COVID-19 Operational Considerations

On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 3:44:17 PM UTC-4, wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 11:01:24 AM UTC-4, John Godfrey (QT) wrote:
On Tuesday, April 28, 2020 at 11:15:01 PM UTC-4, wrote:
I understand in some places usual average death rate is down. Attributed to less motor vehicle accidents, sadly probably also due to less people getting medical care as medical mistakes are one of the top causes of death in Western countries. For evidence of hinkyness in overall corvid death numbers look at the reported pneumonia death average and the recent pneumonia death average. My opinion is this is just a flu with flu like death rates give or take and all sorts of people are jumping up and down to push various agendas. None of which I care about, I just want to fly.

The assertion that this is "just a flu, with flu like death rates" and thus does not merit action is an astoundingly naive and unsophisticated opinion. Even if the death rate from Covid is as low as seasonal flu (and it might be) the difference in impact is that there is no immunity...
If there is no immunity then a vaccine won't work and we might as well get on with the dying.

How do you get from "people have no natural immunity to Covid" to "a vaccine won't work?" The whole point of a vaccine is to create immumity where there is no natural immunity.

A difference between seasonal flu and Covid is that there is some developed immunity in the population plus a vaccine for seasonal flu. Neither exists (yet) for Covid.

In other words, there is nothing to slow the spread at the moment save for "social distancing." Slowing buys time for developing mitigation methodologies, treatments, and vaccines; while not having folks dying in the street.

Geez

On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 6:42:11 PM UTC-4, John Godfrey (QT) wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 3:44:17 PM UTC-4, wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 11:01:24 AM UTC-4, John Godfrey (QT) wrote:
On Tuesday, April 28, 2020 at 11:15:01 PM UTC-4, wrote:
I understand in some places usual average death rate is down. Attributed to less motor vehicle accidents, sadly probably also due to less people getting medical care as medical mistakes are one of the top causes of death in Western countries. For evidence of hinkyness in overall corvid death numbers look at the reported pneumonia death average and the recent pneumonia death average. My opinion is this is just a flu with flu like death rates give or take and all sorts of people are jumping up and down to push various agendas. None of which I care about, I just want to fly.

The assertion that this is "just a flu, with flu like death rates" and thus does not merit action is an astoundingly naive and unsophisticated opinion. Even if the death rate from Covid is as low as seasonal flu (and it might be) the difference in impact is that there is no immunity...
If there is no immunity then a vaccine won't work and we might as well get on with the dying.

How do you get from "people have no natural immunity to Covid" to "a vaccine won't work?" The whole point of a vaccine is to create immumity where there is no natural immunity.

A difference between seasonal flu and Covid is that there is some developed immunity in the population plus a vaccine for seasonal flu. Neither exists (yet) for Covid.

In other words, there is nothing to slow the spread at the moment save for "social distancing." Slowing buys time for developing mitigation methodologies, treatments, and vaccines; while not having folks dying in the street..

Geez

Everyone is entitled to their fear. If you want to stay scared, stay scared.

