Night flying in the mountians in a cessna 150,

"Ron Garret" wrote in message
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I just did, but here it is again: if you believe that the risk of an
engine failure on any particular flight is P1 and you are willing to
accept a lifetime risk of experiencing an engine failure at no more than
P2, then you can use these two numbers and the formula for cumulative
probability to solve for N. You can then choose to stop flying after N
flights.

But making that choice is only useful, and only based on correct
information, if you make the choice prior to the first of N flights.

As I said, no one ever does that. It's absurd to base any discussion on the
idea that anyone does, and certainly on the idea that it's a common analysis
generally useful to pilots.

Pete