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"Out of fuel, out of hope: 'Help, I'm in the water'"



 
 
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  #61  
Old April 29th 05, 02:15 PM
Jay Honeck
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I wonder what would have happened if he would have called 30 minutes before
running out of gas and had the Coast Guard giving him "Flight Following"
Maybe they could have got there before the plane sank.


When I lived in Racine, WI (on the western Lake Michigan shore), there was a
huge outcry when the Coast Guard eliminated the rescue helicopter nearby, in
favor of consolidating all search & rescue operations on the east side of
the lake.

I don't remember all the particulars, but I know that the boaters in our
area were really worried, since it would add 30 (or more) minutes to any
helicopter rescue efforts. (They still had boats on the western shore, of
course.)

In this case, having a closer helicopter probably wouldn't have mattered,
but perhaps if he had followed your plan of action it might have?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"
"Jon Kraus" wrote in message
...
I
don't even know if that was a possibility. Just a thought.

Jon Kraus
PP-ASEL-IA
'79 Mooney 201

Steven P. McNicoll wrote:
"Chris" wrote in message
...

Its all speculation, the poor planning was one issue, poor execution of
his way out of the problem was the other.



Poor planning is a certainty, there was no proper execution out of this
problem.




  #62  
Old April 29th 05, 02:21 PM
Nathan Young
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On Fri, 29 Apr 2005 08:04:40 -0400, "Peter R."
wrote:

Jon Kraus wrote:

I wonder what would have happened if he would have called 30 minutes
before running out of gas and had the Coast Guard giving him "Flight
Following"


That would assume he *knew* he had only 30 minutes of fuel left.


If you listen to the ATC tapes (link posted elsewhere in this thread),
he knew he was low on fuel. He indicates that he had run one tank
dry, and only had 3-6 gallons left in the other tank.

Sure it's armchair QB'ing, but at this point, he should have been
relaying exact position and asking for the USCG chopper/ships to be
rolling.

-Nathan

  #63  
Old April 29th 05, 02:22 PM
Nathan Young
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On Fri, 29 Apr 2005 12:42:54 GMT, James Robinson
wrote:

"Steven P. McNicoll" wrote:

"Chris" wrote:

Its all speculation, the poor planning was one issue, poor execution of
his way out of the problem was the other.


Poor planning is a certainty, there was no proper execution out of this
problem.


Given the time of the accident (close to midnight) I'm curious about
where he might have dropped in for fuel along the way at that time of
night. He was visiting near Syracuse, NY, and it looks like about 575
nmi to Watertown, WI, which is near the maximum range of a Piper Archer,
obviously depending on configuration.


A westbound 575 nm is definitely outside the range of an Archer.
Eastbound might be do-able with a strong tailwind.

  #64  
Old April 29th 05, 02:24 PM
Nathan Young
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On Fri, 29 Apr 2005 04:01:28 GMT, "Dave Stadt"
wrote:


"Paul kgyy" wrote in message
roups.com...
The water temperature in Lake Michigan is still in the 40s. Lights,
flotation gear, all useless except to help them find your frozen body
unless your flotation device is a raft with a cover.


Plus we have had high winds in the area since last weekend. The lake is a
turmoil as a result.


I was downtown on Saturday night. Waves were ~4 feet, with many
crashing onto the lakeshore bike path. I wouldn't go on the beach
that night. I can't imagine being in the middle of the lake in that
situation.
  #65  
Old April 29th 05, 02:41 PM
Jay Honeck
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I was downtown on Saturday night. Waves were ~4 feet, with many
crashing onto the lakeshore bike path. I wouldn't go on the beach
that night. I can't imagine being in the middle of the lake in that
situation.


When I was a kid in Racine, WI, we would wait for high-wave days (in summer,
of course!) and go ride them on inner tubes.

Even in the hottest weather, that water would numb you in a matter of
minutes. And the waves could easily top 3 - 4 feet, after a storm.

I'm frankly surprised he survived the ditching, and was able to get out on
the wing and make a phone call. I can't imagine how dark it must have been
five miles from shore, and the terror of known and impending doom.
*shudder*
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"


  #66  
Old April 29th 05, 03:39 PM
Steven P. McNicoll
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"john smith" wrote in message
...

Lake Watch Reporting Progam is available through Flight Service.
Contact FSS prior to going feet wet.
Call FSS every 10 minutes and report as necessary (High and Dry, or
Mayday!)
Cancel Lake Watch when feet dry.
With the exception of Western Lake Erie where I can island hop within
gliding distance, I will not cross open water without using this service
or or talking to ATC.


It's actually called Lake Reporting Service, one of the Hazardous Area
Reporting Services provided by FSS. The descriptions of them are cleverly
hidden in the AIM in the Air Traffic Control chapter.

