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Avgas availability



 
 
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  #1  
Old May 15th 07, 11:12 PM posted to rec.aviation.owning
Matt Whiting
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2,232
Default Avgas availability


Anyone seeing any avgas shortages? I just learned that a local airport
(7N1) is out of gas. The FBO has a 10,000 gallon tank and ordered fuel
back in February and still hasn't received it. He ran out yesterday...

Matt
Ads
  #2  
Old May 16th 07, 11:28 AM posted to rec.aviation.owning
kontiki
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 479
Default Avgas availability

Matt Whiting wrote:


Anyone seeing any avgas shortages? I just learned that a local airport
(7N1) is out of gas. The FBO has a 10,000 gallon tank and ordered fuel
back in February and still hasn't received it. He ran out yesterday...

Matt


No, but I've been hearing reports that supply is very tight. The reasons
of course are this country's complete failure to improve infastructure
or explore for more supply of an important commodity. Thus supply is
very short, demand is up and so are prices. Its economics 101.

When supply is tight, fule suppliers with do what they call
"allocating". Customers that are not branded (and just shop
around for the lowest prices when they need fuel) can be left
without fuel in favore of allocated customers. It happened
for a while when Katrina hit.



  #3  
Old May 16th 07, 02:18 PM posted to rec.aviation.owning
Matt Barrow[_4_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,119
Default Avgas availability

"kontiki" wrote in message
...
Matt Whiting wrote:


Anyone seeing any avgas shortages? I just learned that a local airport
(7N1) is out of gas. The FBO has a 10,000 gallon tank and ordered fuel
back in February and still hasn't received it. He ran out yesterday...

Matt


No, but I've been hearing reports that supply is very tight. The reasons
of course are this country's complete failure to improve infastructure
or explore for more supply of an important commodity.


Oh, they know where it is (Continental shelf, ANWR, etc.), so exploration is
rather worthless.

Thus supply is
very short, demand is up and so are prices. Its economics 101.


Right now, two of the biggest refineries are shut down for maintenance, and
one had to be shut down for unexpected repairs. Petro industry people warned
about this for years and Katrina wasn't the wakeup call that cementheads
needed.

As most every one knows, we've not built a refinery in the US in 32 years,
and during that time


When supply is tight, fule suppliers with do what they call
"allocating". Customers that are not branded (and just shop
around for the lowest prices when they need fuel) can be left
without fuel in favore of allocated customers. It happened
for a while when Katrina hit.


http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArti...63601990515635

/quote
Our refineries are doing more than ever, but their numbers are dwindling and
no new ones are being built. The reason is not greed, but cost and
regulations. From 1994 to 2003, the refining industry spent $47.4 billion,
not to build new refineries, but to bring existing ones into compliance with
ever new and stringent environmental rules. That's where those allegedly
excessive profits go.

In 2006, the blending of ethanol into gasoline reached a new high of more
than five billion gallons and production if new clean-burning ultra
low-sulfur diesel fuel topped a record 2.6 million barrels a day at the end
of last year.

The fact is that U.S. refining capacity has been growing at about 1% a year
for the past decade - the equivalent of adding a mid-size refinery every
year. Since 1996, U.S. refiners have expanded capacity by more than 2
million barrels a day This is a remarkable achievement in the face of
environmental mandates setting new ethanol usage and low-sulfur
requirements.

But the last major refinery built in the U.S. was in Garyville, La., in 1976
and the ones we have are getting older, no matter how well they're
maintained. Fifty out of 194 refineries were shut down from 1990 to 2004.
There is no slack in the system. Like the cars they fuel, periodic
maintenance us required.

