Issues around de-ice on a 182

"Michael" wrote in message
om...

So far my (admittedly limited) experience indicates that I would. I
have flown around frontal systems in the Midwest and Northeast and I
have not been surprised.

Does that mean you can fly almost all the time in the summer close to your
planned course with a minimal deviation?

Does it mean you can fly if you are willing to deviate by 50 miles? 100
miles? 200 miles?

Does it mean you can fly if you are willing to adjust your departure time by
an hour? 4 hours? 8 hours?

I think "cancellation" is a relative term.

As a general rule I find I can make most summer trips if I am willing to
adjust my flight plan either by 200 miles or by 8 hours. That generally
means I just about never cancel a long-distance family vacation trip (only a
double Hurricane one caused me to do that), yet I will frequently cancel
same-day out-and-back business trips.


--------------------
Richard Kaplan, CFII

www.flyimc.com

"Richard Kaplan" wrote
Does it mean you can fly if you are willing to deviate by 50 miles? 100
miles? 200 miles?

I would say that 90% of the time, I deviate less than 50 miles (20
minutes or less as my plane flies) total. I have had to deviate over
100 miles. I've never had to deviate 200.

Does it mean you can fly if you are willing to adjust your departure time by
an hour? 4 hours? 8 hours?

I think the longest I've ever had to adjust was close to two hours (I
won't launch into conditions I think nothing of flying through because
options are so limited on takeoff) but adjustmentst of up to 30
minutes are common.

As a general rule I find I can make most summer trips if I am willing to
adjust my flight plan either by 200 miles or by 8 hours.

And that was more or less where I was when I started using spherics.
It's just that by sheer experience, I've learned to judge the weather
and the capability of the equipment more accurately than that.

Michael

"Michael" wrote in message
om...


"Richard Kaplan" wrote

I think the longest I've ever had to adjust was close to two hours (I
won't launch into conditions I think nothing of flying through because
options are so limited on takeoff) but adjustmentst of up to 30
minutes are common.

OK so suppose you are traveling due West on a 160 nm trip from Pittsburgh PA
to Columbus OH and in between there is an occluded cold front with a 250
mile vertical line of thunderstorms associated with the front. The line of
storms includes level 3 through 5 cells and the largest break in precip
would be a circuitous path at times only 15 miles wide.

I presume you are saying you would penetrate this line based on the areas
where spherics show the least activity. Yet not all storm areas with hail
or severe turbulence will show up on spherics, not to mention that the holes
between the storms could easily close. I am not sure how I could
comfortably do this trip even with multiple sources of information, i.e.
spherics plus radar plus datalink, plus the ability to fly in the lower
flight levels up to FL230.


--------------------
Richard Kaplan, CFII

www.flyimc.com

"Richard Kaplan" wrote
OK so suppose you are traveling due West on a 160 nm trip from Pittsburgh PA
to Columbus OH and in between there is an occluded cold front with a 250
mile vertical line of thunderstorms associated with the front. The line of
storms includes level 3 through 5 cells and the largest break in precip
would be a circuitous path at times only 15 miles wide.

Well, that would be the day I would need up to a 125 nm deviation, now
wouldn't it? How often does this actually happen?

And no, spherics alone would not cut it for that kind of penetration.
In fact, in my entire flying career, I've only encountered similar
situations three times. Twice I followed another (RADAR equipped)
aircraft while also getting RADAR assistance from approach control.
In both cases, I had been maintaining a steady watch on what the
weather was doing and was confident that it wasn't going to get much
worse in the few minutes the penetration would require. The other
time this wasn't an option. Remember the one time I needed a
deviation in excess of 100 nm? Well, that was it. To be honest, I
don't even think of it as a deviation if it only adds 30 minutes to my
trip. After all, car trips and airline flights are routinely delayed
that much.

Usually, my trips are significantly longer than 160 nm (if that was
typical for me, my airplane would be overkill) and so the deviations
are less significant. Also, having my course line directly
perpendicular to the front, while not particularly rare, is still a
minority of cases.

Michael

"Michael" wrote in message
om...

Well, that would be the day I would need up to a 125 nm deviation, now
wouldn't it? How often does this actually happen?

I would say this happens about weekly in the spring or summer, sometimes
twice weekly. It is not rare at all.

Your comments about rarely flying 160nm trips are quite relevant and may
explain a difference in our perceptions -- in the Northeast it is not at all
uncommon for a 160nm trip to be 1 hour flying in a 160 knot airplane or 5
hours driving in a car due to traffic issues... granted that is not the case
for the trip from Pittsburgh to Columbus but in the NYC-Boston-DC corridor
this is quite possible. While such short trips can be extremely
convenient uses of an airplane when weather cooperates, you are correct that
there are lots fewer practical deviation options on such a short trip. This
may well be a big difference between general aviation in the Northeast vs.
in Texas.

--------------------
Richard Kaplan, CFII

www.flyimc.com

"Richard Kaplan" wrote
While such short trips can be extremely
convenient uses of an airplane when weather cooperates, you are correct that
there are lots fewer practical deviation options on such a short trip. This
may well be a big difference between general aviation in the Northeast vs.
in Texas.

I suspect you are right. There are few meaningful destinations within
160 nm of Houston - even Dallas, which is right next door by Texas
standards, is significantly farther away. My only recurring trip of
under 160 nm is Austin - it is also the trip that, proportionately,
gets the most delay time. It's a 45 minute trip for me in good
weather; in bad weather it's not particularly rare for it to take
twice that due to deviations/delays. On the other hand, it's still
over two hours by car, and that's if I'm willing to speed a lot.

Certainly deviations/delays for weather have a proportionally bigger
impact on short trips - to the point where it may not be worth it. Of
course as a result, you get less experience optimizing your deviation,
and that makes the deviation even bigger.

Michael