I posted this on Facebook. I thin it might have a place

I would like to share with you a story from long ago and it’s about dogs and human nature.
In 1980 I was practicing Veterinary medicine in Bend Oregon when we began to hear about a new disease that was killing dogs in Australia and might be spreading around the world. It was determined to be caused by a Parvovirus that is in a class of viruses which includes feline distemper and mink enteritis. It was new “novel� so no herd immunity existed, no vaccine existed and any treatments, by default, would be experimental.
Within a few weeks of first hearing about this new disease a black Labrador was presented to my clinic with a high fever, loss of appetite, lethargy and diarrhea. We sent blood to a lab that could test the feces for the virus “antigen� and began symptomatic treatment. The dog deteriorated and developed explosive foul bloody diarrhea and died on the third day of hospitalization. The test came back a few days later and was positive for what became to be called infectious canine parvoviral enteritis which became simplified to just Parvo.
In the weeks to follow we were deluged by inquires from frightened dog owners and began to see more dogs with a similar presentation: the following year our facility treated probably about 200 dogs with the virus and the mortality was about 50 percent. The death rate did diminish significantly as our ability to treat effectively evolved.
We also began to see newborn puppies become inexplicably painful and die in a matter of hours. This was identified as myocarditis (inflammation of heart muscle) and was also caused by the Parvovirus.
At times we were overwhelmed by dogs with severe symptoms. Most had explosive diarrhea which had an unmatched vile odor and our clinic frequently smelled awful.
The two years following the arrival of Parvovirus in the U.S. were the most prosperous times for veterinarians in history. Not just from Parvovirus but many other ailments suddenly noticed by a worried population of pet owners.
It was fortuitous that the feline distemper vaccine, already in production and a close relative of canine Parvovirus, was somewhat effective in preventing Parvo and gave us a “bridge� while an canine specific vaccine was developed. Parvo has slowly faded into obscurity as herd immunity and vaccination now protect a critical mass of the canine population.
The thing is; most dogs that were exposed to Parvovirus did not show symptoms and the percentage of the dog population that actually died from the virus was much smaller still. Far more dogs were dying of heart disease or cancer or obesity than of Parvovirus but this thing was out there and you couldn’t see it It was a predator stalking your dog (and friend) with intent to kill.
Perhaps you see where I’m going with this. The corollaries are unmistakable. I will be entering my eighth decade In a few weeks and when I hear things like “your more likely to die of heart disease� or it’s no worse than the seasonal flu� I feel dismissed and disrespected while, at the same time, recognizing that some of those accusations might be true.
The mortality rate of any given event does not equate with the degree of menace that we humans feel. Jack the Ripper killed somewhere between 5 and 11 women and terrorized a nation. As many people died in two days in New York last week from Covid19 as died in the 9/11 World Trade Center incident.
Our fear of the unknown or unseen menace is brain stem level stuff and an evolutionary adaptation.
I think the American people want to be warriors in the fight against this contagion. They just need empathetic intelligent leadership . So please take care of yourself, wear a face mask in public and keep off my lawn.



Sent from my iPad

I shared this on Facebook last week and I think it might be appropriate here

Sent from my iPhone

Begin forwarded message:

From: Dale Bush
Date: April 25, 2020 at 7:18:35 PM PDT
To: Jan Cell
Subject: I would like to share with you a story from long ag



I would like to share with you a story from long ago and it’s about dogs and human nature.
In 1980 I was practicing Veterinary medicine in Bend Oregon when we began to hear about a new disease that was killing dogs in Australia and might be spreading around the world. It was determined to be caused by a Parvovirus that is in a class of viruses which includes feline distemper and mink enteritis. It was new “novel� so no herd immunity existed, no vaccine existed and any treatments, by default, would be experimental.
Within a few weeks of first hearing about this new disease a black Labrador was presented to my clinic with a high fever, loss of appetite, lethargy and diarrhea. We sent blood to a lab that could test the feces for the virus “antigen� and began symptomatic treatment. The dog deteriorated and developed explosive foul bloody diarrhea and died on the third day of hospitalization. The test came back a few days later and was positive for what became to be called infectious canine parvoviral enteritis which became simplified to just Parvo.
In the weeks to follow we were deluged by inquires from frightened dog owners and began to see more dogs with a similar presentation: the following year our facility treated probably about 200 dogs with the virus and the mortality was about 50 percent. The death rate did diminish significantly as our ability to treat effectively evolved.
We also began to see newborn puppies become inexplicably painful and die in a matter of hours. This was identified as myocarditis (inflammation of heart muscle) and was also caused by the Parvovirus.
At times we were overwhelmed by dogs with severe symptoms. Most had explosive diarrhea which had an unmatched vile odor and our clinic frequently smelled awful.
The two years following the arrival of Parvovirus in the U.S. were the most prosperous times for veterinarians in history. Not just from Parvovirus but many other ailments suddenly noticed by a worried population of pet owners.
It was fortuitous that the feline distemper vaccine, already in production and a close relative of canine Parvovirus, was somewhat effective in preventing Parvo and gave us a “bridge� while an canine specific vaccine was developed. Parvo has slowly faded into obscurity as herd immunity and vaccination now protect a critical mass of the canine population.
The thing is; most dogs that were exposed to Parvovirus did not show symptoms and the percentage of the dog population that actually died from the virus was much smaller still. Far more dogs were dying of heart disease or cancer or obesity than of Parvovirus but this thing was out there and you couldn’t see it It was a predator stalking your dog (and friend) with intent to kill.
Perhaps you see where I’m going with this. The corollaries are unmistakable. I will be entering my eighth decade In a few weeks and when I hear things like “your more likely to die of heart disease� or it’s no worse than the seasonal flu� I feel dismissed and disrespected while, at the same time, recognizing that some of those accusations might be true.
The mortality rate of any given event does not equate with the degree of menace that we humans feel. Jack the Ripper killed somewhere between 5 and 11 women and terrorized a nation. As many people died in two days in New York last week from Covid19 as died in the 9/11 World Trade Center incident.
Our fear of the unknown or unseen menace is brain stem level stuff and an evolutionary adaptation.
I think the American people want to be warriors in the fight against this contagion. They just need empathetic intelligent leadership . So please take care of yourself, wear a face mask in public and keep off my lawn.



