US Dollar sinks to new low against Euro

Interesting post Steve.
As an over 50 newbie to soaring flying out of a club that operates 7 days a
week during the soaring season, I thought a self launcher was only useful on
days when the flight line gets long. Hearing horror stories about increased
fatalities when landing out associated with the motor (waiting too long,
failing to start, etc.) I didn't think there was a whole lot of value for
the extra $. Your post puts a different spin on it - accelerated learning,
safely exploring marginal conditions, etc. When you consider the cost of 100
tows a year, and SLs (an Apis anyway) running about an extra $20K USD, you
can amortize the motor over ten years or so with saved tow fees (which keep
going up). Sure, maintenance will cost more, but life is short.

Wad

It has provided me the opportunity to fly when
the weather is okay, good or flat out amazing, as well as to try things
when
the weather is poor but you are just curios if there's any way you might
actually be able to get somewhere... I feel that I have been able to
accelerate my learning curve, by
using my self launcher to simply gather different experiences and even to
mitigate certain risks and allow myself to move forward to continue
learning
and get to where I want to go.

Steve Hill wrote in message ...

I'd guess if/when you get that Antares, you'll find whatever you fly now,
collecting dust.

Good point (and all of this discussion is fun - "devil's advocate"
stuff at times.

You may be right that if I had a self launch my pure glider would
gather dust - I would probably trade it for a really nice 1-26 (with
an open canopy) and a Swift for acro. Different tools for different
jobs.

But I'm not sure about self-launching being the way to grow the sport,
purely on a cost basis. I could afford half of a cherry LS6, and have
flown it about 200 hours a year ever since I got it. There is
absolutely no way I can pony up to the equivalent self launcher
(lottery excepted, of course!). How many newbies are going to take
that first jump?

Cheers,

Kirk

Ruud wrote:
(Tom Seim) wrote in message om...

(Mike Stringfellow) wrote in message . com...

The US dollar is now valued close to 0.75 Euro, down from its peak of
1.25 a couple of years ago. Analysts say it may go even lower, with
some projecting exchange rates of 0.7 (1.4 dollar to the Euro).

This has pretty much put the kibosh on my goals of buying a new
European sailplane. A model at, say, Euro 85,000 cost around $70,000
a couple of years ago, is now around $110,000 and may soon be at
$120,000.

Economic models would suggest a strong incentive for sailplane
manufacture in North America, but I wonder if the numbers of potential
sales would justify this.

Any thoughts?

Yes, invest your money and wait. For instance, if you put your money
in a high quality mutual fund you will begin accumulating principal.
Take your $70,000 and put in a Morningstar 5-star fund (i.e. Fidelity
Contrafund). If you average 15% return the numbers a
Year Amount
0 $70000
1 80500
2 92575
3 106461
4 122430
5 140795
6 161914
etc.

At some point the price of the glider, converted from euros, is going
to be less than your investment. BUY THE GLIDER! This is, simply, the
power of compounded interest.

Don't agree with my numbers? Then put your damn money into a mattress
and see what happens!

The moral of the story is that patience is on the side of the buyer.


Interesting story.
The only trouble with it is that an average return of 15% on your
investment is not enough to keep up with the free fall of the US
dollar.
You can also try a different strategy - If you have the cash, or can borrow it
at nominal interest. Order the most expensive European glider you can afford and
pay upfront. Delivery is at least one year, some as much as two.

When the glider ships you can afford to offer immediate delivery of a brand new
glider at the factory price. You may even be in a position to be generous and
offer a slight discount in dollar terms. Your rate of return on the investment
will be the depreciation rate of the Dollar against the Euro, compounded over
the period.

This works as long as the dollar is on a one way ticket against the Euro.
Probably a good bet until the US deficit is wound down a bit and messers Bush
and co stop throwing money at Iraquis.

