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Real stats on engine failures?



 
 
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  #1  
Old November 24th 03, 08:31 PM
Captain Wubba
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Posts: n/a
Default Real stats on engine failures?

Howdy. I was discussing with a friend of mine my concerns about flying
single-engine planes at night or in hard IFR, due to the possibility
of engine failure. My buddy is a CFI/CFII/ATP as well as an A&P, about
3500 hours, and been around airplanes for a long time, so I tend to
give credence to his experiences. He asked me how often I thought a
piston engine had an in-flight engine failure. I guestimated once
every 10,000 hours or so. He said that was *dramatically*
over-estimating the failure rate. He said that in his experience it is
at least 40,000 to 50,000 hours per in-flight engine failure. The
place where he works sometimes as a mechanic has plenty of planes come
in for overhauls and annuals, and he estimates that for every plane
that has had an engine failure before TBO, at least 20-30 make it to
TBO without any failure (which would extrapolate to a similar figure).
The flight school he teaches at has 7 Cessnas used for primary
training and rental that have flown at least 40,000 hours total in the
six years he has been there, and they have not experienced a single
engine failure.

I emailed Lycoming, and (unsurprisingly) they told me they did not
keep records about engine failure rates.

So I'd like to find out if anyone has done any objective analysis of
certificated, piston-engine failure rates in light airplanes. I have
seen all kinds of 'guesses', but little in the way of objective facts.
After analyzing NTSB accident data and comparing to annual GA
flight-hours, I'm starting to think my friend is on the right track,
but that is a relatively small sample, and has some methodologial
flaws. It's funny. I know 20,000 hour CFIs who have never had an
engine failure, and I also know 300 hour PP-ASELs who have had engine
failures.

Just for giggles, I asked 8 pilot friends/relatives if they had ever
had an engine failure. The only 'yes' was a relative who lost an
engine after takeoff on his first solo cross-country in 1958. And I
know one other pilot who had an engine failure, who I wasn't able to
talk to.

So what is it? If the engine-failure rate is one failure for every
50,000 flight hours, I'll feel much less reticent about night/IFR
single-engine flying than if it is one in 10,000 hours. Anybody have
any facts or hard data, or have any idea where I might be able to
track some down?

Thanks,

Cap
  #2  
Old November 24th 03, 08:58 PM
EDR
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

In article , Captain
Wubba wrote:

So what is it? If the engine-failure rate is one failure for every
50,000 flight hours, I'll feel much less reticent about night/IFR
single-engine flying than if it is one in 10,000 hours. Anybody have
any facts or hard data, or have any idea where I might be able to
track some down?


The real question is, "How do you determine when it it your turn?" :-)))
  #3  
Old November 24th 03, 11:42 PM
slomo
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

I have about 3000 hrs over 45 years.
Three failures which I had no contribution to (I did not precipitate the
failure).
One total power loss - carburetor malfunction - landed off airport.
One partial power loss - turbo charger induction failure
One damn near total power loss on takeoff - turbo charger failure

I've had others, but they were due to "unusual circumstances".

One complete failure of a magneto. Didn't count that as an engine failure,
but the reduction in power is sure noticeable at night.

Just to put some perspective on the equipment. Two out of the three
were in airplanes less than a year old.



In article ,
(Captain Wubba) wrote:
Howdy. I was discussing with a friend of mine my concerns about flying
single-engine planes at night or in hard IFR, due to the possibility
of engine failure. My buddy is a CFI/CFII/ATP as well as an A&P, about
3500 hours, and been around airplanes for a long time, so I tend to
give credence to his experiences. He asked me how often I thought a
piston engine had an in-flight engine failure. I guestimated once
every 10,000 hours or so. He said that was *dramatically*
over-estimating the failure rate. He said that in his experience it is
at least 40,000 to 50,000 hours per in-flight engine failure. The
place where he works sometimes as a mechanic has plenty of planes come
in for overhauls and annuals, and he estimates that for every plane
that has had an engine failure before TBO, at least 20-30 make it to
TBO without any failure (which would extrapolate to a similar figure).
The flight school he teaches at has 7 Cessnas used for primary
training and rental that have flown at least 40,000 hours total in the
six years he has been there, and they have not experienced a single
engine failure.

