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TaxSrv wrote: "Bret Ludwig" wrote: The LSA will be cost-effective when 10,000 units in two or three years is a realistic goal. FAA's projection is actually for about 10,000 LSA planes in the total fleet, but flat at that level thereafter, after a few years. This includes all types of LSAs, including previous "fat ultralights" now to be in compliance. If there's a dozen or two major players to produce the planes we'd prefer -- the top end of LSA limits-- that's not much annual production for each of the players, so costs are a real factor. With FAA projection of a future flat market, what decision does an investor make to design and produce the best performing LSAs? Easy, don't get involved. On the other hand, IBM predicted the world market for computers at a two-digit figure. There are a lot of things to figure in, and I'd be crazy to say I understood any of them really well. Are the population dynamics of the nation conducive to LSA growth? Will the initial spate of fatalities in LSAs result in a onerous crackdown, the FAA washing its hands of the whole thing like the FCC did with CBs, or what? Will LSAs displace existing two seat standard category aircraft? What will happen to fuel and aluminum prices? Will other countries adopt rules conducive to these types of aircraft and create a light-lightplane industry making them far cheaper than we could? Since day one I thought LSA was a complicated solution to a simple problem and that any aircraft built with present technology meeting its requirements to be something I wouldn't particularly want. Since my idea of a good all around two seater is a T-6 (the real one, although I wouldn't turn the ersatz one down if they let me fly it with bang seats unloaded), I anm not the target market! But the fact is no one really knows. My guess is it will sell SOME number of aircraft, but that the US government will manage to throttle it back if it were unexpectedly successful. Just a SWAG. |
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