Lots of folk made money this way in South Africa betting against the first world
currencies. Rand went one way, with minor reversals from R2/USD mid 1970s. That
is, until 2002 when the rand was at 12 / USD - before retracing to its current
R6/USD. The guys who bought big two years ago are hurting a little at present.

Arbitrage is always risky, but sometimes it pays off.

"Ruud" wrote in message
om...
(Tom Seim) wrote in message
om...
(Mike Stringfellow) wrote in message
. com...
The US dollar is now valued close to 0.75 Euro, down from its peak of
1.25 a couple of years ago. Analysts say it may go even lower, with
some projecting exchange rates of 0.7 (1.4 dollar to the Euro).

This has pretty much put the kibosh on my goals of buying a new
European sailplane. A model at, say, Euro 85,000 cost around $70,000
a couple of years ago, is now around $110,000 and may soon be at
$120,000.

Economic models would suggest a strong incentive for sailplane
manufacture in North America, but I wonder if the numbers of potential
sales would justify this.

Any thoughts?

Yes, invest your money and wait. For instance, if you put your money
in a high quality mutual fund you will begin accumulating principal.
Take your $70,000 and put in a Morningstar 5-star fund (i.e. Fidelity
Contrafund). If you average 15% return the numbers a
Year Amount
0 $70000
1 80500
2 92575
3 106461
4 122430
5 140795
6 161914
etc.

At some point the price of the glider, converted from euros, is going
to be less than your investment. BUY THE GLIDER! This is, simply, the
power of compounded interest.

Don't agree with my numbers? Then put your damn money into a mattress
and see what happens!

The moral of the story is that patience is on the side of the buyer.

Interesting story.
The only trouble with it is that an average return of 15% on your
investment is not enough to keep up with the free fall of the US
dollar.

It's time to drag out the old quote spoken by JP Morgan, "The market will
fluctuate". That's true of exchange rates as well as stocks. Economic
forces are largely self correcting especially in the international economy -
although the time scale of the correction may be long. The US economy has a
lot of problems but then so does all other world economies.

The low value of the US Dollar is largely due to the US central banks
interest rate cuts post "Dot Bomb" and 9/11. US interest rates are now on
an upward trajectory and that will raise the value of the US Dollar over the
next few years. International money fund managers know this and will be
slowly moving money into the US economy which will amplify the effect.

The advice to sit tight and invest is a good one. Maybe buy an old glider
and enjoy flying it while the exchange rate corrects.

Bill Daniels

Stewart Kissel wrote in message ...

Well I would hope not...who would want to get beat
by something that costs one-third the price

Yes, if new is the object; but an older used std or 15m will run about
the same as a new Sparrowhawk and have significant performance
advantages - granted with some disadvantges. Depends what you want.

???? Last time I checked...sports class was going
gang-busters. And for that matter, looking at Sports
Class results I sure see a lot of the latest ships
racing in that class. Does that mmean they are having
less fun then if they went Open/Standard/15m?

I'll concede this point - although for some sports class doesn't have
a lot of appeal, judging by the group I race with (myself included).
Sorry, I want to race, not just fly around on my own (my own biased
preference, I dislike PST intensely so will no even consider Sports
class - but no criticism of Sports class advocates intended).

Using this logic Kirk...sounds like you need to move
up to open class.

I've flown some XC in a Lak-12 and enjoyed it, but prefer 15M. That
may change as I move East; I sure wish I could get some 18M tips for
my LS6!


If they thought otherwise...they did not do their homework.

I totally agree.


High performance or high dollars? Nothing wrong with
promoting flying new ships...that now go for $100K+,
but in theory soaring has not quite become America's
Cup yacht racing yet.

High performance + new = high dollars
High performance + used = less dollars
High performance + syndicate = less dollars
Medium performance + new = less dollars
Medium performance + used = even less dollars.

Take your pick. And as you said, do your homework!

Kirk

"Bill Daniels" wrote in message
news:Yapmd.46422$5K2.25371@attbi_s03...