I emailed Lycoming, and (unsurprisingly) they told me they did not
keep records about engine failure rates.

So I'd like to find out if anyone has done any objective analysis of
certificated, piston-engine failure rates in light airplanes. I have
seen all kinds of 'guesses', but little in the way of objective facts.
After analyzing NTSB accident data and comparing to annual GA
flight-hours, I'm starting to think my friend is on the right track,
but that is a relatively small sample, and has some methodologial
flaws. It's funny. I know 20,000 hour CFIs who have never had an
engine failure, and I also know 300 hour PP-ASELs who have had engine
failures.

Just for giggles, I asked 8 pilot friends/relatives if they had ever
had an engine failure. The only 'yes' was a relative who lost an
engine after takeoff on his first solo cross-country in 1958. And I
know one other pilot who had an engine failure, who I wasn't able to
talk to.

So what is it? If the engine-failure rate is one failure for every
50,000 flight hours, I'll feel much less reticent about night/IFR
single-engine flying than if it is one in 10,000 hours. Anybody have
any facts or hard data, or have any idea where I might be able to
track some down?

Thanks,

Cap

  #4  
Old November 24th 03, 11:54 PM
Bob Gardner
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

In 7000 hours I had one engine "failure," which was just a loose hose
between the turbocharger and intake manifold. Engine didn't really fail, it
just lost boost on that side. I've had some engine anomalies, but nothing
that would meet the definition of failure. I would tend to agree that
honest-to-goodness failures are very rare when considered in the context of
total operating hours for all powered aircraft.

Bob Gardner

"Captain Wubba" wrote in message
om...
Howdy. I was discussing with a friend of mine my concerns about flying
single-engine planes at night or in hard IFR, due to the possibility
of engine failure. My buddy is a CFI/CFII/ATP as well as an A&P, about
3500 hours, and been around airplanes for a long time, so I tend to
give credence to his experiences. He asked me how often I thought a
piston engine had an in-flight engine failure. I guestimated once
every 10,000 hours or so. He said that was *dramatically*
over-estimating the failure rate. He said that in his experience it is
at least 40,000 to 50,000 hours per in-flight engine failure. The
place where he works sometimes as a mechanic has plenty of planes come
in for overhauls and annuals, and he estimates that for every plane
that has had an engine failure before TBO, at least 20-30 make it to
TBO without any failure (which would extrapolate to a similar figure).
The flight school he teaches at has 7 Cessnas used for primary
training and rental that have flown at least 40,000 hours total in the
six years he has been there, and they have not experienced a single
engine failure.

I emailed Lycoming, and (unsurprisingly) they told me they did not
keep records about engine failure rates.

So I'd like to find out if anyone has done any objective analysis of
certificated, piston-engine failure rates in light airplanes. I have
seen all kinds of 'guesses', but little in the way of objective facts.
After analyzing NTSB accident data and comparing to annual GA
flight-hours, I'm starting to think my friend is on the right track,
but that is a relatively small sample, and has some methodologial
flaws. It's funny. I know 20,000 hour CFIs who have never had an
engine failure, and I also know 300 hour PP-ASELs who have had engine
failures.

Just for giggles, I asked 8 pilot friends/relatives if they had ever
had an engine failure. The only 'yes' was a relative who lost an
engine after takeoff on his first solo cross-country in 1958. And I
know one other pilot who had an engine failure, who I wasn't able to
talk to.

So what is it? If the engine-failure rate is one failure for every
50,000 flight hours, I'll feel much less reticent about night/IFR
single-engine flying than if it is one in 10,000 hours. Anybody have
any facts or hard data, or have any idea where I might be able to
track some down?

Thanks,

Cap



  #5  
Old November 25th 03, 12:31 AM
studentpilot
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


Know a bloke well with over 15'000 hours, he has had no engine failures.
He has had however 4 self inficted engine failures, these were fuel
system failures. Mostly failure to put enough in, failure to check
for water contamination properly, failure to know the aircraft fuel
system. This blokes expirence is all single engine, going from little
Lyc's to Radial's and turbine.

