that, short of
tearing down the engine. That first annual ended up costing us $5K -- and
this was after we had a very thorough pre-buy inspection done by the same
shop.

Now that shop turned out to be overly picky and border-line shady, and quite
frankly they took advantage of me as a new owner. (Had I knew then what I
know now, I would have had them button up the plane, and flown it to another
shop.) But the point is still valid -- a pre-buy may not catch everything,
and what slips by can be very, very expensive.

This is why a Spam Can buyer would be just plain foolish to risk buying a
plane with a doggy interior and paint -- which MAY indicate poor
treatment -- when the market is chock-full of aircraft that have been
well-maintained and cared for. The financial risks of buying a bad airplane
are simply too high, so it's the wise buyer who limits his search to
aircraft that have obviously been treated well.

Either way, a great looking plane will sell for significantly more, not
because the buyers are ignorant, but because it costs many thousands of
dollars to paint a plane, and thousands more to re-do an interior.


In reality, a crappy airplane with good paint and interior will
generally sell for more than it would cost to buy a crappy airplane
and have paint and interior done. That's because you can usually
convince some ignorant buyer that the airplane is in good condition
even though it's what experienced owners call a polished turd.


Around here it's known as putting lipstick on a pig. ;-)

I think BOTH examples occur with regularity. There are goofy buyers who
ignore the pig beneath the lipstick, and there are goofy sellers who let
their planes go to hell.

'Twas ever thus, methinks!
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"


  #29  
Old September 9th 04, 04:36 PM
Michael
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"Jay Honeck" wrote
Actually, a good pre-purchase inspection will ALWAYS separate out the
ones that are worth buying from the ones that are not.


Close, but not quite true.

The pre-buy on our first plane (the Warrior) gave it a clean bill of health.
At the annual, just a few months later, we discovered a bad cylinder and
piston, because (believe it or not) the previous owner had simply omitted
the little cap at the end of the pushrod -- the part that actuates the
valve.


A bad jug is ONE problem - and not a terribly major one, either. That
doesn't move the airplane from the "worth buying" to "not worth
buying" category. In fact, Lycoming/Continental QC being what it is
(it meets FAA standards - 'nuff said?) occasional bad jugs are a fact
of life.

A well-maintained airplane will usually still have the odd problem.
It's when you see A LOT of them that the plane isn't worth buying -
and a good prepurchase will turn that up every time.

Now the next question is - did you have a good prepurchase?

Now that shop turned out to be overly picky and border-line shady, and quite
frankly they took advantage of me as a new owner.


So the answer is no, they did NOT do a good pre-purchase.

But the point is still valid -- a pre-buy may not catch everything,
and what slips by can be very, very expensive.


No, the point is really not valid. You dealt with a lousy shop, so
you had a lousy prebuy. They ONLY thing a good prebuy would have
missed was items like that one jug. And that's a maybe - it may
already have been showing marginal compression and required "jiggling"
to get the numbers to come up.

This is why a Spam Can buyer would be just plain foolish to risk buying a
plane with a doggy interior and paint -- which MAY indicate poor
treatment -- when the market is chock-full of aircraft that have been
well-maintained and cared for.


The market is not full of aircraft that have been well-maintained and
cared for. They are the exception. The market IS full of planes like
the one you bought - good paint and interior, needs an expensive
annual.

I've said this before, and I'll say it again - you need to pick your
mechanic before you start shopping for an airplane. You need to pick
one ONLY on the basis of personal recommendation, from people you
trust, who have the same philosophy on maintenance you do. You can't
judge a book by its cover here either - neither a clean shop floor nor
a big fuzzy cat on a ragged out couch is definitive.

You also need a mentor - an experienced owner who will go with you to
look at the planes - not to do a complete prepurchase, but just give
it a quick look-see and eliminate the dogs. You CAN NOT eliminate the
dogs on the basis of paint and interior - because MOST of the planes
with fresh paint and interior are polished turds. You need someone
who knows something of the type and something about maintenance.

Once you eliminate the turds (and 90% of what is out there will be a
turd) then you have your mechanic do a prepurchase.

Michael
  #30  
Old September 10th 04, 03:27 PM
Dude
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If it is your assumption that most airplanes are turds, and you then decide
that the ones with interior and paint maintained are still most likely
turds, then I may go with you on that one. Depending on how old a plane is,
ones idea of "turd" may change. 90% is too high a number though, especially
if you find a bad jug as acceptable.

If you think buyers typically pay too much attention to the paint and
interior quality then you are completely correct. So if you want to sell
aplane, no matter how good the mechanicals are, painting it is a good idea.

