WAS: How safe is it, really?

"CV" wrote in message
...
Dave Stadt wrote:
The leading cause of fatal accidents is maneuvering flight at 30%. The
second leading cause is takeoff and climb at 18%. Third is weather
related

Takeoff and climb is not a cause of accident.

Perhaps you mean that 18% occur during takeoff and climb,
which is something very different than cause.

Simplistically we could claim that takeoff causes 100% of
accidents, since if you hadn't taken off there would have
been no accident. This is like claiming getting out of bed
in the morning as the cause for 100% of traffic accidents
(and aviation and most other accidents for that matter).

Cheers CV

Go read the Nall report then come back once you have educated yourself. If
you don't believe you can get killed during the takeoff and climb portion of
flight you should stay far away from airports.

Happy Dog wrote:
"zatatime" wrote in message news:

On Wed, 01 Dec 2004 03:59:48 GMT, tony roberts
wrote:


BUT:
Most light aircraft accidents are caused through continued flight into
IFR (read - don't even attempt to fly there there) weather.


To be more clear: The accidents of this type are for VFR (good
weather) pilots without training on how to effectively operate an
aircraft in IFR (bad weather) conditions.


Not just VFR pilots. Happens to a surprising number if instrument rated
pilots (flying VFR) as well. I'll try to find some stats.


Here's what you'll find...Instrument rated pilots are far more likely to
get into farming by scud running than VFR only pilots.

"Dave Stadt" wrote in message
om...
Go read the Nall report then come back once you have educated yourself.
If
you don't believe you can get killed during the takeoff and climb portion
of
flight you should stay far away from airports.

CV was simply pointing out that takeoffs and climbs are not CAUSES of
accidents. And they aren't.

I have no idea why you insist on claiming that they are, or why you insist
on berating someone that simply pointed out the fact that they are not. But
the fact remains that none of the things you described (maneuvering flight,
takeoff and climb, weather, etc.) are CAUSES of accidents.

They are certainly ways to describe categories of accidents (though,
inasmuch as they are not orthogonal, I've always felt the chosen categories
are a little odd...in what category does an accident that occurred during
maneuvering after takeoff in poor weather belong?), but they are NOT causes.

Pilot error and mechanical failure are examples of CAUSES, and they can
CAUSE an accident during any of the kinds of flight you mention.

Pete

Andrew Gideon wrote:

That statement was made during an ASF presentation I attended a while ago.
It puzzled me. Why would a IR pilot fly VFR into IMC?

I'm not sure myself, but I do remember an incident that was presented in a
safety videotape. The pilot involved intended an IFR flight from Frederick, MD
to the west. She was delayed in a business meeting and discovered when she got
to the airport that her flight plan had expired. Rather than file a new one, she
took off VFR under low ceilings intending to file in the air.

Frederick is under the control of the Baltimore ATC. The ground rises to the
west. Baltimore wouldn't clear her until they could pick her up on radar, and
you have to get pretty high for them to do that in that area. While trying to
get clearance and climbing to avoid terrain, the windshield went opaque.

She came out of the clouds in a spiral at over a 70 degree bank, recovered a few
hundred feet above the ground, and returned to Frederick to file a flight plan.

George Patterson
If a man gets into a fight 3,000 miles away from home, he *had* to have
been looking for it.

The typical aircraft accident rate is comparable to the typical
motorcycle accident rate

Comparisons like that are tricky. Is that accidents per hour, or per
mile? Those two ways would give drasticaly different answers.

But I recall a discussion of that topic in Flying mag, years ago. In
a subsequent issue, a letter to the editor from an insurance adjuster
said, "The only more dangerous way to get from point A to Point B than
by motorcycle is by being shot from a cannon."

However, there's an important difference; bikers are at the mercy of
automobile drivers, who open doors in their path, pull out in front of
them, etc. Pilots, however, are rarely killed by someone else.

So a careful, "unbold" pilot is less likely to become a statistic than
an equally careful biker.

vince norris

"G.R. Patterson III" wrote in message
...


Andrew Gideon wrote:

That statement was made during an ASF presentation I attended a while
ago.
It puzzled me. Why would a IR pilot fly VFR into IMC?

I'm not sure myself, but I do remember an incident that was presented in a
safety videotape. The pilot involved intended an IFR flight from
Frederick, MD
to the west. She was delayed in a business meeting and discovered when she
got
to the airport that her flight plan had expired. Rather than file a new
one, she
took off VFR under low ceilings intending to file in the air.

Frederick is under the control of the Baltimore ATC. The ground rises to
the
west. Baltimore wouldn't clear her until they could pick her up on radar,
and
you have to get pretty high for them to do that in that area. While trying
to
get clearance and climbing to avoid terrain, the windshield went opaque.

She came out of the clouds in a spiral at over a 70 degree bank, recovered
a few
hundred feet above the ground, and returned to Frederick to file a flight
plan.


She had originally filed a IFR flight pan, but lost control in the clouds?
Certainly the flight plan was a small part of the problem.


--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO

"Andrew Gideon" wrote in message
online.com...
C Kingsbury wrote:

On the other, it means you're much more likely to
encounter weather beyond your abilities.

What was said during the ASF presentation is that this is a problem not of
pilots under IFR encountering weather but IR pilots continuing VFR into
IMC.

Icing? T-Storms?


--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO

In article ,
Newps wrote:

BUT:
Most light aircraft accidents are caused through continued flight into
IFR (read - don't even attempt to fly there there) weather.

To be more clear: The accidents of this type are for VFR (good
weather) pilots without training on how to effectively operate an
aircraft in IFR (bad weather) conditions.

Not just VFR pilots. Happens to a surprising number if instrument rated
pilots (flying VFR) as well. I'll try to find some stats.

Here's what you'll find...Instrument rated pilots are far more likely to
get into farming by scud running than VFR only pilots.

Which has nothing to do with the rating, but rather is a result
of pilot stupidity.

--
Bob Noel

"zatatime" wrote in message
On Wed, 01 Dec 2004 05:05:47 GMT, "Dave Stadt"
On Wed, 01 Dec 2004 03:59:48 GMT, tony roberts
wrote:

BUT:
Most light aircraft accidents are caused through continued flight into
IFR (read - don't even attempt to fly there there) weather.

To be more clear: The accidents of this type are for VFR (good
weather) pilots without training on how to effectively operate an
aircraft in IFR (bad weather) conditions. For June's understanding,
these are people that only have the license your husband got first.
Since he is now working toward his instrument ticket these statistics
are greatly reduced.

Just don't want you to think that the added training he is going for
makes this far more dangerous. It will actually make him safer
overall.

I don't believe statistically IFR rated pilots have a better safety
record.
It is a false assumption.

IFR pilot's have a better safety record in IFR conditions than VFR
pilots do in IFR conditions, which is all I was trying to say. I may
not have been perfectly clear.

VFR pilots don't legally fly in IFR conditions. Your statement "To be more
clear: The accidents of this type [continued illegal flight into IMC] are
for VFR (good weather) pilots without training on how to effectively operate
an aircraft in IFR (bad weather) conditions." is quite clear and
substantially incorrect.

moo

"Newps" wrote in message
Not just VFR pilots. Happens to a surprising number if instrument rated
pilots (flying VFR) as well. I'll try to find some stats.

Here's what you'll find...Instrument rated pilots are far more likely to
get into farming by scud running than VFR only pilots.

You got stats on this? All I've seen are stats on continued flight into
IMC.

moo