Most Iv'e come across in the last 25 years aviating have had no
problems, usually if there are it's a maintaince issue or operator
induced.


--
studentpilot
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted via OziPilots Online [ http://www.OziPilotsOnline.com.au ]
- A website for Australian Pilots regardless of when, why, or what they fly -

  #6  
Old November 25th 03, 12:58 AM
Michael
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

(Captain Wubba) wrote
Howdy. I was discussing with a friend of mine my concerns about flying
single-engine planes at night or in hard IFR, due to the possibility
of engine failure. My buddy is a CFI/CFII/ATP as well as an A&P, about
3500 hours, and been around airplanes for a long time, so I tend to
give credence to his experiences. He asked me how often I thought a
piston engine had an in-flight engine failure. I guestimated once
every 10,000 hours or so. He said that was *dramatically*
over-estimating the failure rate. He said that in his experience it is
at least 40,000 to 50,000 hours per in-flight engine failure.


The only vaguely official number that I've ever seen came from a UK
accident report for a US-built twin. The UK investigators queried the
FAA on engine failure rates for the relevant engine, and the only
answer they got was that piston engines have failure rates on the
order of 1 in 1000 to 1 in 10000 hours. This is consistent with my
experience. I've had one non-fuel-related engine failure (partial,
but engine could only produce 20-30% power) in 1600+ hrs. Most people
I know with over 1500 GA hours have had an engine failure.

50,000 hours is not realistic. Excluding a few airline pilots (who
have ALL had engine failures) all my pilot friends together don't have
50,000 hours, and quite a few of them have had engine failures.

I've heard the maintenance shop thing before, but you need to realize
that most engine failures do not result in a major overhaul. Stuck
valves and cracked jugs mean that only a single jug is replaced;
failure of the carb or fuel injection system (my problem) affects only
that component. And oil loss will often seize an engine and make it
not worth overhauling.

There are no real stats on engine failures because engine
manufacturers and the FAA don't want those stats to exist. The FAA
could create those stats simply by requiring pilots to report engine
failures for other than fuel exhaustion/contamination reasons, but
will not.

The truth is, FAA certification requirements have frozen aircraft
piston engines in the past, and now they're less reliable than
automotive engines (not to mention ridiculously expensive).

Michael
  #7  
Old November 25th 03, 01:05 AM
Mike O'Malley
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

"Captain Wubba" wrote in message
om...
Howdy. I was discussing with a friend of mine my concerns about flying
single-engine planes at night or in hard IFR, due to the possibility
of engine failure. My buddy is a CFI/CFII/ATP as well as an A&P, about
3500 hours, and been around airplanes for a long time, so I tend to
give credence to his experiences. He asked me how often I thought a
piston engine had an in-flight engine failure. I guestimated once
every 10,000 hours or so. He said that was *dramatically*
over-estimating the failure rate. He said that in his experience it is


I would say the failure rate is not uniform, and would depend a lot on how the
aircraft are maintained and utilized. Ex: the large univesity flight school I
went to that flies on the order of 10,000 hours a year, has had no engine
failures in the past 10 years that weren't due to pilot error.

However, the company I towed banners for had two complete engine failures and
two partial power failures in the two 3 month seasons I worked for them. In my
1100 hours, I've had one quit on takeoff when a mag that was improperly torqued
down slipped and put the ignition way out of time, and one partial power loss
when a leaky oil control ring finally let go and fouled out one cylinder.

And be careful using NTSB data for your analysis, as not all engine failures are
cause for a report; both of mine ended with me making it home and no bent metal,
so they aren't in the database.