Sent from my iPad

On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 12:52:59 AM UTC-4, wrote:
I shared this on Facebook last week and I think it might be appropriate here

Sent from my iPhone

Begin forwarded message:

From: Dale Bush
Date: April 25, 2020 at 7:18:35 PM PDT
To: Jan Cell
Subject: I would like to share with you a story from long ag



I would like to share with you a story from long ago and it’s about dogs and human nature.
In 1980 I was practicing Veterinary medicine in Bend Oregon when we began to hear about a new disease that was killing dogs in Australia and might be spreading around the world. It was determined to be caused by a Parvovirus that is in a class of viruses which includes feline distemper and mink enteritis. It was new “novel� so no herd immunity existed, no vaccine existed and any treatments, by default, would be experimental.
Within a few weeks of first hearing about this new disease a black Labrador was presented to my clinic with a high fever, loss of appetite, lethargy and diarrhea. We sent blood to a lab that could test the feces for the virus “antigen� and began symptomatic treatment. The dog deteriorated and developed explosive foul bloody diarrhea and died on the third day of hospitalization. The test came back a few days later and was positive for what became to be called infectious canine parvoviral enteritis which became simplified to just Parvo.
In the weeks to follow we were deluged by inquires from frightened dog owners and began to see more dogs with a similar presentation: the following year our facility treated probably about 200 dogs with the virus and the mortality was about 50 percent. The death rate did diminish significantly as our ability to treat effectively evolved.
We also began to see newborn puppies become inexplicably painful and die in a matter of hours. This was identified as myocarditis (inflammation of heart muscle) and was also caused by the Parvovirus.
At times we were overwhelmed by dogs with severe symptoms. Most had explosive diarrhea which had an unmatched vile odor and our clinic frequently smelled awful.
The two years following the arrival of Parvovirus in the U.S. were the most prosperous times for veterinarians in history. Not just from Parvovirus but many other ailments suddenly noticed by a worried population of pet owners.
It was fortuitous that the feline distemper vaccine, already in production and a close relative of canine Parvovirus, was somewhat effective in preventing Parvo and gave us a “bridge� while an canine specific vaccine was developed. Parvo has slowly faded into obscurity as herd immunity and vaccination now protect a critical mass of the canine population.
The thing is; most dogs that were exposed to Parvovirus did not show symptoms and the percentage of the dog population that actually died from the virus was much smaller still. Far more dogs were dying of heart disease or cancer or obesity than of Parvovirus but this thing was out there and you couldn’t see it It was a predator stalking your dog (and friend) with intent to kill.
Perhaps you see where I’m going with this. The corollaries are unmistakable. I will be entering my eighth decade In a few weeks and when I hear things like “your more likely to die of heart disease� or it’s no worse than the seasonal flu� I feel dismissed and disrespected while, at the same time, recognizing that some of those accusations might be true.
The mortality rate of any given event does not equate with the degree of menace that we humans feel. Jack the Ripper killed somewhere between 5 and 11 women and terrorized a nation. As many people died in two days in New York last week from Covid19 as died in the 9/11 World Trade Center incident.
Our fear of the unknown or unseen menace is brain stem level stuff and an evolutionary adaptation.
I think the American people want to be warriors in the fight against this contagion. They just need empathetic intelligent leadership . So please take care of yourself, wear a face mask in public and keep off my lawn.



Sent from my iPad

I'm not wearing a face mask. My body my choice. If you are afraid of people without face masks stay scared - at home.

At 19:44 29 April 2020, wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 11:01:24 AM UTC-4, John
Godfrey (QT) wrote:
On Tuesday, April 28, 2020 at 11:15:01 PM UTC-4,

wrote=
:
I understand in some places usual average death rate is down.
Attribut=
ed to less motor vehicle accidents, sadly probably also due to less
people
=
getting medical care as medical mistakes are one of the top causes
of
death=
in Western countries. For evidence of hinkyness in overall corvid
death
n=
umbers look at the reported pneumonia death average and the
recent
pneumoni=
a death average. My opinion is this is just a flu with flu like death
rate=
s give or take and all sorts of people are jumping up and down to
push
vari=
ous agendas. None of which I care about, I just want to fly.
=20
The assertion that this is "just a flu, with flu like death rates"
and
th=
us does not merit action is an astoundingly naive and
unsophisticated
opini=
on. Even if the death rate from Covid is as low as seasonal flu (and
it
mig=
ht be) the difference in impact is that there is no immunity...
If there is no immunity then a vaccine won't work and we might as
well get
=
on with the dying.

Your assessment of the situation is remarkably naive. The seven
year old next door seems to have a better grasp of reality than you
do. Covid may indeed be similar to flu but as you have stated,
currently there is no immunity. To prevent exponential infection the
only option is to not come into contact with the virus. We call that
social distancing. Why is preventing exponential infection important?
Two reasons, the first people are dying from it, the second, probably
more important, is that in some the disease causes a serious
complication which needs treatment in hospital, perhaps with critical
care. If the total number of infections increases exponentially so will
the numbers needing hospitalisation. That is the danger, our
hospitals could soon become overwhelmed to the stage where no
one can get treatment. If you cannot see the danger in that then we
are lost.
In the midst of this all you can winge about is the fact you cannot go
flying. Well, breaking news, we are all in the same boat but many of
us have the intelligence and responsibility to realise that what is
being done is necessary, to protect us all. If this does get out of
control it will be because of irresponsible people who fail to comply
with the rules, who look for loophole which allow them to exercise
their "freedom", whatever the consequences to others.
There is some serious work going on, looking for a vaccine and other
treatments, that do not involve ingesting disinfectant.
We do see that in the US you do have a problem, as you appear to
have no effective leadership. Advice as to what to do changes on a
daily, or sometimes hourly basis.

I want to fly the Vega sitting in my yard, that I have yet to fly. I
want to do it tomorrow, next week, next month and next year. I am
pretty sure that the disease will not get me tomorrow but if I, and
other responsible people do not act responsibly I may not get the
opportunity further in the future.

If you do not understand words like exponential, irresponsible and
naive please look them up in a dictionary or ask an adult to explain
them.

