Too many accidents

Every time an aircraft leaves the ground, the potential for a fatal accident exists. There is no denying that Gravity and Aerodynamics are essentially mortal enemies. We use our hard won skills to deal with aerodynamics, but patiently and inexorably, the Law of Gravity awaits our tiniest mistake.

Since millions of flights are attempted each year, by millions of pilots, there will always be accidents. Education and ongoing training may mitigate some accidents, but statistically, they will happen more or less often, and there is simply no way to predict whether there is an increasing or decreasing trend from year to year.

This has been a bad year. Next year might be worse. Or, there might be no fatalities at all. The basic rule is that no single accident directly affects the likelihood of YOU having an accident yourself. In fact, the subconscious memory of a friend who succumbed to an aircraft accident "might" make you more cognizant of your limitations. A year with no fatalities "might" make you more complacent, and encourage less than perfect cockpit performance and judgment.

Think sharp at all times. Remember your friends. Learn, and don't fall into the trap that a safe year means that accidents will finally go away. They won't. We do this, hopefully, by recognizing that aviation is inherently risky, but the rewards of flight somehow make it worth the expense and effort.. Try to keep in mind that we don't NEED to do this. We do it by choice, and the desire to fly must always be tempered by things that may affect our ability to fly well.

Currency, weather conditions, peer pressure, mental attitude and a myriad of other factors may suggest that, perhaps "today" should be dedicated to some neglected maintenance, maybe a wash and wax job and a reconnect to why we want to fly, as well as a reflection of the lessons we might learn from the untimely passing of our pilot brethren.

Be safe my friends, but FLY!

On Wednesday, September 5, 2018 at 6:06:20 PM UTC-7, wrote:
Every time an aircraft leaves the ground, the potential for a fatal accident exists. There is no denying that Gravity and Aerodynamics are essentially mortal enemies. We use our hard won skills to deal with aerodynamics, but patiently and inexorably, the Law of Gravity awaits our tiniest mistake.

Since millions of flights are attempted each year, by millions of pilots, there will always be accidents. Education and ongoing training may mitigate some accidents, but statistically, they will happen more or less often, and there is simply no way to predict whether there is an increasing or decreasing trend from year to year.

This has been a bad year. Next year might be worse. Or, there might be no fatalities at all. The basic rule is that no single accident directly affects the likelihood of YOU having an accident yourself. In fact, the subconscious memory of a friend who succumbed to an aircraft accident "might" make you more cognizant of your limitations. A year with no fatalities "might" make you more complacent, and encourage less than perfect cockpit performance and judgment.

Think sharp at all times. Remember your friends. Learn, and don't fall into the trap that a safe year means that accidents will finally go away. They won't. We do this, hopefully, by recognizing that aviation is inherently risky, but the rewards of flight somehow make it worth the expense and effort. Try to keep in mind that we don't NEED to do this. We do it by choice, and the desire to fly must always be tempered by things that may affect our ability to fly well.

Currency, weather conditions, peer pressure, mental attitude and a myriad of other factors may suggest that, perhaps "today" should be dedicated to some neglected maintenance, maybe a wash and wax job and a reconnect to why we want to fly, as well as a reflection of the lessons we might learn from the untimely passing of our pilot brethren.

Be safe my friends, but FLY!

I have had a moment with these spat of mishaps. I am troubled by the experience/competence level of the pilots in these accidents. I knew Sergio, his energy was a gift to soaring and to the friends at Truckee. Losing commercial pilots, with their faire's, whom fly daily. I lost a good friend last week in east county of San Diego in a power airplane. He was one of those special pilots whom could just make any plane dance, a real Bob Hoover type who ran a sterile cockpit. He was a CFI taking another CFI up to do a few spins in a Citabria. Did one spin all the way to the deck. Thanks Mark, for your words of encouragement to keep flying and keep safe.

I don't think a high level of experience or competence will ever protect us against an insidious form of complacency that makes us sometimes forget the most elementary safety procedures. The slightest disturbance during the pre-flight or the checklist can make us forget to do something we allways took for granted. This summer, for the first time in almost 40 years of gliding, I took off with airbrakes unlocked. I had been disturbed during the preflight and hadn't followed my ususal checklist procedure while taking a winch launch at another airfield.

When you look at gliding accidents, it seems to me there are three kinds of pilots who are most susceptible to be involved in accidents: the very inexperienced, the ones who begin to think of themselves as being experienced, and the too experienced (look at the list in the well known Gantenbrink paper on safety)... Not much room between those three, I'm afraid.

Stéphane

Actually, it appears to me that it is sort of the other way around. Last night I did an informal survey of accident data over the last 5 years, and it appears to me that inexperienced pilots rarely have fatal accidents. I could only find a couple that involved pilots with less than 1000 hours total time.

Instead, the themes that seem to jump out a

- Experienced or highly experienced pilots
- Older pilots (most were in their 60s or 70s)
- Perhaps somewhat limited experience in make/model

I think it is possible that overconfidence in the face of declining physical ability is a big contributor to fatal accidents.

I don't know if this would hold up to rigorous statistical analysis. For example, the NTSB reports only total time, not total glider time. Perhaps it is just a reflection of our pilot demographic. Still, it is food for thought, especially when I look in the mirror.

I'm 62 years old with 4000 hours.

Lynn Alley
"2KA"

At 14:44 06 September 2018, 2KA wrote:
Actually, it appears to me that it is sort of the other way around. Last
n=
ight I did an informal survey of accident data over the last 5 years, and
i=
t appears to me that inexperienced pilots rarely have fatal accidents. I
c=
ould only find a couple that involved pilots with less than 1000 hours
tota=
l time.