The low value of the US Dollar is largely due to the US central banks
interest rate cuts post "Dot Bomb" and 9/11.

The record US budget deficit also has a bit to do with it.

Vaughn

The dollar will really be low if foreign countries stop financing our
budget deficit.


Vaughn wrote:
"Bill Daniels" wrote in message
news:Yapmd.46422$5K2.25371@attbi_s03...

The low value of the US Dollar is largely due to the US central banks
interest rate cuts post "Dot Bomb" and 9/11.


The record US budget deficit also has a bit to do with it.

Vaughn

I recently read about a turbine engine that puts out 160-260 hp and weighs
180lbs with only 18 moving parts!

As I read further about this $30k or so engine, it became clear that the
prop for it was "extra." And it was quite noisy. And fuel
consumption was close, but over a third more than
piston aircraft.

For powered planes, this is an issue, but for gliders?

I'm still interested in the idea of a turbine powered sailplane
without a propeller. Sure, very inefficient (it looks like
about 3-4 times as much fuel consumed), but gliders seem about the
ONLY place where this may be a good tradeoff, since the time of
engine running is so short.

A low weight, fuel inefficient engine with no prop, a low weight glider,
and a medium performance L/D (meaning a low stall speed so
reasonable acceleration to takeoff). Must be a single engine,
otherwise it would likely be uninsurable (as if
insuring a glider with ONE turbine wasn't bad enough

Other than a lightweight, inefficient turbine, I don't see
any other "revolutionary" powerplants for gliders which might
bring the cost down and create more widespread interest.

In article ,
Bob Korves bkorves@winfirstDECIMALcom wrote:
I have always thought that self launchers were cool, in a intellectual
daydream world that is. My feeling has been "If only I would win the
lottery...". I'll bet a lot of us have said this.

After being around self launchers for many years, however, I mostly remember
watching the owners fiddle with them, and then send the prop in for an AD,
wait 3 months, then fiddle some more, and then send the engine in for an AD,
wait another 3 months, and then fiddle some more.

Well, maybe I am exaggerating at little. The other issue is that for the
extra cost of the engine I could buy a Pawnee and have enough left over to
hire a cute tow pilot on the interest it earned.

Maybe a bit more exaggeration. I suppose if you are antisocial or live in a
part of the country where there are no tow planes, have time only during the
week when the club is closed, or whatever, and have lots of money, and time
for fiddling, then a self launcher would be dandy.

I happen to like the people in this sport at least as well as I like the
flying. I sometimes actually enjoy waiting in a tow line telling war
stories with my buddies. Nothing beats the Saturday night barbecue at the
gliderport. Not that having a self launcher excludes you from any of this,
of course.

Another reason I don't seek self launchers is that I am not really good at
complexity. I have enough trouble with the few levers and knobs is a pure
glider. While learning to use flaps I did just about every dumb thing one
can do with that single additional handle. A little voice in my head tells
me that the complexity of a self launcher is not a good thing for me,
personally. You may be different.

I think I am usually immune to peer pressure and my perceived standing in
the gliding community. Somehow, though, after I completed a long and
difficult flight in trying conditions, and somebody said "But you have an
engine" -- I might have a problem with that!

I am having a lot of fun with this post and I'm sure I have raised Eric
Greenwell's blood pressure by now. I guess I need to tell the other side of
the story. Last summer I met a pilot from Denmark, Francis, several times
who was in the U.S. flying his DG-400 all around the western part of the
country. And I mean all around. He started in Texas, worked his way up to
Washington state, and was on his way back to Texas. He had done this sort
of thing many times, in Europe, Morocco, etc. He does this every year. He
lives out of a plastic grocery sack stuffed into the tiny luggage shelf of
the glider. We took him to motels and to dinner since we had cars. This
guy was living my daydream!