At 11:45 30 April 2020, Don Johnstone wrote:
At 19:44 29 April 2020, wrote:
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 11:01:24 AM UTC-4, John
Godfrey (QT) wrote:
On Tuesday, April 28, 2020 at 11:15:01 PM UTC-4,

wrote=
:
I understand in some places usual average death rate is down.
Attribut=
ed to less motor vehicle accidents, sadly probably also due to less
people
=
getting medical care as medical mistakes are one of the top causes
of
death=
in Western countries. For evidence of hinkyness in overall corvid
death
n=
umbers look at the reported pneumonia death average and the
recent
pneumoni=
a death average. My opinion is this is just a flu with flu like death
rate=
s give or take and all sorts of people are jumping up and down to
push
vari=
ous agendas. None of which I care about, I just want to fly.
=20
The assertion that this is "just a flu, with flu like death rates"
and
th=
us does not merit action is an astoundingly naive and
unsophisticated
opini=
on. Even if the death rate from Covid is as low as seasonal flu (and
it
mig=
ht be) the difference in impact is that there is no immunity...
If there is no immunity then a vaccine won't work and we might as
well get
=
on with the dying.

Your assessment of the situation is remarkably naive. The seven
year old next door seems to have a better grasp of reality than you
do. Covid may indeed be similar to flu but as you have stated,
currently there is no immunity. To prevent exponential infection the
only option is to not come into contact with the virus. We call that
social distancing. Why is preventing exponential infection important?
Two reasons, the first people are dying from it, the second, probably
more important, is that in some the disease causes a serious
complication which needs treatment in hospital, perhaps with critical
care. If the total number of infections increases exponentially so will
the numbers needing hospitalisation. That is the danger, our
hospitals could soon become overwhelmed to the stage where no
one can get treatment. If you cannot see the danger in that then we
are lost.
In the midst of this all you can winge about is the fact you cannot go
flying. Well, breaking news, we are all in the same boat but many of
us have the intelligence and responsibility to realise that what is
being done is necessary, to protect us all. If this does get out of
control it will be because of irresponsible people who fail to comply
with the rules, who look for loophole which allow them to exercise
their "freedom", whatever the consequences to others.
There is some serious work going on, looking for a vaccine and other
treatments, that do not involve ingesting disinfectant.
We do see that in the US you do have a problem, as you appear to
have no effective leadership. Advice as to what to do changes on a
daily, or sometimes hourly basis.

I want to fly the Vega sitting in my yard, that I have yet to fly. I
want to do it tomorrow, next week, next month and next year. I am
pretty sure that the disease will not get me tomorrow but if I, and
other responsible people do not act responsibly I may not get the
opportunity further in the future.

If you do not understand words like exponential, irresponsible and
naive please look them up in a dictionary or ask an adult to explain
them.


Don your wasting your time just pass his details onto those that have lost
loved ones in New York or other urban areas of the USA and let them educate
him...…….

I'm not wearing a face mask. My body my choice. If you are afraid of people without face masks stay scared - at home.

Hmmm, that's some serious bait dangling there...
Oh well, never hurts to give the personal freedom speech...

I'm all for my personal freedom. But that logically has to also mean my neighbor gets his personal freedom. Another way to say it is my rights end where my neighbor's begin. If there is a way to sort this out so both can have more rights, that would be intelligent. If there is a way to give both less rights, it would be unfortunate. If the way helps yourself but hurts others, then it is selfish. (Not sure the fourth combination is interesting here?)

Since wearing a mask is not much of a burden but potentially of great benefit in the right circumstances, the above 'no mask period' plan appears somewhere between selfish and unfortunate, depending on how widely it is applied.


On another note, last night's news included two articles actually providing useful information.


https://www.npr.org/transcripts/847755751

https://www.ryankemper.io/post/2020-...ding_lockdown/

It might be neat if our President would/could/should read section 6 of the second article?

Wearing a mask or not can be compared to wearing pants or not (with credit to the internet):


If nobody wears pants and the guy beside you on the street pees, you both get wet.

If you wear pants, you still get wet, but not as much as if you don't wear pants.

If you both wear pants, he gets wet and you are safe.

On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 10:01:17 PM UTC-7, wrote:


I'm not wearing a face mask. My body my choice. If you are afraid of people without face masks stay scared - at home.

Presenting facts to Gregg is no use. He learned all he needs to know when he earned his PHD in infectious diseases at Trump University