--
Mike


  #8  
Old November 25th 03, 01:33 AM
Ben Dover
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


"Mike O'Malley" wrote in message
...
"Captain Wubba" wrote in message
om...
Howdy. I was discussing with a friend of mine my concerns about flying
single-engine planes at night or in hard IFR, due to the possibility
of engine failure. My buddy is a CFI/CFII/ATP as well as an A&P, about
3500 hours, and been around airplanes for a long time, so I tend to
give credence to his experiences. He asked me how often I thought a
piston engine had an in-flight engine failure. I guestimated once
every 10,000 hours or so. He said that was *dramatically*
over-estimating the failure rate. He said that in his experience it is


I would say the failure rate is not uniform, and would depend a lot on how

the
aircraft are maintained and utilized. Ex: the large univesity flight

school I
went to that flies on the order of 10,000 hours a year, has had no engine
failures in the past 10 years that weren't due to pilot error.

However, the company I towed banners for had two complete engine failures

and
two partial power failures in the two 3 month seasons I worked for them.

In my
1100 hours, I've had one quit on takeoff when a mag that was improperly

torqued
down slipped and put the ignition way out of time, and one partial power

loss
when a leaky oil control ring finally let go and fouled out one cylinder.

And be careful using NTSB data for your analysis, as not all engine

failures are
cause for a report; both of mine ended with me making it home and no bent

metal,
so they aren't in the database.


I had an engine failure (sort of on landing) when a plug failed. I noticed
it after landing at Everglades City. I put on some power to turn and
backtrack and boy did the engine run rough.

I then spent a couple of hours speculating about what would have been the
result if I had screwed up the final approach and had to go around again.
The engine did not like full power. My home base runways are small than
Everglades City so it was not too bad.


  #9  
Old November 25th 03, 03:43 AM
Mike Rapoport
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

I don't have any personally but I have a friend that has had three in
3500hrs. One connecting rod failure in a 210. A crankshaft failure in an
Azetec and I forget the details of the third failure. It has been estimated
that 10% of Malibus have had inflight engine failures of some kind.

Mike
MU-2

"Captain Wubba" wrote in message
om...
Howdy. I was discussing with a friend of mine my concerns about flying
single-engine planes at night or in hard IFR, due to the possibility
of engine failure. My buddy is a CFI/CFII/ATP as well as an A&P, about
3500 hours, and been around airplanes for a long time, so I tend to
give credence to his experiences. He asked me how often I thought a
piston engine had an in-flight engine failure. I guestimated once
every 10,000 hours or so. He said that was *dramatically*
over-estimating the failure rate. He said that in his experience it is
at least 40,000 to 50,000 hours per in-flight engine failure. The
place where he works sometimes as a mechanic has plenty of planes come
in for overhauls and annuals, and he estimates that for every plane
that has had an engine failure before TBO, at least 20-30 make it to
TBO without any failure (which would extrapolate to a similar figure).
The flight school he teaches at has 7 Cessnas used for primary
training and rental that have flown at least 40,000 hours total in the
six years he has been there, and they have not experienced a single
engine failure.

I emailed Lycoming, and (unsurprisingly) they told me they did not
keep records about engine failure rates.

So I'd like to find out if anyone has done any objective analysis of
certificated, piston-engine failure rates in light airplanes. I have
seen all kinds of 'guesses', but little in the way of objective facts.
After analyzing NTSB accident data and comparing to annual GA
flight-hours, I'm starting to think my friend is on the right track,
but that is a relatively small sample, and has some methodologial
flaws. It's funny. I know 20,000 hour CFIs who have never had an
engine failure, and I also know 300 hour PP-ASELs who have had engine
failures.

Just for giggles, I asked 8 pilot friends/relatives if they had ever
had an engine failure. The only 'yes' was a relative who lost an
engine after takeoff on his first solo cross-country in 1958. And I
know one other pilot who had an engine failure, who I wasn't able to
talk to.

So what is it? If the engine-failure rate is one failure for every
50,000 flight hours, I'll feel much less reticent about night/IFR
single-engine flying than if it is one in 10,000 hours. Anybody have
any facts or hard data, or have any idea where I might be able to
track some down?

Thanks,

Cap



  #10  
Old November 25th 03, 04:22 AM
John Gaquin
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Posts: n/a
Default


"Captain Wubba" wrote in message

Anybody have
any facts or hard data,


No hard data, just a fact. Flying since '72, including 18 years of airline
flying, and I've never had a catastrophic failure of any kind, ever. Just
lucky, I guess.

JG


 




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