How safe is it, really?

Back_To_Flying wrote:

He is in more danger of dying in a car crash on the way to the airport.
Driving is still the most dangerous activity we humans do.

Nope, not even close.

Just remember --- a car accident is not news unless it's really
unusual. Any aircraft event is considered news by the local
media because they don't know any better.

Also plane crashes are newsworthy because something bad has happened to
"good" people. I.e., us, friends.

Let's step way back for the big picture view, drop the customary caution,
and say it: airplane people are from the top drawer of society. We are
successful enough to afford flying, smart enough to be able to learn it, and
persistent enough to see it through. If it were high school, we're in the
top 1% of the class. Not too many crack whores out on the flight line.

So, there is melodrama and entertainment value in a news tory where, for
example, a dentist and his family make a smoking hole in the ground on
Thanksgiving. A gazillion other people from all walks of life also bought
it on Thanksgiving in an untold number of mundane ways, but if it happened
to one of us, it was news.



"G.R. Patterson III" wrote in message
...


PaulH wrote:

News outlets seem to focus on small plane crashes for reasons I've
never understood.

Because if it happens frequently, it's not news. They concentrate on them
because crashes don't happen very often.

George Patterson
If a man gets into a fight 3,000 miles away from home, he *had* to
have
been looking for it.

"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
nk.net...

"Peter Duniho" wrote in message
...
high risk.

IMHO, if you and your family are not prepared to lose either you or your
husband, then you need to fix that. Whether or not he's flying, bad
things can happen, and they won't necessarily wait until the kids are
older. If you ARE prepared, then you ought to (IMHO) live life, and not
worry so much about whether what you're doing could kill you.

Pete

Good point and well put!

Mike
MU-2


Well Said Pete.

I think you also have to focus on the safety risks of different kinds of
"driving." A Sunday morning drive on a deserted country lane is quite safe.
Anywhere close to a high school at 4 pm on a school day is like Russian
roulette.

Big city freeways, when not at a standstill, are congested, high speed,
tailgating, free-for-alls. I am sure my flying in my plane is safer than my
driving on my city freeways. I have to drive about 20 miles on those
freeways to get to my airport, and always breathe a sigh of relief that the
dangerous part is over when I pull onto the airport ramp. Statistics are
relevant to me only if the sample is of people very close to people like me
taking risks like mine. It is quite possible that for many of us, our
driving is more dangerous than our flying.



"Mike Rapoport" wrote in message
ink.net...

"kontiki" wrote in message
...
Here is my opinion, for what it it worth. The safety of flying is very
dependent upon the quality of the pilot. Compared to driving a car for
example, if some nutcase headed in the opposite direction decides to
reach for his beer, your skills as a driver are not worth much.

In an airplane you are many times more likely to be a victim of your
own stupidity/carelessness/ignorance you name it. On the other hand
a cautious pilot is generally not subjected to the degree of idiocy
one experiences on the road on a daily basis. Therefore I feel flying
is safer for careful and conciencous pilots than driving.


You may feel safer but there is no evidence to support your feeling and a
lot to refute it. GA has well over 100 times the fatal accident rate of
airlines and about 10 time the fatal rate of driving. Personal flying (
as opposed to business, corporate or flight training) has an even higher
risk than the average GA rate. Even if you remove all the pilot error
accidents, personal flying is still much more dangerous than driving.

Mike
MU-2

"Dan Thompson" wrote in message
. com...
I think you also have to focus on the safety risks of different kinds of
"driving." A Sunday morning drive on a deserted country lane is quite
safe.
Anywhere close to a high school at 4 pm on a school day is like Russian
roulette.

Big city freeways, when not at a standstill, are congested, high speed,
tailgating, free-for-alls. I am sure my flying in my plane is safer than
my
driving on my city freeways. I have to drive about 20 miles on those
freeways to get to my airport, and always breathe a sigh of relief that
the
dangerous part is over when I pull onto the airport ramp. Statistics are
relevant to me only if the sample is of people very close to people like
me
taking risks like mine. It is quite possible that for many of us, our
driving is more dangerous than our flying.

You will not find any supporting evidence for your assumptions. Any way you
want to look at it GA flying is more likely to result in your death than
driving many times over. What you would find is that two lane country roads
are among the most dangerous. Two way undivided traffic allows for very
little error and even single car accidents are spectacular. Divided
multilane traffic is among the safest.

The Nall report is available on the AOPA WEB site. It makes for interesting
reading.

"Judah" wrote in message
. ..

You seem to insist that flying is inherently more dangerous than other
modes of transportation, but fail to quote any sources or relevant
statistics.