Eric is also a pilot that really uses his self launcher well and often. He
is a great guy, sociable, and fun to fly with. I'm sure that there are many
others out there, too. So a self launcher can be a wonderful thing.

I would rather spend my meager gliding money buying more L/D with several
wonderful partners in really nice ships than buying a stinky, noisy engine
and propeller to fiddle with. If I won that lottery today, I don't think I
would change what I am doing now. As always, YMMV.

Flame suit on, Eric... :-)

-Bob Korves
Duo Discus 5H
LAK-17a 5K

"Waduino" wrote in message
.. .
Interesting post Steve.
As an over 50 newbie to soaring flying out of a club that operates 7 days
a
week during the soaring season, I thought a self launcher was only useful
on
days when the flight line gets long. Hearing horror stories about
increased
fatalities when landing out associated with the motor (waiting too long,
failing to start, etc.) I didn't think there was a whole lot of value for
the extra $. Your post puts a different spin on it - accelerated learning,
safely exploring marginal conditions, etc. When you consider the cost of
100
tows a year, and SLs (an Apis anyway) running about an extra $20K USD, you
can amortize the motor over ten years or so with saved tow fees (which
keep
going up). Sure, maintenance will cost more, but life is short.

Wad

It has provided me the opportunity to fly when
the weather is okay, good or flat out amazing, as well as to try things
when
the weather is poor but you are just curios if there's any way you might
actually be able to get somewhere... I feel that I have been able to
accelerate my learning curve, by
using my self launcher to simply gather different experiences and even
to
mitigate certain risks and allow myself to move forward to continue
learning
and get to where I want to go.






--

------------+
Mark J. Boyd

I'd have guessed record deficits had something to do with it as well,
but maybe I'm confusing concurrency with cause.

Yup, it's a pun.


"Bill Daniels" wrote in message news:Yapmd.46422$5K2.25371@attbi_s03...
"Ruud" wrote in message
om...
(Tom Seim) wrote in message
om...
(Mike Stringfellow) wrote in message
. com...
The US dollar is now valued close to 0.75 Euro, down from its peak of
1.25 a couple of years ago. Analysts say it may go even lower, with
some projecting exchange rates of 0.7 (1.4 dollar to the Euro).

This has pretty much put the kibosh on my goals of buying a new
European sailplane. A model at, say, Euro 85,000 cost around $70,000
a couple of years ago, is now around $110,000 and may soon be at
$120,000.

Economic models would suggest a strong incentive for sailplane
manufacture in North America, but I wonder if the numbers of potential
sales would justify this.

Any thoughts?

Yes, invest your money and wait. For instance, if you put your money
in a high quality mutual fund you will begin accumulating principal.
Take your $70,000 and put in a Morningstar 5-star fund (i.e. Fidelity
Contrafund). If you average 15% return the numbers a
Year Amount
0 $70000
1 80500
2 92575
3 106461
4 122430
5 140795
6 161914
etc.

At some point the price of the glider, converted from euros, is going
to be less than your investment. BUY THE GLIDER! This is, simply, the
power of compounded interest.

Don't agree with my numbers? Then put your damn money into a mattress
and see what happens!

The moral of the story is that patience is on the side of the buyer.

Interesting story.
The only trouble with it is that an average return of 15% on your
investment is not enough to keep up with the free fall of the US
dollar.

It's time to drag out the old quote spoken by JP Morgan, "The market will
fluctuate". That's true of exchange rates as well as stocks. Economic
forces are largely self correcting especially in the international economy -
although the time scale of the correction may be long. The US economy has a
lot of problems but then so does all other world economies.

The low value of the US Dollar is largely due to the US central banks
interest rate cuts post "Dot Bomb" and 9/11. US interest rates are now on
an upward trajectory and that will raise the value of the US Dollar over the
next few years. International money fund managers know this and will be
slowly moving money into the US economy which will amplify the effect.