Instead, the themes that seem to jump out a

- Experienced or highly experienced pilots
- Older pilots (most were in their 60s or 70s)
- Perhaps somewhat limited experience in make/model

I think it is possible that overconfidence in the face of declining
physica=
l ability is a big contributor to fatal accidents.

I don't know if this would hold up to rigorous statistical analysis. For
e=
xample, the NTSB reports only total time, not total glider time. Perhaps
i=
t is just a reflection of our pilot demographic. Still, it is food for
tho=
ught, especially when I look in the mirror.

I'm 62 years old with 4000 hours.

Lynn Alley
"2KA"

Try this link to a very good spin demo
Jon

https://www.youtube.com/attribution_...eature%3Dshare

Le jeudi 6 septembre 2018 17:00:07 UTC+2, Jonathon May a écritÂ*:

https://www.youtube.com/attribution_...eature%3Dshare

This is an excellent video.

On Thursday, September 6, 2018 at 7:44:44 AM UTC-7, 2KA wrote:
Actually, it appears to me that it is sort of the other way around. Last night I did an informal survey of accident data over the last 5 years, and it appears to me that inexperienced pilots rarely have fatal accidents. I could only find a couple that involved pilots with less than 1000 hours total time.

Instead, the themes that seem to jump out a

- Experienced or highly experienced pilots
- Older pilots (most were in their 60s or 70s)
- Perhaps somewhat limited experience in make/model

I think it is possible that overconfidence in the face of declining physical ability is a big contributor to fatal accidents.

I don't know if this would hold up to rigorous statistical analysis. For example, the NTSB reports only total time, not total glider time. Perhaps it is just a reflection of our pilot demographic. Still, it is food for thought, especially when I look in the mirror.

I'm 62 years old with 4000 hours.

Lynn Alley
"2KA"

My Father used to teach a college course "The Psychology of Aging". Never took it, too bad. I usually shave in the shower so I don't look at that old man I don't recognize in the mirror. I still see myself as a strapping 40 year old. Age might have something to do failure to get out of a doomed aircraft.

While I respect Tom Knauff, his teachings and writings, I know my CFI friend Dave, whom died in a planned spin with another CFI last week, knew what a rudder does, Sergio, Don, all very experienced. These are not the guys whom skills or knowledge are questioned. For that matter how did Peter Maask spin in, he knew what a rudder does, and I had heard that his trace showed safe speeds. I am afraid we will not know what caused these accidents so we can learn how not to experience these accidents. Why did Matt Wright still have max turn puts at 60 degrees bank on that day?

On 06/09/2018 17:16, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:

While I respect Tom Knauff, his teachings and writings, I know my CFI
friend Dave, whom died in a planned spin with another CFI last week,
knew what a rudder does, Sergio, Don, all very experienced. These
are not the guys whom skills or knowledge are questioned. For that
matter how did Peter Maask spin in, he knew what a rudder does, and I
had heard that his trace showed safe speeds. I am afraid we will not
know what caused these accidents so we can learn how not to
experience these accidents. Why did Matt Wright still have max turn
puts at 60 degrees bank on that day?


This is a very worrying question. I wonder what portion of recent
fatalities involve current, highly experienced but older pilots making
unexplained mistakes?

Anecdotally, I notice that quite a few of these accidents involve 2
seaters. Maybe when there are two, experienced, pilots on board, the
dynamics change - both waiting for each other to take control and
recover when things go wrong?

Maybe there have just been so many other advancements in technology like
weather forecasting, self launching, navigation, instrumentation etc
that experienced pilots are flying much further on a regular basis and
they are just more exposed to the next statistically random event?

On Tuesday, September 11, 2018 at 3:15:12 AM UTC-4, Ian wrote:
On 06/09/2018 17:16, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:

While I respect Tom Knauff, his teachings and writings, I know my CFI
friend Dave, whom died in a planned spin with another CFI last week,
knew what a rudder does, Sergio, Don, all very experienced. These
are not the guys whom skills or knowledge are questioned. For that
matter how did Peter Maask spin in, he knew what a rudder does, and I
had heard that his trace showed safe speeds. I am afraid we will not
know what caused these accidents so we can learn how not to
experience these accidents. Why did Matt Wright still have max turn
puts at 60 degrees bank on that day?


This is a very worrying question. I wonder what portion of recent
fatalities involve current, highly experienced but older pilots making
unexplained mistakes?

Anecdotally, I notice that quite a few of these accidents involve 2
seaters. Maybe when there are two, experienced, pilots on board, the
dynamics change - both waiting for each other to take control and
recover when things go wrong?

Maybe there have just been so many other advancements in technology like
weather forecasting, self launching, navigation, instrumentation etc
that experienced pilots are flying much further on a regular basis and
they are just more exposed to the next statistically random event?

There is an old joke, based on a bit of truth like all good jokes, that the most dangerous crew in any aircraft is two instructors.

On 9/11/2018 1:15 AM, Ian wrote:
Anecdotally, I notice that quite a few of these accidents involve 2
seaters. Maybe when there are two, experienced, pilots on board, the
dynamics change - both waiting for each other to take control and
recover when things go wrong?

Not an accident, but...

I was once in the back of my friend's two seater and we had been in a
straight line cruise towards home for quite some time.Â* At about 5-10
miles out he said that he'd take over now.Â* What?Â* I thought you were
flying!

There should never be waiting to take over; the pilot flying should take
action when something goes wrong.Â* And there should always be a positive
transfer of control when switching over.

--
Dan, 5J