I suppose it's better than nothing, but radar coverage over southern Lake
Michigan is good and flight following is definitely superior.



  #67  
Old April 29th 05, 03:42 PM
Steven P. McNicoll
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"Nathan Young" wrote in message
...

If you listen to the ATC tapes (link posted elsewhere in this thread),
he knew he was low on fuel. He indicates that he had run one tank
dry, and only had 3-6 gallons left in the other tank.


Do you know what his position was when he indicated that?



Sure it's armchair QB'ing, but at this point, he should have been
relaying exact position and asking for the USCG chopper/ships to be
rolling.


That assumes he was able to determine his exact position. What navigational
capabilities did he have aboard?


  #68  
Old April 29th 05, 03:45 PM
Dylan Smith
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In article , Peter R. wrote:
A flight instructor with whom I spoke about this accident claims he saw a
Discovery Channel documentary that discussed a theory that the
risk-assessment part of the human brain is not fully developed until about
25 years of age. For what that's worth...


I've got less risk averse as I've got older. I was very timid as an 18
year old. These days I'll take many more personal risks! Then again, my
Dad took up motorcycle racing in his 40s, and now races in the Isle of
Man TT (a very demanding road race). So perhaps there is something
genetic in it.

On the topic of water crossing, I cannot undertake any cross country
flights without crossing (usually around 60nm of) the Irish Sea.
However, for crossing any body of water like this, I want:

1. Fuel. Enough to cross the Irish Sea *and* turn around and get back to
whichever shore I left from plus another 45 minutes. So if Ronaldsway is
fogged in (as it's prone to do) on a return trip from the UK, I can turn
around and land somewhere like Blackpool and have some loitering time.
That is the absolute minimum fuel. Leaving, I prefer to have full tanks.

2. Lifejackets that can be worn whilst PIC. There are lifejackets made
for this purpose.

3. A life raft. The Irish Sea probably isn't as cold as Lake Michigan
due to the Gulf Stream, but it's still cold enough to be a problem
especially in the winter.

4. If it's VMC, keep an eye out for boats, ships and oil platforms. If a
ditching has to be made try and ditch as close to the vessel as
possible. (Small boats are probably the best, if they see you they are
probably the most likely to be able to alter course to pick you up)

Ditching is eminently survivable (although very unpleasant) if you're
prepared. There is a study out there that shows successful egress in the
vast (at least 90%) of ditchings. If you have life jackets and rafts,
you're likely to then last long enough for the lifeboat or helicopter
to arrive. Crossing water is NOT nuts, you just have to first not be in
denial that there is a possibility of Bad Stuff Happening and a need to
ditch, and then be prepared for that eventuality. Virtually every pilot
here does it routinely.

It's interesting to note that the last few planes that have gone down
whilst making the crossing from the Isle of Man have been light twins -
one due to fuel exhaustion (the other two in the last few years were one
due to spatial disorientation in IMC and one due to pilot
incapacitation).

--
Dylan Smith, Castletown, Isle of Man
Flying: http://www.dylansmith.net
Frontier Elite Universe: http://www.alioth.net
"Maintain thine airspeed, lest the ground come up and smite thee"
  #69  
Old April 29th 05, 03:54 PM
Dylan Smith
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In article , OtisWinslow wrote:
I'm just dumbfounded that someone would make that flight. What
a sad deal.


(Note I'm pointing this at the generic 'you', not you in particular)

But it happens. No one goes out knowing they'll have an accident - even
conscientious pilots have losses of judgement. *Never* think 'That could
never happen to me' - once you do, you stop thinking about it until you
realised you hadn't been keeping track of time, and ... was the left
tank really up to the tabs? Always be on guard for dumbass mistakes YOU
might make rather than thinking "I'll never {run out of fuel|VMC into
IMC|forget to put the dipstick back in|forget to do a W&B and find the
plane with an aft CofG only after takeoff}"

--
Dylan Smith, Castletown, Isle of Man
Flying: http://www.dylansmith.net
Frontier Elite Universe: http://www.alioth.net
"Maintain thine airspeed, lest the ground come up and smite thee"
  #70  
Old April 29th 05, 03:56 PM
Dylan Smith
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In article t, Steven P. McNicoll wrote:
Whether he was short of fuel due to poor planning or due to a fuel leak is
irrelevant, the end result of fuel starvation over the lake is death.


No it's not - with proper survival gear, a ditching is eminently
survivable. Crossing the lake WITHOUT it means the result is death.

--
Dylan Smith, Castletown, Isle of Man
Flying: http://www.dylansmith.net
Frontier Elite Universe: http://www.alioth.net
"Maintain thine airspeed, lest the ground come up and smite thee"
 




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