Commentary: Guns of August spiked?

Commentary: Guns of August spiked?



http://www.upi.com/Emerging_Threats/...8101215458112/





WASHINGTON, July 7 (UPI) -- Is the United States heading into a deadly
confrontation with Iran? Congressman Ron Paul of Texas, the
unsuccessful maverick Republican presidential candidate, warned
millions of radio listeners this is now inevitable. He cited House
Congressional Resolution 362, lobbied hard by the American Israel
Public Affairs Committee, as a "Virtual Iran War Resolution."

Since its introduction three weeks ago, and before the weeklong July 4
break, the resolution garnered 150 cosponsors. In the Senate, sister
Resolution 580, introduced by Indiana Democrat Evan Bayh, was also
gathering momentum.



After 11 "whereas" to build a casus belli against Iran, House 362
would require a naval blockade to "prohibit the export to Iran of all
refined petroleum products, impose stringent inspection requirements
on all persons, vehicles, ships, planes, trains and cargo entering or
departing Iran." It also would ban "the international travel of all
Iranian officials not involved in negotiating the suspension of Iran's
nuclear program."





If passed by both houses, the United States would be at war with Iran
-- alone, without allies, and oil would double in price immediately to
$300 a barrel. The Bush administration has pledged it will keep the
Strait of Hormuz open and protect tankers transporting 25 percent of
the world's daily ocean-borne oil traffic through the 32-mile-wide
strait.





Tanker traffic between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman and the
Arabian Sea uses two lanes, each 2 miles wide, for inbound and
outbound ships. Iran's largest naval base, at Bandar Abbas, commands
the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz. Three islands near the
middle of the strait are under Iranian control with naval gun
emplacements and concealed missiles. U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters is
in Bahrain, farther up the Gulf.





Sinking or crippling a couple of the 50 supertankers as they pass each
other every day in the strait would not be much of a challenge for
Iranian gunners. U.S. retaliation by air would follow minutes later
from a carrier in the Gulf of Oman, but meanwhile ship-owners the
world over would ban any attempt to navigate around the shipwrecks. A
barrel of oil would quickly jump to $500 and gas would reach $12 a
gallon, a dollar less than what the Dutch already pay for their
heavily taxed gas in the Netherlands.





Iran's military chiefs warned last Saturday the Islamic Republic would
shut down the Strait of Hormuz and use "blitzkrieg" tactics in the
Gulf if it came under attack. A blockade of Iran would be an act of
war. Last January small Iranian speedboats darted in and out between
three U.S. warships sailing through the strait. Had they been suicide
boats, at least one of the U.S. vessels would have been hit, as the
USS Cole was in Aden in October 2000.





U.S. Navy denials notwithstanding, Iran's capability to close the
Persian Gulf is very real. As the fighting in Lebanon demonstrated two
years ago, Hezbollah militias deployed mobile missile launchers in
large numbers against land-based and naval targets.





Iran has purchased two types of anti-ship cruise missiles from China,
the Silkworm and the C-802, whose capabilities are similar to the
Exocet and Harpoon family of sea-skimming missiles. NATO estimates the
C-802's single shot capability at 98 percent. It was this type of
missile, also known as Yingji-82, Chinese for Eagle Strike, that
scored two direct hits on the Israeli corvette INS Hanit in 2006,
killing four and knocking it out of action.





Some 60 Chinese-made missiles are camouflaged in Iranian coastal
batteries, along with hundreds of less sophisticated but just as
lethal homemade missiles along the Iranian coast from the Gulf of Oman
through the strait and up its Persian Gulf coastline.





While the new commander of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, Vice Adm. William
Gortney, reiterated his predecessor's guarantee to keep 17 million
barrels a day passing through the strategic waterway, a congressional
resolution to blockade Iran's ports would change the correlation of
forces. Iran would see such a decision as an act of war, as any other
country would.





Cooler heads now appear to have gained the upper hand in Tehran. Talk
about talking is Iran's way of muzzling talk about war. At the United
Nations in New York, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told
reporters in subdued tones he had received a proposal from world
powers (5 plus 1, shorthand for the five permanent members of the
Security Council plus Germany) that could prompt a "new process." The
five plus 1 were hoping Iran would agree to freeze uranium enrichment
at 3,000 centrifuges for the duration of the next round of talks,
which Mottaki didn't exclude either. "The first word diplomats are
taught is compromise," he told reporters over lunch.





Mottaki also said he is "optimistic talks on his country's nuclear
program may begin based on a package of incentives offered by the
United States and other countries" and that Iran's official reply
would be forthcoming in a couple of weeks.





The softening of rhetoric was in sharp contrast to firebrand President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's threats of death and destruction against Israel.
But Mottaki explained his president's views on Israel by saying a
grave injustice had been done to the Palestinians to repair the damage
Europeans had done to themselves in World War II.





Mottaki didn't believe the Israelis or the Bush administration would
bomb Iran through January 2009. Neither Israel nor the United States
could afford to incur the wrath of the world while talks are ongoing.
With three former U.S. CENTCOM commanders on record against the
military option, it was hard to see how Israel could strike on its own
-- without shutting the Persian Gulf down.



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Stop The AIPAC sponsored "Iran War Resolution"



http://www.warwithoutend.co.uk/zone0...ic.php?t=91563







Additional about AIPAC's push for the coming war with Iran via the
following URL (be sure to access the Scott Ritter youtubes linked at
the top of the comments section as well):



AIPAC Pushing US to War with Iran for Israel:



http://neoconzionistthreat.blogspot....with-iran.html



Hedges: It's Insane to Attack Iran:



http://neoconzionistthreat.blogspot....tack-iran.html



Bob Barr: Attacking Iran Highly Irresponsible and Detrimental:



http://neoconzionistthreat.blogspot....an-highly.html



McCain's loyalty is to Israel first and foremost:



http://neoconzionistthreat.blogspot....subscribe.html