How much longer?

On Apr 5, 12:47 pm, "Jay Honeck" wrote:
With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much more
will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price point
will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we paid
$5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid over
$300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? Anyone care
to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?

In my case, I rent a nice, fairly new Australian "ultralight" (really
an LSA) for about $110 an hour. It burns just over 4 gallons/hour of
premium autogas, so if the price of fuel doubled, I'd only be out
another 20 dollars. In the scheme of things that isn't very much. A
full tank of fuel costs about $140 for over 6 hours of flight time.

When I tried going for my PPL I was paying $250 an hour for a clapped
out 172. I have no idea how people can justify the extra cost of GA in
Australia. Paying almost a weeks wages for a long cross country gets
old really fast.

Cheers,

Al

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message
news:6LBJj.53005$TT4.41626@attbi_s22...
With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price
point will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we
paid $5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid
over $300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must
gas go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? Anyone
care to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Over my ~13 years in aviation, fuel prices have increased by about 100%.
That's about 5.5% a year, against everything else which is inflating at ~3%
a year. Much of the run-up on fuel prices is due to currency fluctuations,
which have added something like a dollar to your cost of avgas. Most of
that currency fluctuation (devaluation of the dollar) is a recent
development. Take that out of the equation, and gas is no more expensive
today (inflation adjusted) than it was 13 years ago.

What does that mean? Unless we get our fiscal policies cleaned up, prices
on imported products (i.e. avgas) will continue to increase faster than
domestic products. Add that to the increasing energy demand in China and
India, which will add to inflationary pressures on fuel, and gasoline ain't
gonna be cheap.

When will it run people out of the air? Dunno, but the losses start at the
margins. How many ratty Cherokees and C-150's do you see buzzing around
these days? Not as many as you used to. IMO, those people may have been the
first victims. Light twins have taken a big hit in value (and flying time),
which is a function of fuel cost. Similarly, I'm starting to see good deals
on aircraft that have historically held their value well, like Commanches.
It takes a lot of gas to run a 250 hp engine.

Cirrus is doing well, as are several new aircraft manufacturers. If a
customer can afford a $350k airplane, s/he can afford the fuel for it. The
RV's are doing OK too. If you have $80-100k to invest over a 4 year build
period, you obviously have significant disposable income and when the
airplane is finished, you spend the bucks on flying rather than building.

To answer your question, though, smaller, cleaner airframes (RV's, LSA's,
etc) will continue to make flying affordable for the weekend flyer if the
weekend flyers' mission is 2 people and 50 pounds of baggage. BUT, it will
become expensive to carry around too much airframe - buzzing two people
around for hamburgers in a draggy airframe with a big engine isn't the wave
of the future...

KB

Just look at Cirrus's order book as one indication: Are people buying the
SR20, with an engine that consumes less fuel? Nope, they are buying the
SR22, with a gas guzzler. Ergo: No problem yet, in the good ole USofA.
Bigger is still better.

This is an interesting phenomenon. Cirrus is still apparently finding
enough wealthy pilots to prosper -- from where I know not. I'm extremely
happy for them, however. As long as there are Cirrus' being cranked out,
GA is still in good shape.

Unfortunately, I think the vast majority of pilots on America are closer to
my demographic, small business owners flying around in 35 year old planes
who are being squeezed by energy prices on all sides.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Over my ~13 years in aviation, fuel prices have increased by about 100%.
That's about 5.5% a year, against everything else which is inflating at
~3% a year. Much of the run-up on fuel prices is due to currency
fluctuations, which have added something like a dollar to your cost of
avgas. Most of that currency fluctuation (devaluation of the dollar) is a
recent development. Take that out of the equation, and gas is no more
expensive today (inflation adjusted) than it was 13 years ago.

Yeah, I know all that -- but in real life you can't take that out of the
equation. Our dollar is in the dumpster, and we're all getting the pinch
because of it.

When will it run people out of the air? Dunno, but the losses start at
the margins. How many ratty Cherokees and C-150's do you see buzzing
around these days? Not as many as you used to. IMO, those people may have
been the first victims.