I'm with Mike on this. Flying is higher risk than gardening. That doesn't
mean we should all switch to growing tomatoes.

are caused by "pilot error". But living in the New York area, I am much
more sensitive to the fact that many accidents in high traffic areas are
caused by errors of ANOTHER driver.

Living in Boston I am sensitive to the fact that people around me drive like
maniacs. (I on the other hand am merely defensively aggressive) It still
doesn't mean flying is safer. There is virtually no trip in an airplane that
can't be made safer by car or airliner. Unless you live in Alaska, flying in
a small plane for transportation is done for benefits other than risk
reduction.

Accidents like these are not very likely in GA aircraft. I can't think of
any situation in an airborne craft when you would be 2 seconds away from
the plane in front of you. And while there are unquestionably mechanical
failures that will most likely lead to an accident in an airplane, such as
a failed engine, or failed instruments, there are also failures in

automobiles that lead to accidents. Some years back, Audi was sued because
of failures related to their accelerator and brakes that led to
fatalities.

Yet another one of the great myths invented by the plaintiff's bar. Despite
untold thousands of hours of tests, they were never able to replicate this
problem. It ruined Audi's sales here for most of a decade though. Damn shame
as they are among the most wonderfully engined machines on four wheels.

Tire blowouts can be serious. Sure an engine out is not as likely to cause
a fatality on the ground as it is on the air, but a brake failure on a car
is much worse in a car on a highway than in a plane in the air (or even on
the ground for that matter!).

Passenger cars and trucks have dual brake systems. I lost one side of the
system in an F-150 on a nice steep hill headed towards a busy intersection.
Had no trouble stopping in time. In fact still had enough brakes to drive it
to the dealership (I took it slow). I don't lose a moment's sleep on
mechanical failures in cars and I drive a middle-aged Ford Escort on which I
avoid every repair that isn't necessary to pass inspection or get rid of a
noise that might embarass me on a date.

Frankly I don't worry so much about mechanicals in my airplane either
because I don't spare a dime on maintenance of critical systems. I worry
about failure of the primary FMS, aka the pilot, aka Me. Even if I do have a
mechanical failure it's likely that the decisions I make will have a large
impact on how it turns out.

(ie: control my fate)?" And if someone doesn't understand the hows and
whys
of flying, they will believe it to be out of their control, and be afraid
of it.

The answer is education...

"It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of what he was never reasoned
into." (Jonathan Swift)

-cwk.

On 30 Nov 2004 07:50:54 -0800, (June) wrote in
: :

I need some information from people 'in the field'. My husband has
his private license and is just starting to work on his IFR for
recreational flying. He wants to buy into a plane partnership, saying
he will be saving money rather than renting.

To save money, he will have to fly about 100 hours or more annually.
Better reasons for owning an airplane are the scheduling convenience
and attention to maintenance.

We have 2 little girls. I worry for his safety as it seems there is
another small plane crash every other time you turn on the news.

Flying is inherently dangerous and unforgiving. The airman who fails
to keep constant vigil on the weather, equipment and navigation will
be at peril. Flying is serious business, and needs to be addressed
from a professional perspective.

I think he should focus on this hobby

If he views flying as a hobby, he will be a hazard to himself, his
passengers and those over whom he navigates. Flying may be
recreation, but it isn't a hobby in the usual sense. An airman's
constant adherence to all regulations and safe operating and planning
practices (as he was taught) is imperative, as is an appreciation of
his responsibility to those whose trust he has accepted. It will take
time and experience for him to appreciate that responsibility.

when the kids are older, not when he has such a young family.

Perhaps term life insurance would permit you to rest easier while your
spouse flys. Once you become comfortable with flight in General
Aviation aircraft, and you're spouse's competence in the air, you may
come to view light aviation as suitable for the whole family; many do.

Unlike a motorcycle, a pilot gets to choose his
level of risk.

LOL, Obviously you do not ride a motorcycle. I race up and down Palomar
Mountain, Ortega Highway, and many other popular Southern California sport
bike roads. Motorcycle riders definitely choose their own level of risk
every time they get onto a motorcycle. However, I do largely accept the
premise that when I am flying, the likelihood is that if I have an accident,
it will be because of my poor decision process. On the other hand, if I have
a motorcycle accident, it is more likely to be an accidental or intentional
action from another motorist.

Are you assuming that the 1.3/100k fatal accident rate applies to the type
of flying that you do?

I'll take that bate. Yes, it is one component of the statistic. The
1.3/100K is an aggregate of all types of GA flying. Divide that into
different categories of flight (mountain flying, bush flying, IMC, Night,
etc: of course being careful that categories don't share population like my
examples...) and it is very reasonable to hypothesize that the statistics
across types could be very different.

Carl