Lancair IV-P lost near Lansing MI

On Thu, 03 Jun 2004 16:45:42 GMT, "Richard Kaplan"
wrote:


"Bill Denton" wrote in message
...

Take a Bonanza. Put a pilot in it, a pilot who one hour previously was
sewing somebody's heart closed...

First of all, few doctors do work that is as dramatic as you say... probably
similar to the percentage of pilots who regularly do inverted flat spins.

Second of all, self-confidence is a TERRIFIC pilot attribute. The problem
only comes in when that self-confidence is not equally tempered with an
understanding of one's limitations. As for doctors, the concept of risk vs.
benefit is very well understood. The sports analogy does not hold.


--------------------
Richard Kaplan, CFII

You guys are very interesting to read. Where the hell did you come
from? I've rarely seen such thought provoking posts on RAH. It must
be the cross post to this other group on piloting. Thank you for
taking the time to share your thoughts here.

What you say here reminds me of John Kennedy and his crash. Here was
a guy with all the money in the world, all the women he'd ever need,
all the "everything" that being rich could bring a guy. I think that
someone like him may have extrapolated into thinking they were so
blessed that they didn't need to pay attention in an airplane in
marginal VFR conditions without proper training.

As an old time CFI and CFII I've seen this a lot and it's what I call
the "Doctor" syndrome, although it isn't strictly reserved to doctors.
These people are so successful in every aspect of their lives that
they assume they will be "just as blessed" with good luck, proper
responses and problem solving techniques in a 200 mph airplane in IMC.
It is as you guys say. It's an ego thing of self confidence. Kennedy
was so successful and blessed, he knew the laws of physics were for
everyone else and since he was so special, they just didn't apply to
him. It's a mind-set. I for one, think this had a lot to do with
what bit him.

BWB

Wondering if there is anywhere besides the NTSB's website where the
crash findings are published. I realize it will be a year, but I
checked the website, and the most recent published report published is
on an accident that happened on 8/10/2001. One of the passengers
(Roger Hertz) was a good friend, and obviously, I'd like to find out
what happened.
Thanks all.
Alan
VE3FCJ

Roger Halstead wrote in message . ..
On Thu, 03 Jun 2004 01:26:46 GMT, Ron Wanttaja
wrote:

On Wed, 02 Jun 2004 18:46:16 GMT, "Thomas J. Paladino Jr."
wrote:

Fuel exhaustion? Seems plausible.

Nah, there would have been a mayday call or something if they had just ran
out of gas.

Not necessarily... the pilot may not have known the actual fuel state,
depending on how accurate the gauges were or how well they were working at
the time of the accident. If the engine quit suddenly, things might have
happened too fast for a mayday.

The apparent lack of post-impact fire really argues for no fuel onboard.

True, but one witness said he heard the what sounded like high RPM, or
something to that effect. That and they were only about 15 minutes
out from the start of a very long cross country. (The first 50 miles
of a 1000 mile trip)


The one article has a witness statement that I think could be telling:
"The plane appeared to be flying normally, flat, and then went up like it
was trying to go higher, went into a spiral and crashed into the ground."

Sounds to me like the pilot or passenger could have accidentally hit the
control stick, pitched the plane up suddenly and set her into a spin.
(assuming the witness is reliable).

Lots of things could have happened and at this point it is all
speculation. Control failure, Pilot problem, They had apparently
gone through some heavier weather at the start of the flight, but
again that is at least second or third hand. If they got that plastic
airplane in hail, or a thunderstorm, again lots of things can happen.
Even a piece of heavy baggage coming loose


Certainly a possibility, though it's not a common accident mode. It's
tough to accidentally pull a stick back hard, but it could have been
knocked forward and the pitch-up was from over-reaction. Seems a bit of a
reach, though.

Side stick in the IV-P. I don't remember if it's a joy stick, or true
side stick. I flew a Cozy that had a joystick just like a video game
and it was a joy to fly. I found I don't like the side sticks like
the Cirrus uses.


You're certainly right about witness reliability. Back when the second
Wheeler Express prototype crashed on its way to Oshkosh, they had an
eyewitness on the local news. The guy said that the plane "fluttered down,
definitely NOT in a spin." And, of course, the plane WAS in a spin...it's
just that the non-pilot observer didn't recognize it.

Let's see what the NTSB preliminary has to say...

From the photos the parts are all pretty much in the same spot, just
not attached and in pretty poor shape.

And as you say... Let's see what the NTSB has to say.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com



Ron Wanttaja

All you people who feel you have to say something on every topic no matter
how little you really know about it make me sick!

Most of you have never even seen the inside of a Lancair, and your
speculations are just repeats of stuff that has been floating around on the
net for a long time.

This particular accident, was weather-related, not Lancair-related. Read
the NTSB preliminary.

Here is a quote from the NTSB:
"Aircraft radar track data was obtained from the Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA), Grand Rapids Approach Control facility. The track data
was plotted on a weather radar chart that depicted areas of precipitation
and their corresponding intensities. The plotted data showed N707SH
traveling into an area of level six precipitation prior to a rapid loss of
altitude. The aircraft entered the region of level six radar returns at
12,000 feet and the last radar return was at 2,000 feet approximately 1-1/2
minutes later."

Level 6 is the highest classification of precipitation, described as
"extreme, more than 5" per hour.

http://www.ntsb.gov/NTSB/brief.asp?e...04X00740&key=1

Wow.

That Lancair dropped ten thousand feet in the space of a minute and a half,
according to radar returns.

That's a descent of over 6000fpm, which is consistent with the downburst of
a potent thuderstorm.

We can only speculate what happened, but it seems likely that the pilot
tangled with a thunderstorm and possibly got swept down in a microburst.

Why he would enter a Level 6 storm? That is the question. Surely ATC must
have given him warning from their scopes.

Would he have acted differently with a radar display in the airplane? I
would say probably--seeing in living color the kind of activity you are
flying into is more persuasive than hearing about it in your headset.

Gordon Arnaut.
Ontario, Canada.




"Veeber" wrote in message
news:QsTwc.11813$HG.11601@attbi_s53...
All you people who feel you have to say something on every topic no matter
how little you really know about it make me sick!

Most of you have never even seen the inside of a Lancair, and your
speculations are just repeats of stuff that has been floating around on
the
net for a long time.

This particular accident, was weather-related, not Lancair-related. Read
the NTSB preliminary.

Here is a quote from the NTSB:
"Aircraft radar track data was obtained from the Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA), Grand Rapids Approach Control facility. The track
data
was plotted on a weather radar chart that depicted areas of precipitation
and their corresponding intensities. The plotted data showed N707SH
traveling into an area of level six precipitation prior to a rapid loss of
altitude. The aircraft entered the region of level six radar returns at
12,000 feet and the last radar return was at 2,000 feet approximately
1-1/2
minutes later."

Level 6 is the highest classification of precipitation, described as
"extreme, more than 5" per hour.

http://www.ntsb.gov/NTSB/brief.asp?e...04X00740&key=1