$98 per barrel oil

Denny wrote:

A few years back, roughly 3, I said in these forums that oil would be
$100 within 5 years and I was snickered at... I now admit I was
wrong .... it is sooner...


Good call. I hope you put your money where your mouth was. I was
thinking along the same lines in '03 and invested in oil. I don't plan on
getting out anytime soon. About the only thing that will slow overall
consumption (particularly in the asia/pacific region) will be a global
recession.

John Galban=====N4BQ (PA28-180)

--
Message posted via AviationKB.com
http://www.aviationkb.com/Uwe/Forums...ation/200711/1

"Bertie the Bunyip" wrote

The violence has decreased slightly. "The current dramatic drop" thing is
Bush-ese for "we're gonna win this thing"

Numbers support the lessening violence, and they are not Bush (or anyone
else) driven propaganda.

Fact is, there have been less US and civilian deaths, country wide, for the
past month. A good number less.
--
Jim in NC

Morgans wrote:
"Gig 601XL Builder" wrDOTgiaconaATsuddenlink.net wrote

I've got some empty hanger space. But my bet is that at the first
sign of next summer you'd be heading back to the UK.

Why, just because the humidity makes the air so thick, you can slice
it with a knife? Because the air is so hot that it feels as though
you have opened the door to a blast furnace? And that is at 09:00!

Or would it be because of the cockroaches the size of silver dollars,
that can even fly, that everyone has to keep in control with
chemicals, and this holds true even for people with clean houses in
good neighborhoods?
I'm sure you have more to add to these, if you were being honest! g

09:00 HA... I laugh in your general direction try 06:00.

And yes those water-bugs do fly and we use them as a test. If you know they
fly and don't go insane you are South Arkansan. But that made me think of
soemthing. I've never seen one of them in my hanger. I wonder why?

"Montblack" wrote in
:

("kontiki" wrote)
One word: China

More words:

It's 1907 and Europe doesn't quite have a handle on the scope of what's
happening in the (industrial) U.S.

It's 2007 and the U.S. doesn't quite have a handle on the scope of what's
happening in (industrial) China.

So illuminate. What exactly is the scope of what's happening in (industrial)
China?

Jay Honeck wrote in
ups.com:

An increase of production of alternatives would only stand to drive the
price of oil even further up, based on the law of supply and demand...

This sounds backwards. Explain, please.

It's a monopolistic situation, driven by factors other than a free market,
so it works backwards.

If fewer people are buying oil, the oil companies need to increase their
price to the market in order to keep revenues and profit margins up. They
are public companies with market expectations, which further drives the
need for increased prices.

Until such time as the alternatives are readily available to the entire
general public, it will only compete for those people who can, for example,
afford to trash their 1990 Honda Accord for a brand new 2009 wok-oil
burning Honda Wokcord. Not to mention all of the existing infastructure in
homes and businesses that cannot easily or quickly be retrofit to use some
other alternative energy source.

Eventually, over time, as improvements in technology bring down the cost of
switching, the "competition" created may cause oil prices to start to drop.
However, because the oil prices are determined in a collusive manner, it is
unlikely that you will find much undercutting and price-warring that you
find in other industries when an alternative is introduced.

Even if GM or Honda or whomever were to introduce a Wok-Cord today that was
affordable and practical as an alternative to gas-powered cars, it will
take at least 10 years (and proably twice that) before the impact is
significant enough to bring the oil companies back to free-market demand
curves. Especially if the oil companies continue playing the market so well
the way they have been. All they will have to do is keep the price low
enough to reduce the incentive to switch, and then they can gouge you every
holiday to make up the difference...

If you don't believe me, why don't you own a Prius?

kontiki wrote in
:

Judah wrote:


Furthermore, it has been documented that oil companies and oil
refineries were absorbing some of the increased costs of oil when all
of this started in 04 and 05... However, it has also been documented
that oil companies have increased their profit margins substantially
since that time. San Francisco Chronicle, for example, reported in
March that oil refineries had DOUBLED their profit margins...

Obsessing with profit margins of various companies doesn't solve
any problems. That seems to be the only problem that anyone really
worries about theses days though. Pretty sad.

No, but it provides evidence to those who claim that the poor-old-oil
companies are not benefiting from the price gouging that they are so artfully
executing.

What's the solution to the problem, then?

Judah wrote:
"Montblack" wrote in
:

("kontiki" wrote)
One word: China

More words:

It's 1907 and Europe doesn't quite have a handle on the scope of what's
happening in the (industrial) U.S.

It's 2007 and the U.S. doesn't quite have a handle on the scope of what's
happening in (industrial) China.

So illuminate. What exactly is the scope of what's happening in (industrial)
China?

Well for starters, the government run banks are cutting back on providing
funding to companies selling things at a loss.

As a result nonperforming loans as a percentage of outstanding loans
are down to 35% from the 50% of a year or so ago.

The total amount of nonperforming loans has been estimated to be as
high as approximetly $1 trillion.

Expect higher costs for Chinese goods as borrowers are expected to
make profits and repay their loans in the future.

Either that, or the whole Chinese economy is going to implode on bad
debt that exceeds the GNP.

--
Jim Pennino

Remove .spam.sux to reply.

wrote in :

So illuminate. What exactly is the scope of what's happening in
(industrial) China?

Well for starters, the government run banks are cutting back on
providing funding to companies selling things at a loss.

As a result nonperforming loans as a percentage of outstanding loans
are down to 35% from the 50% of a year or so ago.

The total amount of nonperforming loans has been estimated to be as
high as approximetly $1 trillion.

Expect higher costs for Chinese goods as borrowers are expected to
make profits and repay their loans in the future.

Either that, or the whole Chinese economy is going to implode on bad
debt that exceeds the GNP.

What does the 21st century equivalent of the dot-com bust have to do with the
price of tea in... well... China?

Judah wrote:
Jay Honeck wrote in
ups.com:


An increase of production of alternatives would only stand to drive the
price of oil even further up, based on the law of supply and demand...

This sounds backwards. Explain, please.


It's a monopolistic situation, driven by factors other than a free market,
so it works backwards.

If fewer people are buying oil, the oil companies need to increase their
price to the market in order to keep revenues and profit margins up. They
are public companies with market expectations, which further drives the
need for increased prices.


Complete and utter hogwash. One merely has to watch the market reports
and every time there is a down trend in demand or an uptick in supply
the price drops. If all our cars suddenly got 10 mpg more the price of
oil and therefore gas would plummet.




If you don't believe me, why don't you own a Prius?

Why waste money on that overpriced roller skate when you can spend less
and get better gas mileage?

Judah wrote:
wrote in :

So illuminate. What exactly is the scope of what's happening in
(industrial) China?

Well for starters, the government run banks are cutting back on
providing funding to companies selling things at a loss.

As a result nonperforming loans as a percentage of outstanding loans
are down to 35% from the 50% of a year or so ago.

The total amount of nonperforming loans has been estimated to be as
high as approximetly $1 trillion.

Expect higher costs for Chinese goods as borrowers are expected to
make profits and repay their loans in the future.

Either that, or the whole Chinese economy is going to implode on bad
debt that exceeds the GNP.

What does the 21st century equivalent of the dot-com bust have to do with the
price of tea in... well... China?

The first line, your original question, i.e. "What exactly is the scope
of what's happening in (industrial) China?"

--
Jim Pennino

Remove .spam.sux to reply.