/end

BTW, regarding that 2 million bbls/day of expanded capacity (we use, what,
10 million a day?), two studies several years ago (late 70's early 80s')
calculated we could save over 10% annually on gas usage by merely
coordinating traffic signals better. Of course, that would mean localities
would possibly have to give up $$billions in reveune from fines. It also
means that those self-same localities would have to get off their asses and
do the work of setting them correctly. Fat chance: the built-in congestion
is now FAR worse, with traffic cams and the like. NO, it's so much easier to
pontificate "Public Service" BS like "share a ride", "ride your bike"...
It's nice to have the advertising budget, too.


--
Matt Barrow (14 years in the road design/building business)
Performace Homes, LLC.
Colorado Springs, CO




  #4  
Old May 16th 07, 02:32 PM posted to rec.aviation.owning
ktbr
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 221
Default Avgas availability

Excellent and accurate information. However it is worthless
if not widely disseminated or understood, much less acted
upon by so called "leaders" (generous use of term).
  #5  
Old May 16th 07, 04:56 PM posted to rec.aviation.owning
Ross
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 463
Default Avgas availability

Matt Barrow wrote:


BTW, regarding that 2 million bbls/day of expanded capacity (we use, what,
10 million a day?), two studies several years ago (late 70's early 80s')
calculated we could save over 10% annually on gas usage by merely
coordinating traffic signals better. Of course, that would mean localities
would possibly have to give up $$billions in reveune from fines. It also
means that those self-same localities would have to get off their asses and
do the work of setting them correctly. Fat chance: the built-in congestion
is now FAR worse, with traffic cams and the like. NO, it's so much easier to
pontificate "Public Service" BS like "share a ride", "ride your bike"...
It's nice to have the advertising budget, too.



I am on a commuter bus for 35 miles one way. Very convienent. My company
pays one half the cost. With gas at $2.97 this week, that is very nice.
--

Regards, Ross
C-172F 180HP
KSWI
  #6  
Old May 16th 07, 11:34 PM posted to rec.aviation.owning
Robert M. Gary
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2,767
Default Avgas availability

On May 16, 6:18 am, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:
"kontiki" wrote in message

...

Matt Whiting wrote:


Anyone seeing any avgas shortages? I just learned that a local airport
(7N1) is out of gas. The FBO has a 10,000 gallon tank and ordered fuel
back in February and still hasn't received it. He ran out yesterday...


Matt


No, but I've been hearing reports that supply is very tight. The reasons
of course are this country's complete failure to improve infastructure
or explore for more supply of an important commodity.


Oh, they know where it is (Continental shelf, ANWR, etc.), so exploration is
rather worthless.

Thus supply is
very short, demand is up and so are prices. Its economics 101.


Right now, two of the biggest refineries are shut down for maintenance, and
one had to be shut down for unexpected repairs. Petro industry people warned
about this for years and Katrina wasn't the wakeup call that cementheads
needed.

As most every one knows, we've not built a refinery in the US in 32 years,
and during that time



When supply is tight, fule suppliers with do what they call
"allocating". Customers that are not branded (and just shop
around for the lowest prices when they need fuel) can be left
without fuel in favore of allocated customers. It happened
for a while when Katrina hit.


http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArti...63601990515635

/quote
Our refineries are doing more than ever, but their numbers are dwindling and
no new ones are being built. The reason is not greed, but cost and
regulations. From 1994 to 2003, the refining industry spent $47.4 billion,
not to build new refineries, but to bring existing ones into compliance with
ever new and stringent environmental rules. That's where those allegedly
excessive profits go.

In 2006, the blending of ethanol into gasoline reached a new high of more
than five billion gallons and production if new clean-burning ultra
low-sulfur diesel fuel topped a record 2.6 million barrels a day at the end
of last year.

The fact is that U.S. refining capacity has been growing at about 1% a year
for the past decade - the equivalent of adding a mid-size refinery every
year. Since 1996, U.S. refiners have expanded capacity by more than 2
million barrels a day This is a remarkable achievement in the face of
environmental mandates setting new ethanol usage and low-sulfur
requirements.