Yep. The beaters are still on the field, but I don't see them fly anymore.
My A&P says that he's seeing an awful lot of planes coming in for annual
inspections with few -- or even NO -- hours since last year. There are an
awful lot of owners hanging on by their fingernails.

Light twins have taken a big hit in value (and flying time), which is a
function of fuel cost.

I only know one private party still flying a twin, and most of the charters
have switched to turbines. Just a few years ago, they were all over the
airport.

Similarly, I'm starting to see good deals on aircraft that have
historically held their value well, like Commanches. It takes a lot of gas
to run a 250 hp engine.

Yep, our O-540-powered Pathfinder has taken a significant hit in value. Of
course, almost all aircraft have. It's really a buyer's market out there
right now.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

buttman wrote in
:

On Apr 4, 8:47*pm, "Jay Honeck" wrote:
With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How
much mor
e
will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? * At what price
point

will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago,
we pai
d
$5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. *Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid
over

$300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and
there appears to be no end in sight. *So the question is: How much
higher must
gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? *
Anyone c
are
to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

I'm not an economist, but it seems with the increase in demand for
alternatively fueled cars, (hybrids, hydrogen powered, etc), the
demand for fuel will go way down, bring the price down with it.
Additionally, once the auto industry completely converts to hydrogen
(or whatever fuel type comes out on top), that technology will trickle
into aircraft engines.



God you#re an idiot. Where wil the hydrogen come from fjukktard?


Bertie

Jay Honeck wrote:

Yep, our O-540-powered Pathfinder has taken a significant hit in
value. Of course, almost all aircraft have. It's really a buyer's
market out there right now.

Yes, I know. :-)

I've been wanting to buy an airplane since selling my 50% 182
partnership back in 1999 when my company nearly went bust, but the cost
was just too high given one kid in college, myself in graduate school
and another not far from college.

However, I've been looking at 182RGs (I want to finish my commercial)
and the prices have dropped dramatically the last couple of years.
There is one nearby me that was advertised for $95K a year ago, dropped
to 86K a few months ago and I just saw a new add for it at $77K! 77 is
my graduation year so maybe this is a sign! :-) Then again, I like the
number 70 also and I suspect by mid-summer when the recession is
officially declared, the price may get to that.

I came very close to buying an Arrow last winter, but the owner is
asking way above Vref and so far refuses to deal so that one likely
won't happen. It is more nicely equipped than the 182 (the 182 has a
high time engine and no GPS, but has LORAN, a FD, S-TEC 60 AP and other
goodies). I prefer the 182 for the additional interior room, extra
door, extra speed, range, useful load and high wing, but the Arrow would
be more economical to operate and I believe the gear is less troublesome
than the Cessna singles and it really is a very nice Arrow inside and
out. But $98K for a 77 Arrow is just way above market at present and I
really don't think the market for GA singles is ever going to return so
paying above market today is almost certainly money thrown away. Fuel
cost and future availability and the constant advance of regulations is
slowing dooming GA (low-end anyway) to the same fate as Europe.

Matt

Jay,

This is an interesting phenomenon.


Isn't it?

I'm not so sure, however, that even you aren't part of the phenomenon -
no offense meant or implied, just making a non-judgmental observation.
After all, how many of those 235 horses your Dakota (?) has do you
really need? Wouldn't an Archer do 99 percent of your missions? And
with a much lower fuel bill?

How many US pilots are there complaining about all the fuel their Bo or
210 or even 182 uses? Well, I got news: Those are BIG airplanes with
BIG engines.

I live in the land of 13 USD per gallon Avgas - and I KNOW I could not
feed 550 or even 520 cubic inches. That's why I fly a Tobago at 115
knots and not a Trinidad at 150. And that's why I am in a 4-person
partnership. Single ownership in Germany? Forget it!

--
Thomas Borchert (EDDH)

I'm still paying more in Canada. When our dollar climbed up, prices
didn't lower either.

