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Weather forecasting experts at SSA Convention



 
 
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  #1  
Old February 10th 16, 01:45 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
SF
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Default Weather forecasting experts at SSA Convention

I checked, both of these guys live more than 100 miles away from Greenville, that makes them experts by definition.

Seriously, these guys really know their stuff. And they actually do try to predict the future on a regular basis, I'll make sure they go to the Future of racing session to help out.

www.ssaconvention.org


TOPIC: "Weather-to-Fly Revisited" Dan Gudgel 2/18/2016, 10:00 - 10:45 AM

As soaring meteorology forecasting has become more sophisticated with the use of numerous computer algorithms and computer modeling, there still exists a need for soaring pilots to intuitively understand the basic meteorological lift processes that enable soaring flight to better understand what computer modeling is offering the community. Utilizing diagrams, pictures, and narrative descriptions, Dan Gudgel will present aspects of atmospheric lift mechanisms. The information presented will be useful as an introduction for new soaring pilots but yet still provide a review of the concepts for experienced pilots and flight instructors.

Dan has been around aviation his entire life in varying capacities in aerial application, flight instruction, air charter, and a glider tow-pilot. He has been a Certificated Glider Pilot since 1984, holds a Glider Flight Instructor Certificate (among other instructor certificates), and is an FAA Designated Pilot Examiner for the Glider Category based in Central California, accumulating over 6500 hours in various categories of aircraft.

As a professional meteorologist with the National Weather Service, he has served as a contest meteorologist for local, regional, national, and international soaring events including two World Gliding Championships since 1979. Continuing to fly and do contract meteorology work, Dan also contributes weather-related material within an informative series entitled "Weather-to-Fly" in SOARING Magazine.

TOPIC: "Practical Use of the Newest Meteorological Models" Walt Rogers
2/19/2016 9:00 - 9:45AM

Walter Rogers is a retired NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) forecaster, glider contest pilot, and soaring weather forecast "guru." He served with NWS for over 42 years, retiring from managing the Los Angeles ARTCC (FAA) Center Weather Service Unit in 2010.

Key expertise is in providing tailored aviation weather briefing support for special projects which have included: Voyager "Around The World" meteorologist team 1986, World Gliding Championships 1983, 1991, 2012, Perlan Steve Fossett altitude record 2004-2005, and numerous U.S. Regional National soaring contests. He is an active Discus 2A contest pilot ìWXî with over 4,000 hours total time. Competition wins include nine U.S. Regional championships and the 2008 Western Baron Hilton Cup.

He currently resides in Palmdale, California.

SF
  #2  
Old February 10th 16, 05:45 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
JS
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Default Weather forecasting experts at SSA Convention

Hopefully this will be a wake-up call for XC Skies, which, while "cashing the checks", has not lived up to expectations/promises lately.
Jim
  #3  
Old February 10th 16, 01:38 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
joesimmers[_2_]
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Default Weather forecasting experts at SSA Convention

It is a real shame this will not be taped and made available for the benefit
and education of the gliding community.

Anyone with a cell phone could tape it and post on youtube, but now only a select few with money and time to travel will get to benefit.
  #4  
Old February 10th 16, 10:10 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
WaltWX[_2_]
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Default Weather forecasting experts at SSA Convention

Scott,

Dan Gudgel and I have discussed the focus of our presentations. He will emphasize basically meteorology and how to understand the concepts for soaring forecasting. I will focus on a more technical discussion on how to use specific software tools... like NOAA ESRLs Interactive Skew-T, BUFKIT, RAOB.com and IDV. I will also have a segment on "Weather in the Cockpit" ... what's in store for the future that might be useful for glider pilots.
My slides presentation will independently be posted (working hard on them now...) including several video demos on how to use each of these applications. I might try to capture the live presentation via an Iphone from the podium. The quality may not be great... but at least you'll hear what I had to say.

