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#11
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Too many accidents
On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 3:44:09 PM UTC-7, sisu1a wrote:
On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 3:30:06 PM UTC-7, Ramy wrote: On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 2:44:55 PM UTC-7, Andy Blackburn wrote: This is a terrible topic to be sure so I hesitate to get analytical. Sadly, this year is not yet out of the ordinary. Over the past ten years the average number of glider accidents per year reported to the NTSB is 25.2. So far this year we are at 17 (including the tragic event over the weekend). Fatal accidents over ten years have averaged 5.2. This year we are at 6. The probable causes this year seem not inconsistent with the overall trend, though obviously we have less information about more recent accidents. The mix of aircraft type/performance has not been significantly different from a casual review. I think we tend to block bad memories out over time, but we have always paid a terrible price for our beautiful sport. Respectfully, Andy Blackburn 9B We need to count passengers as well. I counted 10 so far in the US which were mentioned on RAS: Avenal - 1 Grand Teton - 2 Arizona - 2 Vermont - 3 Truckee - 2 This is not just an anomaly. This is double the average. Also the seemingly trend of decline in fatality rate over the years is an illusion. The number of participants declining in even faster rate. Ramy Ramy Not trying to derail, but can you elaborate on the passenger thing at Avenal? I'm only aware of the one accident their from last May, which was a pilot in his personal single place. Other than that an owner in a single place (HP-14) in the 90's spun in from a rigging error. Avenal was a single pilot. so are the fatalities in Arizona and Moriarty. I mistakenly counted them both as Arizona. So the correct list is: Avenal - 1 Grand Teton - 2 (pilot + passenger) Arizona - 1 Moriarty - 1 Vermont - 3 (pilot + 2 passengers) Truckee - 2 (pilot + passenger who was also a pilot) Total 10 |
#12
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Too many accidents
On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 6:54:44 PM UTC-4, Ramy wrote:
On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 3:44:09 PM UTC-7, sisu1a wrote: On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 3:30:06 PM UTC-7, Ramy wrote: On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 2:44:55 PM UTC-7, Andy Blackburn wrote: This is a terrible topic to be sure so I hesitate to get analytical.. Sadly, this year is not yet out of the ordinary. Over the past ten years the average number of glider accidents per year reported to the NTSB is 25.2. So far this year we are at 17 (including the tragic event over the weekend). Fatal accidents over ten years have averaged 5.2. This year we are at 6. The probable causes this year seem not inconsistent with the overall trend, though obviously we have less information about more recent accidents. The mix of aircraft type/performance has not been significantly different from a casual review. I think we tend to block bad memories out over time, but we have always paid a terrible price for our beautiful sport. Respectfully, Andy Blackburn 9B We need to count passengers as well. I counted 10 so far in the US which were mentioned on RAS: Avenal - 1 Grand Teton - 2 Arizona - 2 Vermont - 3 Truckee - 2 This is not just an anomaly. This is double the average. Also the seemingly trend of decline in fatality rate over the years is an illusion. The number of participants declining in even faster rate. Ramy Ramy Not trying to derail, but can you elaborate on the passenger thing at Avenal? I'm only aware of the one accident their from last May, which was a pilot in his personal single place. Other than that an owner in a single place (HP-14) in the 90's spun in from a rigging error. Avenal was a single pilot. so are the fatalities in Arizona and Moriarty. I mistakenly counted them both as Arizona. So the correct list is: Avenal - 1 Grand Teton - 2 (pilot + passenger) Arizona - 1 Moriarty - 1 Vermont - 3 (pilot + 2 passengers) Truckee - 2 (pilot + passenger who was also a pilot) Total 10 11. One in FL. This year is off the charts. Uncomfortably aware of other events that were "this close". Evan Ludeman |
#13
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Too many accidents
It’s the “unknown reason” ones that scare me.
Arcus at Nephi?? I understand the NTSB, lawyers, slander liability, etc., but the waiting is horrible. |
#14
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Too many accidents
On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 5:30:06 PM UTC-5, Ramy wrote:
This is not just an anomaly. This is double the average. Also the seemingly trend of decline in fatality rate over the years is an illusion. The number of participants declining in even faster rate. Ramy Ramy Not to over-engage in statistical analysis, but I think the number of fatal incidents is the relevant metric, not the average number of people on board - unless you are asserting that two-seaters is a relevant factor. In this case that would be a Blanik, a 2-32 and a Duo. Hard to see a trend or pattern in that. The numbers are too high, but they are not statistically out of the historical range. Andy |
#15
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Too many accidents
Every time an aircraft leaves the ground, the potential for a fatal accident exists. There is no denying that Gravity and Aerodynamics are essentially mortal enemies. We use our hard won skills to deal with aerodynamics, but patiently and inexorably, the Law of Gravity awaits our tiniest mistake.