Forget the cost, full steam ahead!

John

Jay Honeck wrote:

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much more
will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price point
will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we paid
$5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid over
$300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? Anyone care
to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?

Al Borowski wrote:
On Apr 5, 12:47 pm, "Jay Honeck" wrote:

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much more
will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price point
will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we paid
$5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid over
$300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? Anyone care
to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?


In my case, I rent a nice, fairly new Australian "ultralight" (really
an LSA) for about $110 an hour. It burns just over 4 gallons/hour of
premium autogas, so if the price of fuel doubled, I'd only be out
another 20 dollars. In the scheme of things that isn't very much. A
full tank of fuel costs about $140 for over 6 hours of flight time.

When I tried going for my PPL I was paying $250 an hour for a clapped
out 172. I have no idea how people can justify the extra cost of GA in
Australia. Paying almost a weeks wages for a long cross country gets
old really fast.

Cheers,

Al
I know the feeling. I fly GA, in Cessnas and Pipers here in the US. When
I go to Australia I fly in a sportstar (LSA) as this is what I can
afford over there.

James.

On Apr 4, 11:40 pm, "Peter Dohm" wrote:
"Morgans" wrote in message

...



"Jay Honeck" wrote

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price
point will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

So the question is: How much higher must gas go up before *you* hang up
your headphones for the last time? Anyone care to predict what year the
last personal flights will occur in America?

No, there will always be some that have enough money, but the question is
more like, how long will it be until the number of active pilots is cut in
half, and then, half again?

The trend will be to see STC's to convert more and more engines to lower
compression cylinders and pistons, to allow engines to burn auto gas, I
think.

That, and cleaner, slicker airframes will allow them to fly more miles to
the gallon. Look at some of the RV's that get something like 25 miles to
the gallon, of auto gas. Also, the continuing trend to the small LSA
airframes, or the likes of them, perhaps not LSA, but the same size, and
faster.

Still, the classics will still fly, many only as show items, like classic
hot rods that only go out to go to shows.

I do fear, as you, that gas prices will continue to price more and more
people out of the ability to continue flying. I hope a solution to switch
nearly everything to a more affordable fuel is made available, and soon.
--
Jim in NC

The fact is that, even though it does have me priced out for the moment,
this really is cyclical. The US dollar is currently depressed, which
contributes to the problem. In addition, for most of the past forty years,
crude oil has been the inflation leader--oil prices ratchet up and
eventually stabilize, and then the rest of the economy catches up. This
time, we had the housing bubble as well, so there are (at least) two highly
inflated segments for the rest of the economy to emulate.

I don't especially like it, and as the financial ads always say "past
performance is not a guarantee of future results"; but the past is still the
best indicator that we have available.

In other words, so long as tax rates are indexed for inflation, aviation
will be as affordable in a few years as it was a few years ago.


I used to hold the same optimistic view that things always get better
after they get worse. But the economy doesn't move ahead or catch up
just because it has done so in the past. The economy is driven by
people who are healthy, innovative and are adventurous. I am concerned
that we have been on a precipitous decline in all these areas for some
time now. The old C-152 does not carry two adults anymore. Overweight
is normal, and obese is now overweight. Diabetes is a household word.
Children are growing up with all kinds of problems, drugs and crime
being the least of them. I work in education, and in recent years I
have graduated many people with doctorate and masters degrees in high-
tech areas whom I would consider frighteningly incompetent. These are
the people who go on to become scientific advisers to governments and
other organizations where they make decisions that affects everyone in
the world. I am not the least bit surprised that we have made many
stupid and dangerous decisions in the past. The energy crisis should
not have come as a surprise to any one. The reason for our low dollar
is the national debt, but we are doing nothing to fix that problem.
That could be offset if there were lots of innovation and a healthy
population. But a mounting debt combined with obesity and declining
health looks like a bad combination for a bright future. I am afraid
that the party might be coming to an end. But for the sake of my
children, I hope I am wrong and you are right.