If it is your belief that nothing can be told from fresh paint and interior
vs. not so nice same, then you are wrong. Based on those facts as well as
an intuitive look at the owner, his mechanic, and the log books you can get
some good ideas on how suspicious you should be.

For instance. The owner is crisply dressed, makes or has a lot of money, is
moving up to more plane, drives an expensive late model car (no dents,
waxed), and his hangar is neat and tidy (or he uses a hangar service that
pulls the plane for him). The mechanic has a neat, clean shop. The plane
and log books are compulsively neat and clean. This plane is likely to be a
winner, no matter what the paint and interior condition, but you and I know
this guy has a nice interior and paint. No one would think this plane is
likely to need interior or paint unless its new owner wants it done to his
taste. All the facts fit a nice neat picture. We still do a prebuy, but we
expect we will find it all.

On the other hand. Take a slob owner, who is trading down, or out. Combine
that with a mechanic working out of the back of an '89 buick. This plane is
desiring a serious amount of skepticism. If the paint is new - walk away.
If its old, this doesn't tell you much, but you want to look for things they
may not be telling you because there is a good chance they cannot afford the
repair. Can you afford the prebuy on this plane?

Now, you have a retired guy, who seems the responsible type who wants to
sell his plane. His mechanic is rough around the edges and curses a lot,
but he seems to know his stuff. The paint and interior are old or original,
but clean. The logs look to be in order, and everything seems to work on the
plane except the Loran (which is placarded). Now, I find nothing suspicious
here either. This is likely worth a prebuy.

Can you see where I am going Michael? The plane's condition has to fit the
rest of the story. Saying you should walk away from nice paint and interior
seems a bit foolish. I can tell you that a seller who wants top dollar will
put paint or interior on anything that needs it. Personally, I would rather
do that myself as a new buyer, but most buyers do not respond this way.

In the end, nothing really works but a good prebuy. No rule fits all the
cases. My advice is to listen to the little voice in your head. The same
one that tells you today is not the day to go flying.




"Michael" wrote in message
om...
"Jay Honeck" wrote
Actually, a good pre-purchase inspection will ALWAYS separate out the
ones that are worth buying from the ones that are not.


Close, but not quite true.

The pre-buy on our first plane (the Warrior) gave it a clean bill of

health.
At the annual, just a few months later, we discovered a bad cylinder and
piston, because (believe it or not) the previous owner had simply

omitted
the little cap at the end of the pushrod -- the part that actuates the
valve.


A bad jug is ONE problem - and not a terribly major one, either. That
doesn't move the airplane from the "worth buying" to "not worth
buying" category. In fact, Lycoming/Continental QC being what it is
(it meets FAA standards - 'nuff said?) occasional bad jugs are a fact
of life.

A well-maintained airplane will usually still have the odd problem.
It's when you see A LOT of them that the plane isn't worth buying -
and a good prepurchase will turn that up every time.

Now the next question is - did you have a good prepurchase?

Now that shop turned out to be overly picky and border-line shady, and

quite
frankly they took advantage of me as a new owner.


So the answer is no, they did NOT do a good pre-purchase.

But the point is still valid -- a pre-buy may not catch everything,
and what slips by can be very, very expensive.


No, the point is really not valid. You dealt with a lousy shop, so
you had a lousy prebuy. They ONLY thing a good prebuy would have
missed was items like that one jug. And that's a maybe - it may
already have been showing marginal compression and required "jiggling"
to get the numbers to come up.

This is why a Spam Can buyer would be just plain foolish to risk buying

a
plane with a doggy interior and paint -- which MAY indicate poor
treatment -- when the market is chock-full of aircraft that have been
well-maintained and cared for.


The market is not full of aircraft that have been well-maintained and
cared for. They are the exception. The market IS full of planes like
the one you bought - good paint and interior, needs an expensive
annual.

I've said this before, and I'll say it again - you need to pick your
mechanic before you start shopping for an airplane. You need to pick
one ONLY on the basis of personal recommendation, from people you
trust, who have the same philosophy on maintenance you do. You can't
judge a book by its cover here either - neither a clean shop floor nor
a big fuzzy cat on a ragged out couch is definitive.

You also need a mentor - an experienced owner who will go with you to
look at the planes - not to do a complete prepurchase, but just give
it a quick look-see and eliminate the dogs. You CAN NOT eliminate the
dogs on the basis of paint and interior - because MOST of the planes
with fresh paint and interior are polished turds. You need someone
who knows something of the type and something about maintenance.

Once you eliminate the turds (and 90% of what is out there will be a
turd) then you have your mechanic do a prepurchase.

Michael



 




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