But the last major refinery built in the U.S. was in Garyville, La., in 1976
and the ones we have are getting older, no matter how well they're
maintained. Fifty out of 194 refineries were shut down from 1990 to 2004.
There is no slack in the system. Like the cars they fuel, periodic
maintenance us required.

/end

BTW, regarding that 2 million bbls/day of expanded capacity (we use, what,
10 million a day?), two studies several years ago (late 70's early 80s')
calculated we could save over 10% annually on gas usage by merely
coordinating traffic signals better. Of course, that would mean localities
would possibly have to give up $$billions in reveune from fines. It also
means that those self-same localities would have to get off their asses and
do the work of setting them correctly. Fat chance: the built-in congestion
is now FAR worse, with traffic cams and the like. NO, it's so much easier to
pontificate "Public Service" BS like "share a ride", "ride your bike"...
It's nice to have the advertising budget, too.

--
Matt Barrow (14 years in the road design/building business)
Performace Homes, LLC.
Colorado Springs, CO


All very true. However, lack of capacity does not result in shortages
as the OP suggests. In a free market lack of capacity or supply
results in higher prices. Now, if the democrats try to cap prices or
increase the tax on gas the restricted capacity would result in
shortages.

-Robert

  #7  
Old May 17th 07, 12:08 AM posted to rec.aviation.owning
John Galban
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 64
Default Avgas availability

On May 16, 6:18 am, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:
NO, it's so much easier to
pontificate "Public Service" BS like "share a ride", "ride your bike"...
It's nice to have the advertising budget, too.


Well, actually doing those things makes a significant difference
too. Those of us who keep track of oil production and consumption
figures know that people will cut consumption drastically if the price
hurts enough. This was demonstrated quite handily after the Katrina
related spike two years ago. People started riding busses, sharing
rides and using more fuel efficient transportation. Consumption
numbers dropped around 10% and the street price of a gallon of gas
dipped below $2 shortly thereafter.

Of course, with the price below $2/gal, people went right back to
their old ways and consumption (and prices) went right back up. It's
quite evident that we can cut back sigificantly when we have to. We
just don't want to.

BTW - If gas prices get you down, invest in the oil sector. It'll
make you feel better.

John Galban=====N4BQ (PA28-180)



  #8  
Old May 17th 07, 12:08 AM posted to rec.aviation.owning
Bob Fry
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 369
Default Avgas availability

"RG" == Robert M Gary writes:
RG In a free market lack of
RG capacity or supply results in higher prices. Now, if the
RG democrats try to cap prices or increase the tax on gas the
RG restricted capacity would result in shortages.

An increased tax would result in a higher retail price...how would
that create a shortage again? Wouldn't it tend to reduce consumption
thereby alleviating the shortage?

--
"Better to be a geek than an idiot."
  #9  
Old May 17th 07, 12:28 AM posted to rec.aviation.owning
Jim Carter[_1_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 403
Default Avgas availability

It depends entirely on where the tax is applicable. If the tax is on income
and revenue (windfall profits revisited?) then it might curtail production
because of less capital to reinvest and less incentive to run at capacity.
If the tax is an excise and attached at the pump, then the industry
producers will see little impact to their revenue, but you and I will pick
up the load. That might result in a reduced demand for fuel, which might
increase availability but that cause and effect often alludes the
population.

--
Jim Carter
Rogers, Arkansas


  #10  
Old May 17th 07, 01:52 AM posted to rec.aviation.owning
Matt Whiting
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2,232
Default Avgas availability

Robert M. Gary wrote:

All very true. However, lack of capacity does not result in shortages
as the OP suggests. In a free market lack of capacity or supply
results in higher prices. Now, if the democrats try to cap prices or
increase the tax on gas the restricted capacity would result in
shortages.


It absolutely does result in shortages. Capacity can't be added in zero
time even if it is economically viable to do so. And prices have to
stay high enough, long enough to attract new investment. In the mean
time, shortages will occur ever more frequently even as the prices rise
dramatically.


Matt
 




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