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Glider Fire Sale



 
 
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  #41  
Old May 9th 20, 02:37 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Posts: 173
Default Glider Fire Sale

I guess we'll need to philosophically disagree on this point. Using your logic anyone at any time can grossly over/under predict a given scenario in order to drive their desired behavior. Apply that sensationalized prediction logic to climate change, environmental pollution, deforestation, acid rain, inflation, education, natural resource depletion (specifically fossil fuels), landfills - all of which have been or are being done - and you'll find the basis for "proving" anything that will give the predictor more power, more budget, more news cycles, etc.

Nope, I'll take a well thought out, historically consistent, and mathematically sound prediction every time.

Robert


On Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 7:56:10 AM UTC-5, b4soaring wrote:
What the predictions said was "if we do nothing, something bad will happen, but only if we do nothing.

Something is then done.

Something bad doesn't happen, at least not quite so bad.

It doesn't mean the predictions were wrong, just that the worst case scenarios were prevented:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqzicvDVcKg


On Saturday, 9 May 2020 01:04:01 UTC+1, wrote:
I think in this specific case, however, Neil Ferguson has a bit of a reputation for getting it not only wrong but way wrong. For example:

He was behind research resulting in the destruction of 11 million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that 150,000 people could die.

Predicted in 2002 that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow disease in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from mad cow.

Predicted in 2005 that up to 150 million people would be killed from bird flu. Reality was that only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

Ferguson’s advice in 2009 said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the swine flu would kill 65,000 Brits. Reality was that swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.

Pretty hard to take such a guy seriously but that's exactly what happened when he said there would be 2.2 million dead in USA and 500,000 dead in UK. Oops, missed it by "that" much...

On Friday, May 8, 2020 at 2:24:00 PM UTC-5, Martin Gregorie wrote:
On Fri, 08 May 2020 10:54:56 -0700, greggballou wrote:

Nice try. Same story in the telegraph link below.

That was a general observation, not specifically about that story. The
Sun, Daily Fail and the Torygraph are not news sources I trust.

If its on BBC Radio Four or in New Scientist its probably true.

Mr Lockdown doesn't believe in your new
religion even though he created it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ve-government-
scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/

Thats a common problem with some elements of UK government and senior
civil servants: they are so far up their own arses they don't think the
rules they impose can possibly apply to themselves.

But don't make the mistake of thinking that this necessarily makes their
science invalid if they're scientists. Thats unlikely because peer review
is a fairly good way of keeping scientists honest. Mistakes and fraud
WILL be remembered. Remember Andrew Wakefield of MMR infamy? He's
thoroughly discredited these days and ignored by everybody outside the
lunatic fringe.


--
Martin | martin at
Gregorie | gregorie dot org


  #42  
Old May 9th 20, 06:46 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Posts: 478
Default Glider Fire Sale

Leave them to cower in their homes swaddled in the comfort of their humiliation masks
  #43  
Old May 9th 20, 07:44 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Jonathan St. Cloud
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Posts: 1,463
Default Glider Fire Sale

On Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 10:46:09 AM UTC-7, wrote:
Leave them to cower in their homes swaddled in the comfort of their humiliation masks


WTF? If I was new to this group I would be looking to find the group that actually discussed Recreational Aviation Soaring! Wearing a mask to keep others from breathing your germs and the germs of other is not humiliation, it is being respectful to mankind. Oh my God you should be ashamed of yourself as I am for you with such an ignoramus statement.
  #44  
Old May 10th 20, 01:50 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Posts: 1
Default Glider Fire Sale

Hi Bruce c
I have a phoebus trailerfor sail if you would like to drop me a note.
Lewis
Harris hill soaring corp.
  #45  
Old May 10th 20, 02:02 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Posts: 147
Default Glider Fire Sale

Bruce! Weirsdale club, towing out of where? Palomino? Would send you private message but don't know how.
  #46  
Old May 10th 20, 03:35 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Steve Bralla
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Posts: 38
Default Glider Fire Sale

On Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 6:37:51 AM UTC-7, wrote:
I guess we'll need to philosophically disagree on this point. Using your logic anyone at any time can grossly over/under predict a given scenario in order to drive their desired behavior. Apply that sensationalized prediction logic to climate change, environmental pollution, deforestation, acid rain, inflation, education, natural resource depletion (specifically fossil fuels), landfills - all of which have been or are being done - and you'll find the basis for "proving" anything that will give the predictor more power, more budget, more news cycles, etc.

Nope, I'll take a well thought out, historically consistent, and mathematically sound prediction every time.

Robert

I once rode in a car going 120 MPH on the freeway, without seat belts, and I didn't die or even be in an accident "proving" that driving that fast is safe and we don't need speed limit laws.
Liberate the freeways!
  #47  
Old May 10th 20, 12:40 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
John Godfrey (QT)[_2_]
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Posts: 321
Default Glider Fire Sale

On Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 8:56:10 AM UTC-4, b4soaring wrote:
What the predictions said was "if we do nothing, something bad will happen, but only if we do nothing.

