Fuel Prices

Speculation is based on trends forecasting, not disasters.

Actually, that is totally wrong. Speculation right now is 1) How
damaged are the oil rigs in the gulf, no one really knows yet 2) What
is left of the infrustruction, no one really knows yet etc, etc, etc
If you actually study markets you will find that specualation is ALWAYS
there. Investors buy based on future values and speculate on anythig
that can effect price.

"Perfect Market Theory" has been debunked so many times over so many years
I'm surprised anyone still holds with it. Hell, von Mises debunked it back
in the 1920's.

Certainly misunderstood huh? Cleary, you've misundestood it. I guess
its been debunked just like evolution, right? New theories come and
go all the time, it doesn't make existing ones wrong. A more detailed
undestanding of the scientific method would make that more clear.

-Robert, MBA

Gig 601XL Builder wrote:

The best bet in a fluctuating market is to by as
little as you can while the price is high and as much as you can when it is
lower.

Most of the small airports near here have either one large fixed tank or a
tanker truck. Usually the trucks hold very little more than the minimum amount a
supplier will truck to the airport and the fixed tanks hold very little more
than a standard tanker load.

The guys with only fuel trucks are pretty much forced to fill one up when the
supplier makes a delivery. The guys with large tanks have more flexibility, but
they have to pay extra if they buy less than a full tanker.

George Patterson
Give a person a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a person to
use the Internet and he won't bother you for weeks.

"Robert M. Gary" wrote in message
oups.com...
Speculation is based on trends forecasting, not disasters.

Actually, that is totally wrong. Speculation right now is 1) How
damaged are the oil rigs in the gulf, no one really knows yet

It's hardly speculation AFTER THE FACT, other than how the market will
react; in that case, it's a FORECAST since it's based on historical data.

It's hardly speculation AFTER THE FACT, other than how the market will
react; in that case, it's a FORECAST since it's based on historical data.

I disagree, the fuels markets are always full of speculation. There is
still A LOT we don't know about the fall out of Katrina. Once that is
all know, speculation will be based on something else. Just look at the
fluctuations in the futures markets. Think of it this way. If your
neighbor knew exactly what the cost of supplying fuel was today and you
actually had knowledge of future events to come who would make the most
money in the market? You would buy fuels when you knew prices were
going up and wait when you knew prices were going down. Your neighbor
would just be reacting to current events and always one step behind the
market. The airlines have entire departments of people who's jobs are
to evaluate the fuel markets and try to gain knowledge of the markets
that others don't. At certain points they buy contracts. That's why
Southwest is doing so well right now. They are paying the lowest price
in the industry for jet-A because they bought a contract awhile back
that holds their prices until the end of the year. I was at the airport
the other day talking to a Citation driver who just paid under $3/gal
for his fuel. His company bought a contract before prices went up. Who
knows if they got lucky or were smart.

-Robert, MBA w/ a concentration in financial markets.

BTW: Just to be clear for those not familiar with financial portfolio
development.

Southwest is actually hedging their fuel contracts by buying contracts
in more liquid (i.e. tradable) commodities such as crude, etc. So,
while they may be paying market rate at any particular airport, they
are extracting income from the increased fuel prices through their
commodities contracts. So their effective rate for fuel is less,
although the credit card receipt may not reflect it. I just wanted to
clarify that.

-Robert

On Thu, 8 Sep 2005 09:40:58 -0500, "N93332"
wrote:

"Ross Richardson" wrote in message
...
We just got a new load of fuel yesterday and the price jumped from $2.94
per gallon to $3.52 per gallon for 100LL. I will have to pull the MP back
a little more.

Been 'lucky' so far! Our local strip went from $2.59 to $3 per gallon for
100LL a couple months ago. Checked the price this last Monday and it was
still at $3 when auto gas in town was selling for $3.09...

Not to worry, the 100LL will soon be above the car gas.