This is what will be published in the SSA Convention program:

__________________________________________________ ____________________________

SSA Convention 2016 Presentation

TOPIC: "Practical Use of the Newest Meteorological Models and Visualization Tools"


Thermal forecasts from boundary layer information in the latest high resolution models such as the HRRR can easily be visualized with the right software tools. Better yet, the data is freely available in the United States. This presentation will review the use of four applications for plotting thermal height and other sounding information: 1) Skew-T viewer from NOAA 2) RAOB - a commercial application 3) BUFKIT - freely available model sounding viewer 4) IDV - a flexible open source tool for 2D and 3D visualizing of the atmosphere with examples from the HRRR model geo-referenced for soaring. Additional comments will be made on future enhancements to NOAA models, satellite (GOES-R) imagery and what this might mean for contest operations including "weather in the cockpit".

Walter Rogers is a retired NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) forecaster, glider contest pilot, and soaring weather forecast "guru." He served with NWS for over 42 years retiring in 2010. Walt has provided forecasting support for numerous regional, national and world gliding/aviation events including: Voyager "Around The World" meteorologist team 1986, World Gliding Championships 1983, 1991, 2012, Perlan Steve Fossett altitude record 2004-2005.

He is an active Discus 2A contest pilot "WX" with over 4000 hours total time. Competition wins include nine U.S. Regional championships and the 2008 Western Baron Hilton Cup. Mr. Rogers currently resides in Palmdale, California.

  #5  
Old February 10th 16, 10:35 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Charlie M. (UH & 002 owner/pilot)
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Default Weather forecasting experts at SSA Convention

On Wednesday, February 10, 2016 at 4:10:40 PM UTC-5, WaltWX wrote:
Scott,

Dan Gudgel and I have discussed the focus of our presentations. He will emphasize basically meteorology and how to understand the concepts for soaring forecasting. I will focus on a more technical discussion on how to use specific software tools... like NOAA ESRLs Interactive Skew-T, BUFKIT, RAOB.com and IDV. I will also have a segment on "Weather in the Cockpit" ... what's in store for the future that might be useful for glider pilots.
My slides presentation will independently be posted (working hard on them now...) including several video demos on how to use each of these applications. I might try to capture the live presentation via an Iphone from the podium. The quality may not be great... but at least you'll hear what I had to say.

This is what will be published in the SSA Convention program:

__________________________________________________ ____________________________

SSA Convention 2016 Presentation

TOPIC: "Practical Use of the Newest Meteorological Models and Visualization Tools"


Thermal forecasts from boundary layer information in the latest high resolution models such as the HRRR can easily be visualized with the right software tools. Better yet, the data is freely available in the United States. This presentation will review the use of four applications for plotting thermal height and other sounding information: 1) Skew-T viewer from NOAA 2) RAOB - a commercial application 3) BUFKIT - freely available model sounding viewer 4) IDV - a flexible open source tool for 2D and 3D visualizing of the atmosphere with examples from the HRRR model geo-referenced for soaring.. Additional comments will be made on future enhancements to NOAA models, satellite (GOES-R) imagery and what this might mean for contest operations including "weather in the cockpit".

Walter Rogers is a retired NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) forecaster, glider contest pilot, and soaring weather forecast "guru." He served with NWS for over 42 years retiring in 2010. Walt has provided forecasting support for numerous regional, national and world gliding/aviation events including: Voyager "Around The World" meteorologist team 1986, World Gliding Championships 1983, 1991, 2012, Perlan Steve Fossett altitude record 2004-2005..

He is an active Discus 2A contest pilot "WX" with over 4000 hours total time. Competition wins include nine U.S. Regional championships and the 2008 Western Baron Hilton Cup. Mr. Rogers currently resides in Palmdale, California.


For Walt and/or Dan, a small suggestion (if not already thought of), at least for a "Skew-T", how about showing a few graphs to show, "good day, bad day, so-so day" and why.
If one were to look at them all the time, a quick glance gives a lot of info.
For those (like myself) where we don't look at them as much, it takes a bit more thinking to figure them out.

Any info from either of you is great, sorry I won't be there.
  #6  
Old February 13th 16, 12:53 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
SF
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Default Weather forecasting experts at SSA Convention

Like most things, reading a Skew-T isn't that hard once you figure it out. Before you figure it out, it ain't so easy. There are a lot of tutorials out there that could help you get started. Doing a little work on your own first will help you get more out of someone trying to explain them to you cold.

http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~lead/SkewT_Home.html
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~hou...ous/Skew-T.pdf
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/24h...-logp-diagrams

There really isn't a magic bullet for doing soaring forecasting it takes a little work. Forecasting for your local club is a great way to get serious, after all the crap your buddies give you, you either learn to get it right or quit. Need + Peer Pressure = Success, and the amount of crap they give you is a cube function of inaccuracy.

