contrails

On Fri, 25 Dec 2009 20:40:00 -0800, Eric Greenwell wrote:

delboy wrote:
5) Eventually the coal and oil reserves will run out, so we won't be
able burn any more anyway, which is the best case for conserving them
as much as possible.

"Eventually" is hundreds of years for coal, far beyond the current
danger timelines.

You may be surprised. A around 2006 back I wondered about that, dug up
the estimates for global coal reserves and estimates for the then current
rates of increase in coal use (250 years reserve at the 2006 burn rate,
2% annual increase). I plugged those into a standard compound interest
calculation, which predicts all coal will be gone in 85 years.

A recent review (New Scientist, vol 197, no 2639, 19 Jan 2008 page 38) of
coal reserves supports my simplistic analysis. It thinks the coal,
industry reserve figures are twice reality and that we'll pass peak coal
not more than a decade or two after peak oil. IOW coal is unlikely to
become an oil substitute. Peak oil, by some estimates was passed in 2005
or 2006.

6) Sooner or later, something such as nuclear war, a metorite strike,
famine, an untreatable disease, or another ice age will decimate or
wipe out the human population. I bet the big dinosaurs thought they had
it made!

And all of these will be easier to deal with if we aren't already in big
trouble with climate problems.

I couldn't agree more.

I've also been trying to find out who said that technological
civilisation is a one-shot deal - meaning that if our technically-based
civilisation collapses for any reason (climate change, big asteroid
strike, nuclear war, pick your favourite disaster) while we're still
reliant on non-renewable natural resources then its most unlikely that it
will ever be possible to rebuild its replacement.


--
martin@ | Martin Gregorie
gregorie. | Essex, UK
org |

On Tue, 29 Dec 2009 05:01:59 -0800, Tom Gardner wrote:

ObJoke: we don't have climate, we have weather!

Hence the saying "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get".


--
martin@ | Martin Gregorie
gregorie. | Essex, UK
org |

On 29 Dec 2009, 17:14, Martin Gregorie
wrote:
On Tue, 29 Dec 2009 05:01:59 -0800, Tom Gardner wrote:
ObJoke: we don't have climate, we have weather!

Hence the saying "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get".

We are having a very cold winter in the UK and Northern Europe (and so
I understand is North America). The whole of the UK is blanketed in
snow and gliding here has largely come to a halt. We also had a
relatively cold winter last year.

So the questions a

1) Are we entering another mini or maxi ice age?

2) Is man made global warming/climate change a scam dreamed up by
unscrupulous politicians, so they can control and tax us more? They
fund the scientists who are trying to prove the case, but not the
sceptical ones.

3) Will sea levels rise when all the snow and ice on the UK eventually
melts (tongue in cheek question)?

4) If the cold winter is down to recent man made global warming/
climate change, we also had particularly cold winters in 1982,
1962/63, 1948, and during the mini ice age period in the 14th - 19th
century. What caused them? Prior to the mini ice age, the British
Isles were warm enough to be a noted wine growing area!

Derek Copeland

While at one time it was valid to judge what was going on in the whole
world by what was happening in England, those days are passed. Your
local climate has little to say about what is globally in play with
climate. In fact, England should get a good deal colder with the
progression of global warming, the seas will dilute and the saline
gradient that drags warm water to your shores will cease to flow. It
would be catastrophic to many fisheries as well.

Mark Jardini

On 8 Jan, 06:57, Mark Jardini wrote:
While at one time it was valid to judge what was going on in the whole
world by what was happening in England, those days are passed. Your
local climate has little to say about what is globally in play with
climate. In fact, England should get a good deal colder with the
progression of global warming, the seas will dilute and the saline
gradient that drags warm water to your shores will cease to flow. It
would be catastrophic to many fisheries as well.

Mark Jardini

I did also mention Northern Europe and North America, so I was not
being a little Englander. Northern France and the other European
countries are also having a bad time.