Where can I find an STC for putting 100LL in my car??? ;-)

Don't forget to pull the catalytic converter. Lead contaminates the
platinum catalyst.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com

-Greg B.

On Thu, 08 Sep 2005 15:49:54 GMT, Maule Driver
wrote:

It's nice if your local supply keeps the price based on what they paid
rather than what they's have to pay to replace it. Our guys are doing
the former and I thanks them.

They are the ones without much business savvy and know nothing of
economics. If prices vary greatly and they do that they won't be
around long. OTOH if it's a municipality that purchases in quantity
it doesn't matter as much if they aren't trying to make a profit.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com


Now the big question is whether to fill our private tank as soon as it
empties or wait a few weeks for the price to peak and hopefully come
down just a bit. Who has the crystal ball?

N93332 wrote:
"Ross Richardson" wrote in message
...

We just got a new load of fuel yesterday and the price jumped from $2.94
per gallon to $3.52 per gallon for 100LL. I will have to pull the MP back
a little more.


Been 'lucky' so far! Our local strip went from $2.59 to $3 per gallon for
100LL a couple months ago. Checked the price this last Monday and it was
still at $3 when auto gas in town was selling for $3.09...

Where can I find an STC for putting 100LL in my car??? ;-)

-Greg B.

"Robert M. Gary" wrote:

BTW: Just to be clear for those not familiar with financial portfolio
development.

Southwest is actually hedging their fuel contracts by buying contracts
in more liquid (i.e. tradable) commodities such as crude, etc. So,
while they may be paying market rate at any particular airport, they
are extracting income from the increased fuel prices through their
commodities contracts. So their effective rate for fuel is less,
although the credit card receipt may not reflect it. I just wanted to
clarify that.

Jeez; the older I get, the more I realize how hard it is to get ALL the
facts about anything.

Thanks for the inside dope, Robert.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

"Robert M. Gary" wrote in message
ups.com...

It's hardly speculation AFTER THE FACT, other than how the market will
react; in that case, it's a FORECAST since it's based on historical
data.

I disagree, the fuels markets are always full of speculation.

Non-sequitur.

There is
still A LOT we don't know about the fall out of Katrina.

Of course; we don't know the future, but that doesn't mena we can't abstract
from similar occurances in the past. That's still not speculation.


Once that is
all know, speculation will be based on something else. Just look at the
fluctuations in the futures markets.

Geez...they don't do market analysis, ala fellows like Martin Zweig?


Think of it this way. If your
neighbor knew exactly what the cost of supplying fuel was today and you
actually had knowledge of future events to come who would make the most
money in the market?

Oh, don't go down that loony "perfect market information" rathole.

You would buy fuels when you knew prices were
going up and wait when you knew prices were going down. Your neighbor
would just be reacting to current events and always one step behind the
market. The airlines have entire departments of people who's jobs are
to evaluate the fuel markets and try to gain knowledge of the markets
that others don't. At certain points they buy contracts. That's why
Southwest is doing so well right now. They are paying the lowest price
in the industry for jet-A because they bought a contract awhile back
that holds their prices until the end of the year. I was at the airport
the other day talking to a Citation driver who just paid under $3/gal
for his fuel. His company bought a contract before prices went up. Who
knows if they got lucky or were smart.

-Robert, MBA w/ a concentration in financial markets.

And you still haven't made a joint assessment from analysis - speculation
(wild assed guess).


--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO

"Robert M. Gary" wrote in message
ups.com...
BTW: Just to be clear for those not familiar with financial portfolio
development.

Southwest is actually hedging their fuel contracts by buying contracts
in more liquid (i.e. tradable) commodities such as crude, etc. So,
while they may be paying market rate at any particular airport, they
are extracting income from the increased fuel prices through their
commodities contracts. So their effective rate for fuel is less,
although the credit card receipt may not reflect it. I just wanted to
clarify that.

And they positioning themselves for fuel savings/availability, or just
playing the markets with extra cash they have laying around?


--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO