How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

(Title intended to add a bit of levity to serious post.)

Soaring can kill you, but how do we put that risk into perspective?

A statistics based Mortality Calculator helped me do that. I answered a few questions about my medical profile and age and it told me that statistically I have a 19% chance of dieing in the next ten years from natural causes or from an accident of any kind. Say a 1 in 5 chance. (Sucks of course.) The calculator does not properly weight the fact that I'm a glider pilot, so how do I adjust for that?

It's obvious to me that my chances of dying in a glider are much much better than 1 in 5. So it is much much more likely that I will die of some other cause before I live long enough to die in a glider. Worrying about a glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the inherent dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen, but it is much more likely to die from something else. And as I get older, the odds of dying in a glider continue to drop.

An article about the mortality calculator. http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-on-death.html

The calculator http://eprognosis.ucsf.edu/

On Monday, January 13, 2014 6:55:05 AM UTC-6, son_of_flubber wrote:
(Title intended to add a bit of levity to serious post.)



Soaring can kill you, but how do we put that risk into perspective?



A statistics based Mortality Calculator helped me do that. I answered a few questions about my medical profile and age and it told me that statistically I have a 19% chance of dieing in the next ten years from natural causes or from an accident of any kind. Say a 1 in 5 chance. (Sucks of course..) The calculator does not properly weight the fact that I'm a glider pilot, so how do I adjust for that?



It's obvious to me that my chances of dying in a glider are much much better than 1 in 5. So it is much much more likely that I will die of some other cause before I live long enough to die in a glider. Worrying about a glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the inherent dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen, but it is much more likely to die from something else. And as I get older, the odds of dying in a glider continue to drop.



An article about the mortality calculator. http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-on-death.html



The calculator http://eprognosis.ucsf.edu/

"Worrying about a glider accident is completely irrational..."

You obviously haven't read the famous Gantenbrink article:
http://www.dg-flugzeugbau.de/safety-comes-first-e.html

Nobody decides to go out there and start "flying like an idiot" as you put it. Your thinking is flawed and dangerous in itself. When going to a contest or just to fly locally, I visualize myself driving in the opposite direction on the freeway, with my body and my glider intact and I vow to fly in a way to make that happen.
Herb

On Monday, January 13, 2014 9:03:49 AM UTC-5, wrote:

"Worrying about a glider accident is completely irrational..."

I don't think that it is fair to take that statement out of context. Here is what I said:

summary of text omitted: my chances of dieing from all causes in the next ten years is 19%, see original post if interested in where this number comes from.

son_of_flubber wrote:
It's obvious to me that my chances of dying in a glider are much much better than 1 in 5. So it is much much more likely that I will die of some other cause before I live long enough to die in a glider. Worrying about a glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the inherent dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen, but it is much more likely to die from something else. And as I get older, the odds of dying in a glider continue to drop.

The key word that you gloss over is "worry". Worry means to feel anxiety, and feeling anxiety in the air, reduces my performance. The extreme case is to feel anxiety to the point of panic where performance goes through the floor. Anxiety and worry make flying more dangerous.

If you read what I wrote, you will see that I did not decide to disregard the inherent dangers of flying when I decided to stop worrying. I'm saying that you can pay much closer attention to those dangers if you stop feeling anxious (aka stop worrying).

wrote:
You obviously haven't read the famous Gantenbrink article:
http://www.dg-flugzeugbau.de/safety-comes-first-e.html

At your suggestion I've gone back and reread this article. To use Bruno Gantenbrink's numbers, a world champion has a 10% chance of dieing in a glider (and lower levels of pilots like me have lower mortality rates). My chance of dieing from natural causes and non-flying related accidents in the next ten years is 19%. Even if I were a world champion, 19% is twice 10%. 2:1 (this grossly exaggerates the flying related mortality because we're talking about the next ten years, not an entire flying career). If you understand statistics, this puts the risks of flying in perspective. If you think that statistics are mumbo-jumbo, feel free to disregard my reasoning.

wrote:
Nobody decides to go out there and start "flying like an idiot" as you put it.

From what I've seen, "flying like an idiot" is a clear and present danger that every pilot is capable of falling into. Being honest about the mistakes that we make and changing our habits/style to avoid those same mistakes in the future is good piloting. I know that I'm capable of "flying like an idiot" but I don't worry about it. I just try my best to avoid doing dumb stuff. When I start "flying like an idiot" on a routine basis (it could happen), I will stop flying. At some point, I will start taking an annual flight review because things can change fast.

Well, since it's winter and the sky looks flat today, I'll attempt to show
you how little I know about statistics:

Say the chance of flipping a coin and getting heads is 1:2 or 0.5. The odds
of flipping that coin twice and getting heads twice is 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25.
The odds of flipping it three times (same logic) is 0.125. With that in
mind, what are the odds that the fourth flip will be heads?

Do you really think that, since 1 in 10 German champions died in a glider
crash (wasn't that 3 of 32?), that the remainder should quit flying since
they have a 1 in 10 chance of dieing in a glider crash? "Let's see... I've
had 9 flights and survived, so I guess I'll die if I takeoff again."

Why not follow the advice of Alfred E. Newman?

"son_of_flubber" wrote in message
...
On Monday, January 13, 2014 9:03:49 AM UTC-5, wrote:

"Worrying about a glider accident is completely irrational..."

I don't think that it is fair to take that statement out of context. Here
is what I said:

summary of text omitted: my chances of dieing from all causes in the next
ten years is 19%, see original post if interested in where this number comes
from.

son_of_flubber wrote:
It's obvious to me that my chances of dying in a glider are much much
better than 1 in 5. So it is much much more likely that I will die of
some other cause before I live long enough to die in a glider. Worrying
about a glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the
inherent dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen,
but it is much more likely to die from something else. And as I get
older, the odds of dying in a glider continue to drop.

The key word that you gloss over is "worry". Worry means to feel anxiety,
and feeling anxiety in the air, reduces my performance. The extreme case is
to feel anxiety to the point of panic where performance goes through the
floor. Anxiety and worry make flying more dangerous.

If you read what I wrote, you will see that I did not decide to disregard
the inherent dangers of flying when I decided to stop worrying. I'm saying
that you can pay much closer attention to those dangers if you stop feeling
anxious (aka stop worrying).

wrote:
You obviously haven't read the famous Gantenbrink article:
http://www.dg-flugzeugbau.de/safety-comes-first-e.html

At your suggestion I've gone back and reread this article. To use Bruno
Gantenbrink's numbers, a world champion has a 10% chance of dieing in a
glider (and lower levels of pilots like me have lower mortality rates). My
chance of dieing from natural causes and non-flying related accidents in the
next ten years is 19%. Even if I were a world champion, 19% is twice 10%.
2:1 (this grossly exaggerates the flying related mortality because we're
talking about the next ten years, not an entire flying career). If you
understand statistics, this puts the risks of flying in perspective. If you
think that statistics are mumbo-jumbo, feel free to disregard my reasoning.

wrote:
Nobody decides to go out there and start "flying like an idiot" as you put
it.

From what I've seen, "flying like an idiot" is a clear and present danger
that every pilot is capable of falling into. Being honest about the
mistakes that we make and changing our habits/style to avoid those same
mistakes in the future is good piloting. I know that I'm capable of "flying
like an idiot" but I don't worry about it. I just try my best to avoid
doing dumb stuff. When I start "flying like an idiot" on a routine basis
(it could happen), I will stop flying. At some point, I will start taking
an annual flight review because things can change fast.

On Friday, January 17, 2014 1:49:17 PM UTC-5, Dan Marotta wrote:

Do you really think that, since 1 in 10 German champions died in a glider
crash (wasn't that 3 of 32?), that the remainder should quit flying since
they have a 1 in 10 chance of dieing in a glider crash? "Let's see... I've
had 9 flights and survived, so I guess I'll die if I takeoff again."

I don't see how you got that from what I wrote. I've no clue about the motivations of world champion glider pilots and no opinion about their choices..

I'm pretty sure that I will die of natural causes. I don't worry about dying of natural causes, but I do everything that I can to stay healthy (sleep well, good diet, exercise, be sociable, don't worry and enjoy life).

I'm pretty sure that I will die of natural causes BEFORE I die in a glider. The point of my original post is that I find this conjecture to be a good reason to stop worrying about dieing in a glider. My second reason to stop worrying is that worry (feeling anxiety) degrades the quality of my flying.. At the end of the day, I still do everything that I can to fly safely and reduce risk to myself and innocent bystanders. I don't think that worry should be my motivation to fly safely.

On 13/01/14 12:55, son_of_flubber wrote:
(Title intended to add a bit of levity to serious post.)

Soaring can kill you, but how do we put that risk into perspective?

A statistics based Mortality Calculator helped me do that. I answered a few questions about my medical profile and age and it told me that statistically I have a 19% chance of dieing in the next ten years from natural causes or from an accident of any kind. Say a 1 in 5 chance. (Sucks of course.) The calculator does not properly weight the fact that I'm a glider pilot, so how do I adjust for that?

It's obvious to me that my chances of dying in a glider are much much better than 1 in 5. So it is much much more likely that I will die of some other cause before I live long enough to die in a glider. Worrying about a glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the inherent dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen, but it is much more likely to die from something else. And as I get older, the odds of dying in a glider continue to drop.

An article about the mortality calculator. http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-on-death.html

The calculator http://eprognosis.ucsf.edu/

A good way of measuring mortality is in terms of "micromorts",
a 1 in a million chance of dying.

For example, each hang-glider trip has a risk of 8 micromorts.
Living in the UK has risk of around 40 micromorts/day including
natural causes, or 1 micromort/day without.

FFI, see
http://understandinguncertainty.org/microlives
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort

On Monday, January 13, 2014 6:55:05 AM UTC-6, son_of_flubber wrote:

Soaring can kill you, but how do we put that risk into perspective?

A statistics based Mortality Calculator helped me do that. I answered a few questions about my medical profile and age and it told me that statistically I have a 19% chance of dieing in the next ten years from natural causes or from an accident of any kind. Say a 1 in 5 chance. (Sucks of course..) The calculator does not properly weight the fact that I'm a glider pilot, so how do I adjust for that?

It's obvious to me that my chances of dying in a glider are much much better than 1 in 5. So it is much much more likely that I will die of some other cause before I live long enough to die in a glider. Worrying about a glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the inherent dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen, but it is much more likely to die from something else. And as I get older, the odds of dying in a glider continue to drop.

An article about the mortality calculator. http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-on-death.html

Bah. Your risk is exactly 50%. Either you die, or you don't.

And as others will surely point out - gliding is dangerous, way more so than the proverbial "drive to the airport".

So you better worry about dying in a glider accident - dude, it happens! A lot! And as you get older, you become even more dangerous.

Not trying to be alarmist, but there it is. I've had many friends die in glider accidents, mostly (all?) self-inflicted. All old, experienced pilots. Nobody dies in car accidents any more!

I suggest you stop trying to justify your risk via statistical mumbo-jumbo and concentrate on learning what the actual threat is and training yourself to recognize and defeat it.

It's a lot more fun, anyway...

(by the way...do you have a real name or did your parents really hate you?)

Cheers,

Kirk
66

So - who cares? We're all gonna die some day so why not just enjoy life
along the way?


"kirk.stant" wrote in message
...
On Monday, January 13, 2014 6:55:05 AM UTC-6, son_of_flubber wrote:

Soaring can kill you, but how do we put that risk into perspective?

A statistics based Mortality Calculator helped me do that. I answered a
few questions about my medical profile and age and it told me that
statistically I have a 19% chance of dieing in the next ten years from
natural causes or from an accident of any kind. Say a 1 in 5 chance.
(Sucks of course.) The calculator does not properly weight the fact that
I'm a glider pilot, so how do I adjust for that?

It's obvious to me that my chances of dying in a glider are much much
better than 1 in 5. So it is much much more likely that I will die of
some other cause before I live long enough to die in a glider. Worrying
about a glider accident is completely irrational (until I disregard the
inherent dangers and start flying like an idiot.) Sure it could happen,
but it is much more likely to die from something else. And as I get
older, the odds of dying in a glider continue to drop.

An article about the mortality calculator.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-on-death.html

Bah. Your risk is exactly 50%. Either you die, or you don't.

And as others will surely point out - gliding is dangerous, way more so than
the proverbial "drive to the airport".

So you better worry about dying in a glider accident - dude, it happens! A
lot! And as you get older, you become even more dangerous.

Not trying to be alarmist, but there it is. I've had many friends die in
glider accidents, mostly (all?) self-inflicted. All old, experienced pilots.
Nobody dies in car accidents any more!

I suggest you stop trying to justify your risk via statistical mumbo-jumbo
and concentrate on learning what the actual threat is and training yourself
to recognize and defeat it.

It's a lot more fun, anyway...

(by the way...do you have a real name or did your parents really hate you?)

Cheers,

Kirk
66

On Monday, January 13, 2014 9:58:06 AM UTC-5, kirk.stant wrote:

So you better worry about dying in a glider accident - dude, it happens!

I know that flying is dangerous and I'm actually a "squeaky wheel" about safety issues in pretty much every situation, not just flying. I just think that it is better to do something about a safety issue, than to worry about it. Worry/anxiety clouds the mind. I guess that worry/anxiety is the only thing that motivates some people wrt safety, but that is not me.


And as you get older, you become even more dangerous.

You missed my point. I agree that it's obvious that as piloting capacities deteriorate with age, that we are more likely to do something dumb or make a mistake. But (also obvious) as you get older, your chances of dieing from natural causes in the next few years increase as well.

We don't have the numbers to say whether an 80 year pilot is more likely to die in a glider than a 70 year old pilot. It is probably fair to say that in the last year (or few months) of natural life (assuming a rapid drop-off of mental and physical capabilities), a pilot who continues to fly has a much higher chance of dieing in a glider accident than he did for his entire flying career. I saw that happen once and I plan to stop flying before I become that dangerous to innocent bystanders.

Thank you Debbie Downer.