Since millions of flights are attempted each year, by millions of pilots, there will always be accidents. Education and ongoing training may mitigate some accidents, but statistically, they will happen more or less often, and there is simply no way to predict whether there is an increasing or decreasing trend from year to year. This has been a bad year. Next year might be worse. Or, there might be no fatalities at all. The basic rule is that no single accident directly affects the likelihood of YOU having an accident yourself. In fact, the subconscious memory of a friend who succumbed to an aircraft accident "might" make you more cognizant of your limitations. A year with no fatalities "might" make you more complacent, and encourage less than perfect cockpit performance and judgment. Think sharp at all times. Remember your friends. Learn, and don't fall into the trap that a safe year means that accidents will finally go away. They won't. We do this, hopefully, by recognizing that aviation is inherently risky, but the rewards of flight somehow make it worth the expense and effort.. Try to keep in mind that we don't NEED to do this. We do it by choice, and the desire to fly must always be tempered by things that may affect our ability to fly well. Currency, weather conditions, peer pressure, mental attitude and a myriad of other factors may suggest that, perhaps "today" should be dedicated to some neglected maintenance, maybe a wash and wax job and a reconnect to why we want to fly, as well as a reflection of the lessons we might learn from the untimely passing of our pilot brethren. Be safe my friends, but FLY! |
#16
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Too many accidents
On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 6:06:20 PM UTC-7, wrote:
Every time an aircraft leaves the ground, the potential for a fatal accident exists. There is no denying that Gravity and Aerodynamics are essentially mortal enemies. We use our hard won skills to deal with aerodynamics, but patiently and inexorably, the Law of Gravity awaits our tiniest mistake. Since millions of flights are attempted each year, by millions of pilots, there will always be accidents. Education and ongoing training may mitigate some accidents, but statistically, they will happen more or less often, and there is simply no way to predict whether there is an increasing or decreasing trend from year to year. This has been a bad year. Next year might be worse. Or, there might be no fatalities at all. The basic rule is that no single accident directly affects the likelihood of YOU having an accident yourself. In fact, the subconscious memory of a friend who succumbed to an aircraft accident "might" make you more cognizant of your limitations. A year with no fatalities "might" make you more complacent, and encourage less than perfect cockpit performance and judgment. Think sharp at all times. Remember your friends. Learn, and don't fall into the trap that a safe year means that accidents will finally go away. They won't. We do this, hopefully, by recognizing that aviation is inherently risky, but the rewards of flight somehow make it worth the expense and effort. Try to keep in mind that we don't NEED to do this. We do it by choice, and the desire to fly must always be tempered by things that may affect our ability to fly well. Currency, weather conditions, peer pressure, mental attitude and a myriad of other factors may suggest that, perhaps "today" should be dedicated to some neglected maintenance, maybe a wash and wax job and a reconnect to why we want to fly, as well as a reflection of the lessons we might learn from the untimely passing of our pilot brethren. Be safe my friends, but FLY! I have had a moment with these spat of mishaps. I am troubled by the experience/competence level of the pilots in these accidents. I knew Sergio, his energy was a gift to soaring and to the friends at Truckee. Losing commercial pilots, with their faire's, whom fly daily. I lost a good friend last week in east county of San Diego in a power airplane. He was one of those special pilots whom could just make any plane dance, a real Bob Hoover type who ran a sterile cockpit. He was a CFI taking another CFI up to do a few spins in a Citabria. Did one spin all the way to the deck. Thanks Mark, for your words of encouragement to keep flying and keep safe. |
#17
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Too many accidents
I don't think a high level of experience or competence will ever protect us against an insidious form of complacency that makes us sometimes forget the most elementary safety procedures. The slightest disturbance during the pre-flight or the checklist can make us forget to do something we allways took for granted. This summer, for the first time in almost 40 years of gliding, I took off with airbrakes unlocked. I had been disturbed during the preflight and hadn't followed my ususal checklist procedure while taking a winch launch at another airfield.
When you look at gliding accidents, it seems to me there are three kinds of pilots who are most susceptible to be involved in accidents: the very inexperienced, the ones who begin to think of themselves as being experienced, and the too experienced (look at the list in the well known Gantenbrink paper on safety)... Not much room between those three, I'm afraid. Stéphane |
#18
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Too many accidents
This is a recurring topic since the beginning of aviation. The irony is there is a well known and recognized, fundamental reason for glider (all aviation) accidents.
And that is, a demonstrable lack of knowledge. It is easy to confirm. Present a group of pilots with a written test of basic, essential knowledge needed to fly safely. I would include my favorite question: Why does an aircraft have a rudder? Some years ago, when I conducted glider CFI revalidation clinics, I presented this question to a group of about 40 glider CFIs. Not a single person got this question correct, and I would bet it is no different today. It is common for people to avoid obtaining the fundamental knowledge necessary for safe flight. Tom Knauff |
#19
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Too many accidents
On Thursday, September 6, 2018 at 10:11:09 AM UTC-4, wrote:
This is a recurring topic since the beginning of aviation. The irony is there is a well known and recognized, fundamental reason for glider (all aviation) accidents. And that is, a demonstrable lack of knowledge. It is easy to confirm. Present a group of pilots with a written test of basic, essential knowledge needed to fly safely. I would include my favorite question: Why does an aircraft have a rudder? Some years ago, when I conducted glider CFI revalidation clinics, I presented this question to a group of about 40 glider CFIs. Not a single person got this question correct, and I would bet it is no different today. It is common for people to avoid obtaining the fundamental knowledge necessary for safe flight. Tom Knauff An aircraft has a rudder for positive control about the yaw axis, of course. The primary reason we need such control is adverse yaw. Next? So Tom... are you still claiming that a glider cannot be stalled without first bringing the nose above the horizon? Just curious. Evan Ludeman (student pilot since 1986, instructor since 2015) |
#20
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Too many accidents
Actually, it appears to me that it is sort of the other way around. Last night I did an informal survey of accident data over the last 5 years, and it appears to me that inexperienced pilots rarely have fatal accidents. I could only find a couple that involved pilots with less than 1000 hours total time.
Instead, the themes that seem to jump out a - Experienced or highly experienced pilots - Older pilots (most were in their 60s or 70s) - Perhaps somewhat limited experience in make/model I think it is possible that overconfidence in the face of declining physical ability is a big contributor to fatal accidents. I don't know if this would hold up to rigorous statistical analysis. For example, the NTSB reports only total time, not total glider time. Perhaps it is just a reflection of our pilot demographic. Still, it is food for thought, especially when I look in the mirror. I'm 62 years old with 4000 hours. Lynn Alley "2KA" |
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