Light Sport Aircraft for Private Pilots (Long)

Hi all.

I'm a current student pilot(PPSEL) and I have been reading up on the
new sport pilot/LSA stuff that has come about. My interest, like most
potential pilots, is to eventually own an aircraft, but that will be
several years down the road. However, the new Light Sport Aircraft
class caught my attention. I wanted to throw a few
observations/opinions out and get some comments.

When I was deciding to go for my certificate, the one of the things
that I weighed was the cost of aviation. Since the general pool of
pilots has been decreasing for a while, I didn't see much of a
possibility for prices to drop any time in the near future.

Generally, I see the issue as FAA certifications costs. Massive, to
say the least. Couple that with a lack of pilots to purchase
aircraft, preventing manufacturers from spreading those and other
tooling costs over a large volume.

Then I started reading up on the new sport pilot rules. I don't see a
rush of sport pilots in the near future, unless this thing gets pushed
by AOPA/EAA big time. Doubt it. I think they view it as a way to
bring ultralight pilots into the fold. However, this LSA thing
appears to have some serious promise for current private pilots.

From most of the pilots I've talked to, A LOTof their flying consists
of tooling around flying, usually involving themselves and maybe
another passenger. The quest for the $100 hamburger, etc. Hence, the
popularity of the Cenna 15X/17X and Piper 140 class airplanes. A
quick check of my local airfield showed roughly 70% in this class.

From what I am told, it seems that LSA can meet this need nicely. The
speeds are within range. It is my understanding that these aircraft
can be night and IFR certified as long as the pilot holds the
appropriate ratings. It is also my understanding that the owner could
self maintain after as little as 16 hours of training.

With the consensus standards, the initial prices for the airframes
will be much cheaper. The homebuilt companies appear to be already
chomping at the bit. I have seen some nice aircraft advertised for
much less than $80K. However, these prices are using FAA certified
engines and instruments. In the future, I would expect consensus
standard powerplants (Honda, perhaps?) and instruments. Some of the
nice homebuilt glass panels and FADEC systems may meet ASTM standards
in the near future and they cost a fraction of a G1000.

Given this, I'm pretty jazzed about this development. If things go
this way, I would expect sales of LSA's to rocket as current pilots
trade in their older, expensive to maintain A/C for newer, cheaper
ones.

Speculation: If this really takes off and the industry starts making
some money, could the FAA be pressured to expand speeds, weight limits
and # of seats. Include retracts? Maybe incorporate all
non-commercial A/C operations under the LSA rule? It may be far
fetched, but not outside the realm of possibility.

The only downside I can see is that the bottom may drop out of the
Cessna 152/172 - Piper 140 market.

And of course if Dateline runs a story about those new "dangerous
uncertified" airplanes.