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Biggest bonehead moves flying into OSH?
Two days ago, while returning from the east coast on a business trip, I
heard an exchange between a plane going to OSH and the controllers in Michigan. We were at 10,000 in an out of IMC and doing a large deviation to avoid a line of thunderstorms. The pilot going to OSH asked for an IFR clearance in the air to go to an intersection near OSH (?) The controller patiently explained that a reservation was required to get a clearance into OSH, although the pilot didn't seem to understand what this meant, and kept asking for a clearance to some intersection near OSH. Finally, the controller said it wasn't going to happen, and offered VFR advisories over the lake (roughly 80 miles). The pilot accepted this, and proceeded to fly over the lake, between layers of clouds, at 4500 feet in a single. I mentally wished him luck. While getting gas at my home base, the line guy related a story of a couple in a clapped out ratty home built who wanted to leave at night to fly over Lake Michigan, VFR. They said they did similar over water trips all the time, and that they knew how to swim. About five minutes after departure they returned, with a complete electrical failure. Most of the pilots I know would acknowledge that flying over Lake Michigan in a single is a calculated risk, and would do it high, with lots of gas, and perhaps with survival gear. Some won't do it at all in a single, since the survival rate after ditching is very low. Most wouldn't do it at night or in IMC. Are there any other stories out there about questionable judgment flying into OSH? |
#2
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Biggest bonehead moves flying into OSH?
"Viperdoc" wrote in message
... Are there any other stories out there about questionable judgment flying into OSH? I was flying east over the lake from OSH at 11,500' in a loose formation of five planes. About half way over, I saw a bright yellow cub flying the other way at what looked like 1000'. |
#3
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Biggest bonehead moves flying into OSH?
"Viperdoc" wrote in message
Most of the pilots I know would acknowledge that flying over Lake Michigan in a single is a calculated risk, and would do it high, with lots of gas, and perhaps with survival gear. Some won't do it at all in a single, **since the survival rate after ditching is very low**. Most wouldn't do it at night or in IMC. Are you sure about that survival rate? Here's one site that provides stats disproving that theory (old, but the trends aren't likely to have changed much since): http://www.equipped.com/ditchingmyths.htm -- John T http://sage1solutions.com/blogs/TknoFlyer http://sage1solutions.com/products NEW! FlyteBalance v2.0 (W&B); FlyteLog v2.0 (Logbook) ____________________ |
#4
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Biggest bonehead moves flying into OSH?
In article ,
John T wrote: "Viperdoc" wrote in message Most of the pilots I know would acknowledge that flying over Lake Michigan in a single is a calculated risk, and would do it high, with lots of gas, and perhaps with survival gear. Some won't do it at all in a single, **since the survival rate after ditching is very low**. Most wouldn't do it at night or in IMC. Are you sure about that survival rate? Here's one site that provides stats disproving that theory (old, but the trends aren't likely to have changed much since): There is surviving the ditching, and surviving the swim in Lake Michigan. In the context of this discussion, I'd count failing the second part as a failed ditching. John -- John Clear - http://www.clear-prop.org/ |
#5
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Biggest bonehead moves flying into OSH?
"John Clear" wrote in message
There is surviving the ditching, and surviving the swim in Lake Michigan. In the context of this discussion, I'd count failing the second part as a failed ditching. I agree and that would have been reflected in the stats quoted in the link. -- John T http://sage1solutions.com/blogs/TknoFlyer http://sage1solutions.com/products NEW! FlyteBalance v2.0 (W&B); FlyteLog v2.0 (Logbook) ____________________ |
#6
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Biggest bonehead moves flying into OSH?
"John T" wrote in message m... "John Clear" wrote in message There is surviving the ditching, and surviving the swim in Lake Michigan. In the context of this discussion, I'd count failing the second part as a failed ditching. I agree and that would have been reflected in the stats quoted in the link. Did you read just the stats? The author states, "Still, as the overall record shows, pilots somehow muddle through anyway. This is certainly due in part to the fact that the majority of ditchings--86 percent, to be exact--occur in what we call 'coastal and inshore water,' along an ocean beach, in a sheltered bay not far from land or even a lake, a river, a pond or a canal. Many of these ditching sites are within sight of land or boats and the egressing pilots and crew are able to swim to shore or are quickly picked up by helpful yachtsman." A ditching in the middle of Lake Michigan would be in the remaining 14 percent. |
#7
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Biggest bonehead moves flying into OSH?
"John T" wrote in message m... Are you sure about that survival rate? Here's one site that provides stats disproving that theory (old, but the trends aren't likely to have changed much since): http://www.equipped.com/ditchingmyths.htm I don't see any statistics there regarding an unplanned 20+ mile swim in Lake Michigan. |
#8
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Biggest bonehead moves flying into OSH?
On Sat, 28 Jul 2007 16:34:59 GMT, "Steven P. McNicoll"
wrote: "John T" wrote in message om... Are you sure about that survival rate? Here's one site that provides stats disproving that theory (old, but the trends aren't likely to have changed much since): http://www.equipped.com/ditchingmyths.htm I don't see any statistics there regarding an unplanned 20+ mile swim in Lake Michigan. Not to worry. The water is so cold even a good swimmer would sucumb to hypothermia well before reaching shore. Going across from Ludington it's 50 miles so the swim could be 25 miles. |
#9
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Biggest bonehead moves flying into OSH?
"Roger (K8RI)" wrote in message
I don't see any statistics there regarding an unplanned 20+ mile swim in Lake Michigan. Not to worry. The water is so cold even a good swimmer would sucumb to hypothermia well before reaching shore. Going across from Ludington it's 50 miles so the swim could be 25 miles. Both of you are assuming no survival gear. I won't argue the point strongly since I wouldn't be comfortable down low even with survival gear and one can argue (safely, I think) that somebody willing to fly across that much water at 2000 feet may well be willing to do so without any gear at all. However, my point was simply to take issue with the OP's assertion that "survival rate after ditching is very low". The stats simply don't back this up. Sure we can always find exceptional situations that are almost guaranteed to be fatal, but unless the OP clarifies otherwise, this statement was nothing more than repeating an OWT. Ditching is quite survivable. -- John T http://sage1solutions.com/blogs/TknoFlyer http://sage1solutions.com/products NEW! FlyteBalance v2.0 (W&B); FlyteLog v2.0 (Logbook) ____________________ |
#10
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Biggest bonehead moves flying into OSH?
"John T" wrote in message m... Both of you are assuming no survival gear. I won't argue the point strongly since I wouldn't be comfortable down low even with survival gear and one can argue (safely, I think) that somebody willing to fly across that much water at 2000 feet may well be willing to do so without any gear at all. However, my point was simply to take issue with the OP's assertion that "survival rate after ditching is very low". The stats simply don't back this up. Sure we can always find exceptional situations that are almost guaranteed to be fatal, but unless the OP clarifies otherwise, this statement was nothing more than repeating an OWT. Ditching is quite survivable. The OP's assertion had nothing to do with the ditching. |
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