The argument you are putting forward is that sea ice and the snow on
top of it will melt due to global warming and, being lower in salt
content, will dilute the salinity of oceans. In fact I wouldn't be
surprised to see an increase in sea ice this year. These things are
cyclical, and apparently there was little sea ice in the Medieval mini
warm period between the 9th and 13th Centuries. This allowed the
Vikings to settle in Iceland and Greenland. The ones in Greenland were
wiped out by cold weather in the 15th century. See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age


The main reason our weather is so cold at the moment is that the
airmass is coming from the cold north-east polar regions due to a
blocking anticyclone, rather than from the more normal, more
temperate, south-west direction.

Derek Copeland

On Jan 8, 7:59*am, delboy wrote:
On 8 Jan, 06:57, Mark Jardini wrote:

While at one time it was valid to judge what was going on in the whole
world by what was happening in England, those days are passed. Your
local climate has little to say about what is globally in play with
climate. In fact, England should get a good deal colder with the
progression of global warming, the seas will dilute and the saline
gradient that drags warm water to your shores will cease to flow. It
would be catastrophic to many fisheries as well.

Mark Jardini

I did also mention Northern Europe and North America, so I was not
being a little Englander. Northern France and the other European
countries are also having a bad time.

The argument you are putting forward is that sea ice and the snow on
top of it will melt due to global warming and, being lower in salt
content, will dilute the salinity of oceans. In fact I wouldn't be
surprised to see an increase in sea ice this year. These things are
cyclical, and apparently there was little sea ice in the Medieval mini
warm period between the 9th and 13th Centuries. This allowed the
Vikings to settle in Iceland and Greenland. The ones in Greenland were
wiped out by cold weather in the 15th century. See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

The main reason our weather is so cold at the moment is that the
airmass is coming from the cold north-east polar regions due to a
blocking anticyclone, rather than from the more normal, more
temperate, south-west direction.

Derek Copeland

Don't forget Mark's second point, which appears to be the more
significant in the long term. If the Gulf Stream shuts down then
olar bears will roam London (same latitude as Churchill in
Canada), presuming they haven't become extinct beforehand

On Jan 8, 6:35*am, delboy wrote:
On 29 Dec 2009, 17:14, Martin Gregorie
wrote:

On Tue, 29 Dec 2009 05:01:59 -0800, Tom Gardner wrote:
ObJoke: we don't have climate, we have weather!

Hence the saying "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get".

We are having a very cold winter in the UK and Northern Europe (and so
I understand is North America). The whole of the UK is blanketed in
snow and gliding here has largely come to a halt. We also had a
relatively cold winter last year.

So the questions a

1) Are we entering another mini or maxi ice age?

Insufficient evidence to know which way things will tip,
but a good precursor of a flip to a different regime would
be more frequent extreme weather conditions.

2) Is man made global warming/climate change a scam dreamed up by
unscrupulous politicians, so they can control and tax us more? They
fund the scientists who are trying to prove the case, but not the
sceptical ones.

Can I suggest you put the tinfoil hat back on. What on earth makes
you dream that they need *extra* powers/reasons/arguments/etc
to tax and control us!


3) Will sea levels rise when all the snow and ice on the UK eventually
melts (tongue in cheek question)?

4) If the cold winter is down to recent man made global warming/
climate change, we also had particularly cold winters in 1982,
1962/63, 1948, and during the mini ice age period in the 14th - 19th
century. What caused them? Prior to the mini ice age, the British
Isles were warm enough to be a noted wine growing area!

Anybody suggesting one year's *weather* as a indication of *climate*
change is a prime candidate for buying a secondhand bridge in
New York!

Mark Jardini wrote:
While at one time it was valid to judge what was going on in the whole
world by what was happening in England, those days are passed. Your
local climate has little to say about what is globally in play with
climate. In fact, England should get a good deal colder with the
progression of global warming, the seas will dilute and the saline
gradient that drags warm water to your shores will cease to flow. It
would be catastrophic to many fisheries as well.