The advice to sit tight and invest is a good one. Maybe buy an old glider
and enjoy flying it while the exchange rate corrects.

Bill Daniels

I have always thought that self launchers were cool, in a intellectual
daydream world that is. My feeling has been "If only I would win the
lottery...". I'll bet a lot of us have said this.

After being around self launchers for many years, however, I mostly remember
watching the owners fiddle with them, and then send the prop in for an AD,
wait 3 months, then fiddle some more, and then send the engine in for an AD,
wait another 3 months, and then fiddle some more.

Well, maybe I am exaggerating at little. The other issue is that for the
extra cost of the engine I could buy a Pawnee and have enough left over to
hire a cute tow pilot on the interest it earned.

Maybe a bit more exaggeration. I suppose if you are antisocial or live in a
part of the country where there are no tow planes, have time only during the
week when the club is closed, or whatever, and have lots of money, and time
for fiddling, then a self launcher would be dandy.

I happen to like the people in this sport at least as well as I like the
flying. I sometimes actually enjoy waiting in a tow line telling war
stories with my buddies. Nothing beats the Saturday night barbecue at the
gliderport. Not that having a self launcher excludes you from any of this,
of course.

Another reason I don't seek self launchers is that I am not really good at
complexity. I have enough trouble with the few levers and knobs is a pure
glider. While learning to use flaps I did just about every dumb thing one
can do with that single additional handle. A little voice in my head tells
me that the complexity of a self launcher is not a good thing for me,
personally. You may be different.

I think I am usually immune to peer pressure and my perceived standing in
the gliding community. Somehow, though, after I completed a long and
difficult flight in trying conditions, and somebody said "But you have an
engine" -- I might have a problem with that!

I am having a lot of fun with this post and I'm sure I have raised Eric
Greenwell's blood pressure by now. I guess I need to tell the other side of
the story. Last summer I met a pilot from Denmark, Francis, several times
who was in the U.S. flying his DG-400 all around the western part of the
country. And I mean all around. He started in Texas, worked his way up to
Washington state, and was on his way back to Texas. He had done this sort
of thing many times, in Europe, Morocco, etc. He does this every year. He
lives out of a plastic grocery sack stuffed into the tiny luggage shelf of
the glider. We took him to motels and to dinner since we had cars. This
guy was living my daydream!

Eric is also a pilot that really uses his self launcher well and often. He
is a great guy, sociable, and fun to fly with. I'm sure that there are many
others out there, too. So a self launcher can be a wonderful thing.

I would rather spend my meager gliding money buying more L/D with several
wonderful partners in really nice ships than buying a stinky, noisy engine
and propeller to fiddle with. If I won that lottery today, I don't think I
would change what I am doing now. As always, YMMV.

Flame suit on, Eric... :-)

-Bob Korves
Duo Discus 5H
LAK-17a 5K

"Waduino" wrote in message
...
Interesting post Steve.
As an over 50 newbie to soaring flying out of a club that operates 7 days
a
week during the soaring season, I thought a self launcher was only useful
on
days when the flight line gets long. Hearing horror stories about
increased
fatalities when landing out associated with the motor (waiting too long,
failing to start, etc.) I didn't think there was a whole lot of value for
the extra $. Your post puts a different spin on it - accelerated learning,
safely exploring marginal conditions, etc. When you consider the cost of
100
tows a year, and SLs (an Apis anyway) running about an extra $20K USD, you
can amortize the motor over ten years or so with saved tow fees (which
keep
going up). Sure, maintenance will cost more, but life is short.

Wad

It has provided me the opportunity to fly when
the weather is okay, good or flat out amazing, as well as to try things
when
the weather is poor but you are just curios if there's any way you might
actually be able to get somewhere... I feel that I have been able to
accelerate my learning curve, by
using my self launcher to simply gather different experiences and even
to
mitigate certain risks and allow myself to move forward to continue
learning
and get to where I want to go.