Something is then done.

Something bad doesn't happen, at least not quite so bad.

It doesn't mean the predictions were wrong, just that the worst case scenarios were prevented:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqzicvDVcKg


On Saturday, 9 May 2020 01:04:01 UTC+1, wrote:
I think in this specific case, however, Neil Ferguson has a bit of a reputation for getting it not only wrong but way wrong. For example:

He was behind research resulting in the destruction of 11 million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that 150,000 people could die.

Predicted in 2002 that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow disease in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from mad cow.

Predicted in 2005 that up to 150 million people would be killed from bird flu. Reality was that only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

Ferguson’s advice in 2009 said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the swine flu would kill 65,000 Brits. Reality was that swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.

Pretty hard to take such a guy seriously but that's exactly what happened when he said there would be 2.2 million dead in USA and 500,000 dead in UK. Oops, missed it by "that" much...

On Friday, May 8, 2020 at 2:24:00 PM UTC-5, Martin Gregorie wrote:
On Fri, 08 May 2020 10:54:56 -0700, greggballou wrote:

Nice try. Same story in the telegraph link below.

That was a general observation, not specifically about that story. The
Sun, Daily Fail and the Torygraph are not news sources I trust.

If its on BBC Radio Four or in New Scientist its probably true.

Mr Lockdown doesn't believe in your new
religion even though he created it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ve-government-
scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/

Thats a common problem with some elements of UK government and senior
civil servants: they are so far up their own arses they don't think the
rules they impose can possibly apply to themselves.

But don't make the mistake of thinking that this necessarily makes their
science invalid if they're scientists. Thats unlikely because peer review
is a fairly good way of keeping scientists honest. Mistakes and fraud
WILL be remembered. Remember Andrew Wakefield of MMR infamy? He's
thoroughly discredited these days and ignored by everybody outside the
lunatic fringe.


--
Martin | martin at
Gregorie | gregorie dot org


Good video. Especially highlighting the impact of the predictions on behaviour and the subsequent lowering of bad outcome. It's too bad that some posters seem to spend a lot of time looking for consipiracy behind, under, near and inside every stone when anything impacts or their very self-centered world view.
  #48  
Old May 10th 20, 03:03 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 465
Default Glider Fire Sale

On Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 8:56:10 AM UTC-4, b4soaring wrote:
What the predictions said was "if we do nothing, something bad will happen, but only if we do nothing.

Something is then done.

Something bad doesn't happen, at least not quite so bad.

It doesn't mean the predictions were wrong, just that the worst case scenarios were prevented:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqzicvDVcKg


On Saturday, 9 May 2020 01:04:01 UTC+1, wrote:
I think in this specific case, however, Neil Ferguson has a bit of a reputation for getting it not only wrong but way wrong. For example:

He was behind research resulting in the destruction of 11 million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that 150,000 people could die.

Predicted in 2002 that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow disease in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from mad cow.

Predicted in 2005 that up to 150 million people would be killed from bird flu. Reality was that only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

Ferguson’s advice in 2009 said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the swine flu would kill 65,000 Brits. Reality was that swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.



Bingo. Just like the Y2K "bug" was not a hoax, rather it was resolved by proactive investment of billions.

Funny how many of the same people who want nothing done about pandemics are perfectly OK with trillions spent, and civil rights trampled, as long as it is perceived as a military response to a human, not natural, threat. The Soviet Union never attacked the US, does that mean those who advised to build the weapons were totally wrong?
  #49  
Old May 10th 20, 03:14 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
IADPE
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 20
Default Glider Fire Sale

It's too bad that more and more threads here end up not about soaring but instead about a small number of poster's political/ social/ epidemiological views.

Should you feel the need to expound on such things, there surely is a forum just for that somewhere.

THIS forum is about SOARING. How about we stay on task?

Now, about this fire sale? In the last two economic downturns (9/11, 2008) were prices and availability impacted that much?
  #50  
Old May 10th 20, 03:44 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 478
Default Glider Fire Sale

On Sunday, May 10, 2020 at 10:14:38 AM UTC-4, IADPE wrote:
It's too bad that more and more threads here end up not about soaring but instead about a small number of poster's political/ social/ epidemiological views.

Should you feel the need to expound on such things, there surely is a forum just for that somewhere.

THIS forum is about SOARING. How about we stay on task?

Now, about this fire sale? In the last two economic downturns (9/11, 2008) were prices and availability impacted that much?


You are on an old newsgroup on the internet, it is a wonder there is any soaring content here at all. For all the people that want soaring only content build a forum, moderate it as you see fit. Expecting exclusive content on an old newsgroup is insane. This might be last one still on topic.
 




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