Mark Jardini


http://www.kusi.com/home/78477082.html?video=pop&t=a

Tom Gardner wrote:
On Jan 8, 7:59 am, delboy wrote:
On 8 Jan, 06:57, Mark Jardini wrote:

While at one time it was valid to judge what was going on in the whole
world by what was happening in England, those days are passed. Your
local climate has little to say about what is globally in play with
climate. In fact, England should get a good deal colder with the
progression of global warming, the seas will dilute and the saline
gradient that drags warm water to your shores will cease to flow. It
would be catastrophic to many fisheries as well.
Mark Jardini
I did also mention Northern Europe and North America, so I was not
being a little Englander. Northern France and the other European
countries are also having a bad time.

The argument you are putting forward is that sea ice and the snow on
top of it will melt due to global warming and, being lower in salt
content, will dilute the salinity of oceans. In fact I wouldn't be
surprised to see an increase in sea ice this year. These things are
cyclical, and apparently there was little sea ice in the Medieval mini
warm period between the 9th and 13th Centuries. This allowed the
Vikings to settle in Iceland and Greenland. The ones in Greenland were
wiped out by cold weather in the 15th century. See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

The main reason our weather is so cold at the moment is that the
airmass is coming from the cold north-east polar regions due to a
blocking anticyclone, rather than from the more normal, more
temperate, south-west direction.

Derek Copeland

Don't forget Mark's second point, which appears to be the more
significant in the long term. If the Gulf Stream shuts down then
olar bears will roam London (same latitude as Churchill in
Canada), presuming they haven't become extinct beforehand


Here's an interesting picture of a bunch of folks protesting against
global warming....rather interesting...

http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/...rming-protest/

On 8 Jan, 11:25, Tom Gardner wrote:
On Jan 8, 6:35*am, delboy wrote:





On 29 Dec 2009, 17:14, Martin Gregorie
wrote:

On Tue, 29 Dec 2009 05:01:59 -0800, Tom Gardner wrote:
ObJoke: we don't have climate, we have weather!

Hence the saying "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get".

We are having a very cold winter in the UK and Northern Europe (and so
I understand is North America). The whole of the UK is blanketed in
snow and gliding here has largely come to a halt. We also had a
relatively cold winter last year.

So the questions a

1) Are we entering another mini or maxi ice age?

Insufficient evidence to know which way things will tip,
but a good precursor of a flip to a different regime would
be more frequent extreme weather conditions.

2) Is man made global warming/climate change a scam dreamed up by
unscrupulous politicians, so they can control and tax us more? They
fund the scientists who are trying to prove the case, but not the
sceptical ones.

Can I suggest you put the tinfoil hat back on. What on earth makes
you dream that they need *extra* powers/reasons/arguments/etc
to tax and control us!

3) Will sea levels rise when all the snow and ice on the UK eventually
melts (tongue in cheek question)?

4) If the cold winter is down to recent man made global warming/
climate change, we also had particularly cold winters in 1982,
1962/63, 1948, and during the mini ice age period in the 14th - 19th
century. What caused them? Prior to the mini ice age, the British
Isles were warm enough to be a noted wine growing area!

Anybody suggesting one year's *weather* as a indication of *climate*
change is a prime candidate for buying a secondhand bridge in
New York!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Hi Tom,

1) On the control/taxation issue, you obviously don't live in the Nu
Labour governed UK. They are always looking for new ways to tax us,
and green issues give them a good excuse to do so. They have already
introduced Airport Travel Taxes and extra duties on motor fuels and
large engined cars.

2) The point I am trying to make (at least in my last posting) is that
there is good evidence that the climate has been variable before, with
naturally cold and warm periods. The fact that measured global
temperatures have increased by a fraction of a degree over the last
100 years, and the ice caps are melting, doesn't necessarily mean that
this will be a continuing trend.

Derek Copeland