High fuel prices = buyer's market?

Anyone care to speculate on what fuel prices will do to the plane market
over the next four or five months? As prices rise do you think this will
create good opportunity for buyers? That is to say, planes placed on the
market because they can't afford to pay for fuel?

Greg

I usually keep track of what Piper Aztecs are going for and over the last 12
months I've watched a solid $20k+ fall off of late 60's and early 70's Aztec
prices. And I've also watched Piper Archer and most 2 place (even non light
sport) airplane prices continue to climb. So I think planes that are
burning 10gph or less are increasing in value and those that burn 15 gph and
more are decreasing, everything else being equal. Just an observation.

As far as the next four or five months go, I see nothing changing. The cash
contract fuel prices for upcoming months that I am offered twice per week
show a continued increase in both unleaded gasoline and diesel fuel although
refinery utilization is approaching 92% and production is finally getting
back to 4bgpd. Hurricane season then heating season will combine with world
events to keep prices high despite the increasing production.

If you have the cash, it may be a good time to buy or trade up. Someday
people will become accustomed to the high price of fuel and airplane values
will rebound.

Jim

"Greg Copeland" wrote in message
news
Anyone care to speculate on what fuel prices will do to the plane market
over the next four or five months? As prices rise do you think this will
create good opportunity for buyers? That is to say, planes placed on the
market because they can't afford to pay for fuel?

Greg

On Tue, 18 Jul 2006 20:20:59 -0500, Jim Burns wrote:

[snip]
And I've also watched Piper Archer and most 2 place (even non light
sport) airplane prices continue to climb. So I think planes that are
burning 10gph or less are increasing in value and those that burn 15 gph and
more are decreasing, everything else being equal. Just an observation.


Fine! Be a bearer of bad news. Just poke me in the eye next time.
I've been eyeing Archers for a while now so that's clearly not good news.


Greg

What have you seen in Archer values?
Two local pilots each recently purchased Archers for prices that I thought
were on the high side, then I checked other ads and recent purchases. I was
suprised to find the market that strong. I've always been a fan of the
Archer for it's all around utility and it's ability to hold it's value.
What suprises me the most is the number of older Archers listed and selling
for $75k and up.
Jim

"Greg Copeland" wrote in message
news
On Tue, 18 Jul 2006 20:20:59 -0500, Jim Burns wrote:

[snip]
And I've also watched Piper Archer and most 2 place (even non light
sport) airplane prices continue to climb. So I think planes that are
burning 10gph or less are increasing in value and those that burn 15 gph
and
more are decreasing, everything else being equal. Just an observation.


Fine! Be a bearer of bad news. Just poke me in the eye next time.
I've been eyeing Archers for a while now so that's clearly not good news.


Greg

Mooneys will be in high demand.

-Robert


Greg Copeland wrote:
Anyone care to speculate on what fuel prices will do to the plane market
over the next four or five months? As prices rise do you think this will
create good opportunity for buyers? That is to say, planes placed on the
market because they can't afford to pay for fuel?

Greg

I wouldn't dismay. The advertized prices remain high.
But look at how thick trade a plane is!! Equilibrium isn't
acheived until the sellers figure out that the supply is
really pretty high.

You will be in the driver's seat. It's never easy to sell
any plane.

Bill Hale

Greg Copeland wrote:
Anyone care to speculate on what fuel prices will do to the plane market
over the next four or five months? As prices rise do you think this will
create good opportunity for buyers? That is to say, planes placed on the
market because they can't afford to pay for fuel?

Greg

Greg Copeland wrote:
Anyone care to speculate on what fuel prices will do to the plane market
over the next four or five months? As prices rise do you think this will
create good opportunity for buyers? That is to say, planes placed on the
market because they can't afford to pay for fuel?

Yes, I will throw in my $.02.... There are a lot of planes on the
market right now and that does make it more of a buyers market,
although some LSA and two seaters are not a bargain IMHO.

One reason is that people that are marginally able to really afford
an airplane in the first place (and probably can't afford to fly much
anyway) are deciding to sell because of the higher fuel prices.
Another is the overall aging of the pilot population... a guy gets
older, flys less and finally the high prices precipitate the decision
to sell.

There are some great bargains to be had out there. Just as when world
crisis causes the stock market to tank thus opening up great bargains
for those with some cash handy, this is a great opportunity for those
with the where-with-all to take advantage of it. When things turn around
again (and they will) the LSA aircraft will not hold their current
values.

On Tue, 18 Jul 2006 20:33:15 -0500, Jim Burns wrote:

What have you seen in Archer values?
Two local pilots each recently purchased Archers for prices that I thought
were on the high side, then I checked other ads and recent purchases. I was
suprised to find the market that strong. I've always been a fan of the
Archer for it's all around utility and it's ability to hold it's value.
What suprises me the most is the number of older Archers listed and selling
for $75k and up.
Jim

"Greg Copeland" wrote in message
news
On Tue, 18 Jul 2006 20:20:59 -0500, Jim Burns wrote:

[snip]
And I've also watched Piper Archer and most 2 place (even non light
sport) airplane prices continue to climb. So I think planes that are
burning 10gph or less are increasing in value and those that burn 15 gph
and
more are decreasing, everything else being equal. Just an observation.


Fine! Be a bearer of bad news. Just poke me in the eye next time.
I've been eyeing Archers for a while now so that's clearly not good news.


Greg


I'm seeing Archers range from $70K - $90K depending on the year,
avionics...blah...blah... Over the last year, my gut seems to be saying
the price has gone up about $5k on average... To be clear, that's
strictly anecdotal and not grounded in fact. But I do agree *I think*
I've been observing and upward trend there.

Greg

Greg Copeland wrote:
Anyone care to speculate on what fuel prices will do to the plane market
over the next four or five months? As prices rise do you think this will
create good opportunity for buyers? That is to say, planes placed on the
market because they can't afford to pay for fuel?

The reality is that unless you are really skimping on the maintenance,
not planning for major expenses like engine overhaul, not hangaring,
etc., fuel is at most 30% of your expenditures - and that assumes you
own the plane outright. If you have a note, it's less. The people who
find themselves priced out because the fuel has gone up are thus the
ones who were skimping on all these other expenses and just can't
afford any increase.

So you're going to see a lot of planes that are pretty old and poorly
maintained selling for a lot less. Older gas-guzzling twins especially
- a lot of people bought those beacuse they were actually a lot cheaper
than singles (my friend bought a Baron because it was less money than
the Cherokee he really wanted, now he can't afford to fly it). Even at
a bargain price, those planes are no bargain. The people who are
really maintaining their planes can afford to pay more for gas -
they're simply not going to sell in this depressed market.

If you're looking at a well mainained and reasonably economical
airplane (something that doesn't burn much more than 15 gph) you're not
going to see any softening. The stuff that burns less than 10 gph will
probably get MORE expensive.

Michael

Just out of curiosity. What kind of income would you suspect the
average pilot has in the US? People all talk about fuel prices.... but
if you fly 100 hours/year burning 10gph and the price goes up $1 per
gallon... its $1000. Not the end of the world considering you might be
in for a rude awakening at annual time and cost way more than $1000.

Are average pilots making $50k/year? or would the number be lower? or
higher?

Just curious as to people speculations.

-dr