Oh, and after you learn to read the Skew-T, you get to figure out which of the models is lying to you today, and which one you need to believe. Good judgement is the result of bad experience.

SF


  #7  
Old February 13th 16, 04:17 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Charlie M. (UH & 002 owner/pilot)
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Default Weather forecasting experts at SSA Convention

On Friday, February 12, 2016 at 6:53:51 PM UTC-5, SF wrote:
Like most things, reading a Skew-T isn't that hard once you figure it out.. Before you figure it out, it ain't so easy. There are a lot of tutorials out there that could help you get started. Doing a little work on your own first will help you get more out of someone trying to explain them to you cold.

http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~lead/SkewT_Home.html
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~hou...ous/Skew-T.pdf
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/24h...-logp-diagrams

There really isn't a magic bullet for doing soaring forecasting it takes a little work. Forecasting for your local club is a great way to get serious, after all the crap your buddies give you, you either learn to get it right or quit. Need + Peer Pressure = Success, and the amount of crap they give you is a cube function of inaccuracy.

Oh, and after you learn to read the Skew-T, you get to figure out which of the models is lying to you today, and which one you need to believe. Good judgement is the result of bad experience.

SF


Well, not everyone can "read & understand", some do better with "visual aids", thus a few charts (even if just doctored in MS paint or similar) to say, this looks like a good day, this looks like a bad day, here is a so-so day, and why.
  #8  
Old February 13th 16, 04:35 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Ramy[_2_]
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Default Weather forecasting experts at SSA Convention

Interesting that blipmap and Dr.Jack is not mentioned.
While I think it is very educating to learn all the forecasting tools, and they can be very helpful for long term forecasting, I found that all I ever need to be able to predict the weather with over 90% accuracy up to 3 days in advance is blipmap and RASP (combined with NWS forecast discussion). I never used any other tool since blipmap was introduced 15 years ago. Seem to work well for me.

Ramy
  #9  
Old February 13th 16, 08:36 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
WaltWX[_2_]
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Default Weather forecasting experts at SSA Convention

On Friday, February 12, 2016 at 7:35:58 PM UTC-8, Ramy wrote:
I found that all I ever need to be able to predict the weather with over 90% accuracy up to 3 days in advance is blipmap and RASP (combined with NWS forecast discussion). I never used any other tool since blipmap was introduced 15 years ago. Seem to work well for me.

Ramy


Ramy,

I agree that the a quick look of two dimensional BLIPMAP thermal heights and cu cloud coverage out for a couple of days (NAM) is a very efficient way of planning soaring flights. RASP, if available in your region, gives fine detail of convergence lines as well.

However, Skew-T plots no longer work on his site probably because they rely on the browser java plugin (similar problem with XCSkies). You can pull up on BLIMAP a static Skew-T graphic (Java browser plugins are going away soon - ESRL NOAA has an html5 version).

A more detailed look at the soundings over a soaring area gives more detail about trigger times, thermal height over the day, and wind profiles. Although that level of detail takes more time to examine, it can be useful. Software tools for analyzing soundings is the subject of my SSA 2016 Greenville presentation. There I will give an overview of the ESRL NOAA Interactive Skew-T, BUFKIT for time series plots, and the RAOB.com program. Detailed "how to use" videos will be provided. All this will be posted here and other places soon ...

Walt Rogers WX

  #10  
Old February 14th 16, 12:59 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Default Weather forecasting experts at SSA Convention

Walt I sure hate having to miss your presentation but such is life. I look forward to reviewing your info on line when you can get the time to post it.. I still remember you in minden helping out on the wx tasking side in the 70's and flying your asw15. The only beef we had was when you and doug called for a marginal soaring day with trigger temp projected to happen in about 4 hours while a bunch of us were staring out the window watching the cu's popping already popping lol
Dan
 




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